برآورد ظرفیت افزایش تولید جو آبی در ایران از طریق حذف خلأ عملکرد بر اساس روش گیگا

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 9، دوره 13، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 48، تیر 1400، صفحه 325-344   

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v13i2.81833

نویسندگان

امید الستی¹؛ ابراهیم زینلی^{* 2}؛ افشین سلطانی²؛ بنیامین ترابی²

¹گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران.

²گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

در این پژوهش میزان خلأ عملکرد در مناطق اصلی زیر کشت جو آبی کشور طی سال‌های زراعی (1380-1394) از طریق دستورالعمل اطلس جهانی خلأ عملکرد (گیگا) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. ابتدا مناطق اصلی تولید جو آبی در کشور تعیین شدند؛ مناطقی که بیش از 85 درصد جو کشور در آن­ها تولید می­شود. 12 منطقه اقلیمی اصلی با استفاده از نقشه‌های پهنه‌بندی اقلیمی گیگا و پراکنش سطح زیر کشت جو آبی شناسایی شدند. پس از آن، 48 ایستگاه هواشناسی مرجع درون مناطق اقلیمی اصلی بر‌اساس میزان پراکنش سطح زیر کشت آن‌ها انتخاب گردید. تخمین خلأ عملکرد در این مطالعه حاصل اختلاف بین مقادیر پتانسیل عملکرد برآورد شده توسط مدل SSM-iCrop2 و عملکرد واقعی گزارش‌شده جهاد کشاورزی در هر RWS طی 15 سال زراعی (1394- 1380) می‌باشد. با استفاده از رویکرد پایین به بالای دستورالعمل گیگا، مقادیر خلأ عملکرد جو آبی در سطح ایستگاه‌های مرجع برآورد شده و سپس به مناطق اقلیمی اصلی و در نهایت، به کل کشور تعمیم داده شد. تعمیم نتایج از سطح ایستگاه‌ها به مناطق اقلیمی نشان داد که دامنه تغییرات متوسط پتانسیل عملکرد برآورد شده در اقلیم‌های اصلی تولید جو آبی بین 5283 تا 8286 با میانگین 7090 کیلوگرم در هکتار بود، در حالی‌که دامنه عملکردهای واقعی بین 1406 و 3723 با متوسط 3009 کیلوگرم در هکتار در سطح کشور بود. در حال حاضر بین 3237 تا 4697 و به­طور متوسط 4081 کیلوگرم در هکتار خلأ در زمین‌های زراعی جو آبی کشور مشاهده می‌شود. به‌عبارت دیگر، در مناطق اقلیمی اصلی دامنه خلأ عملکرد (%) بین 50 تا 76 و به­طور متوسط 58 درصد در سطح مزارع جو آبی کشور برآورد شد. طبق این مطالعه می‌توان نتیجه‌گیری کرد که با حذف میزان خلأ برآورد شده از طریق بهبود شرایط مدیریتی و راهکارهای به‌نژادی-زراعی در زمین‌های زراعی جو آبی می­توان مقدار تولید آن در کشور را از 21/2 میلیون تن در شرایط فعلی به 17/4 میلیون تن افزایش داد. این افزایش تولید (96/1 میلیون تن) می­تواند بخش قابل توجهی از نیاز کشور به جو را تأمین کرده و کشور را به‌سمت خودکفایی تولید این محصول نزدیک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

اطلس جهانی؛ پتانسیل عملکرد؛ عملکرد واقعی؛ مدل شبیه‌سازی گیاهی

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