ارزیابی مدل LINTUL1-POTATO در شبیه‌سازی مراحل نمو و عملکرد پتانسیل کشت بهاره سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) در ایران

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 11 دی 1402

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v1i1.71619

نویسندگان

علیرضا محمدی^* ؛ علیرضا کوچکی؛ مهدی نصیری محلاتی

فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) جایگاه ویژه‌ای در اکوسیستم های زراعی و تغذیه مردم ایران دارد. استفاده از مدل های شبیه‌سازی در پیش‌بینی صحیح مراحل فنولوژی و تعیین عملکرد پتانسیل مناطق تولید به منظور برنامه‌ریزی برای افزایش تولید ضروری است. یکی از متداول ترین مدل شبیه‌سازی مراحل نمو سیب‌زمینی در شرایط پتانسیل LINTUL1-POTATO است. این مدل تغییرات روزانه متغیرهای رشد و عملکرد را براساس گام زمانی روزانه شبیه‌سازی می‌کند. به منظور ارزیابی این مدل در کشت بهاره 10 شهر به عنوان ایستگاه مطالعاتی در اقلیم‌های مختلف کشور انتخاب شدند. داده های بلند مدت آب و هوایی شامل درجه حرارت، تشعشع روزانه، اطلاعات مربوط به مراحل نمو (پنج ایستگاه) و اطلاعات عملکرد کل ایستگاه ها جمع‌آوری گردید. با تحلیل نتایج نمودار جعبه ای (باکس پلات) حداکثر عملکرد برای هر ایستگاه مطالعاتی به عنوان تقریبی از عملکرد پتانسیل مشاهده شده تعیین گردید. واسنجی مدل با تغییر برخی پارامترها مطابق با شرایط آب ‌و ‌هوای ایران انجام و آزمون‌های آماری مختلف نشان داد که مدل قادر است فواصل زمانی کاشت تا شروع گل‌دهی،گل‌دهی تا رسید‌گی و نیز عملکرد سیب‌زمینی را با دقت قابل قبولی شبیه‌سازی نماید. نتایج اعتبارسنجی نشان داد که مدل طول مرحله کاشت تا شروع گل‌دهی را در دامنه 59 تا 78 روز، طول مرحله شروع گل‌دهی تا رسیدن در محدوده 43 تا 98 روز و عملکرد را بین 55 تا 76 تن در هکتار شبیه‌سازی نمود. بین مقادیر واقعی و شبیه‌سازی شده تفاوت معنی‌داری (05/0≤ p) مشاهده نشد. ضریب تغییرات (CV) مقادیر متغیرهای شبیه‌سازی شده همواره کمتر از10 درصد بود. همچنین مرحله کاشت تا گل‌دهی (78/0=R2 و 82/3=RSME%)، مرحله گل‌دهی تا رسیدن (81/0=R2 و 04/11=RSME%) و در نهایت، عملکرد (63/0=R2 و 91/3=RSME%) به خوبی شبیه‌سازی شد. شاخص تطابق (93/0-88/0) متغیرهای مورد بررسی در حد قابل قبول بود. به طورکلی، نتایج نشان داد از این مدل می‌توان برای پیش‌بینی مراحل نمو و عملکرد پتانسیل سیب‌زمینی در کشت بهاره در مناطق مختلف ایران استفاده نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

باکس پلات؛ کاشت تا شروع گل‌دهی؛ گل‌دهی تا رسیدن؛ مراحل فنولوژی

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