تعیین خلأ عملکرد سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) در استان گلستان

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 4، دوره 12، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 46، بهمن 1399، صفحه 613-633  

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/agry.2020.37574

نویسندگان

امیر دادرسی¹؛ بنیامین ترابی ²؛ اصغر رحیمی¹؛ افشین سلطانی²؛ ابراهیم زینلی²

¹گروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان، ایران.

²گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران.

چکیده

تحلیل خلأ عملکرد یک روش کمّی برای افزایش احتمالی ظرفیت تولید گیاهان زراعی در یک ناحیه مشخص می‌باشد و یکی از مهم‌ترین بخش­های طراحی راهبردهای تأمین غذا در مقیاس منطقه­ای، ملی و جهانی است. در این راستا، با استفاده از مدل شبیه‏سازی SSM-iCrop2 مقدار عملکرد پتانسیل سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) برآورد شد و سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزار GIS و به‌کمک دو روش گیگا و درون‌یابی مقادیر عملکرد پتانسیل، عملکرد واقعی، خلأ عملکرد برای استان گلستان محاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان داد که عملکرد واقعی استان گلستان (میانگین 10 ساله مورد بررسی) براساس گزارش جهاد کشاورزی معادل 22 تن در هکتار می­باشد. همچنین عملکرد واقعی محاسبه شده براساس روش گیگا معادل 20 تن در هکتار و براساس روش درون‌یابی نیز 22 تن در هکتار به‌دست آمد. حداکثر عملکرد غده گزارش شده توسط کشاورزان 55 تن بوده است که بر این اساس مقدار عملکرد پتانسیل شبیه‌سازی شده ارزیابی گردید. در روش گیگا 52 تن در هکتار و در روش درون‌یابی 42 تن در هکتار به‌دست آمد. که این امر نشان ار دقت بالای روش گیگا در تخمین عملکرد پتانسیل دارد. مقدار خلأ عملکرد و عملکرد نسبی مشاهده شده برابر با 33 تن در هکتار و 40 درصد، برای روش گیگا معادل 33 تن در هکتار و 38 درصد و در روش درون‌یابی برابر با20 تن در هکتار و 52 درصد به‌دست آمد. با مقایسه دو روش درون‌یابی و گیگا، می­توان نتیجه گرفت هر دو روش، تخمین نسبتاً خوبی از مقدار عملکرد واقعی داشتند، ولی روش گیگا عملکرد پتانسیل را بهتر از روش درون‌یابی پیش‌بینی کرد. براساس داده­های مورد نیاز اجرای مدل در سطح ملی، قابلیت مقایسه نتایج با تحقیقات صورت گرفته در اقلیم­های مشابه در سراسر دنیا، تخمین عملکرد پتانسیل براساس مناطق عمده کاشت محصولات، روش گیگا به­عنوان روش برتر می­تواند برای تخمین خلأ عملکرد در سطح کشور و برای سایر محصولات نیز مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

امنیت غذایی؛ سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی GIS))؛ عملکرد پتانسیل

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