تبخیر از دریاچه‌ها و مخازن سدها: تحلیل حساسیت و رتبه‌بندی روش‌های موجود

آب و خاک

مقاله 4، دوره 29، شماره 2، خرداد 1394، صفحه 350-373  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v0i0.33253

نویسندگان

میثم مجیدی ¹؛ امین علیزاده¹؛ مجید وظیفه دوست²؛ علیرضا فریدحسینی ¹

¹دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

²دانشگاه گیلان

چکیده

پیچیدگی فرایند تبخیر از پیکره‌های آبی مانند دریاچه‌ها و مخازن سدها، کمبود اطلاعات کافی و معتبر مورد نیاز و از طرفی عدم اتکاء مدیریت این منابع و مخازن به داده‌های زمانی و مکانی دقیق‌تر، موجب کند شدن پیشرفت‌های تحقیقاتی و کاربردی در این زمینه نسبت به سایر مولفه‌های هیدرولوژیکی شده است. مدیریت و بهره‌برداری از ذخایر سدها به‌ویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک نیاز به برآوردهای مطمئن‌تری از تبخیر دارد. این وضعیت در شرایطی مانند سد دوستی که منبع استراتژیک تامین بخش وسیعی از آب شرب مشهد نیز می‌باشد، اهمیتی دوچندان می‌یابد. تحقیق حاضر با هدف ارزیابی جامع روش‌های برآورد تبخیر از سطح آب و مقایسه آن‌ها با بیلان انرژی دریاچه سد دوستی با استفاده از داده‌های اندازه‌گیری شده، انجام پذیرفت. به منظور بررسی رفتار روش‌های مختلف ضمن مقایسات سالانه، ماهانه و روزانه، تحلیل حساسیت این مدل‌ها به داده‌های ورودی به منظور سنجش پایداری برآوردهای حاصل از هر روش نیز انجام پذیرفت. در نهایت 19 روش برآورد تبخیر بر اساس بیلان انرژی دریاچه به لحاظ دقت برآوردها رتبه‌بندی گردیدند. بر اساس نتایج حاصل شده، روش‌های جنسن ـ هیز، مککینک، دبروین و پنمن، با مقادیر RMSD به ترتیب برابر با 2/1، 34/1، 62/1 و 65/1 میلی‌متر بر روز نتایج مطلوب‌تری نسبت به سایر روش‌ها حاصل نمودند. در این میان، روش‌های جنسن ـ هیز و مککینک، به دلیل سادگی، دقت مطلوب، داده‌های ورودی اندک و حساسیت کمتر به این داده‌ها، گزینه‌های مناسب‌تر و مقرون به صرفه‌ای برای برآورد تبخیر از دریاچه سد دوستی هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

بیلان انرژی؛ تحلیل حساسیت؛ روش‌های برآورد تبخیر؛ سد دوستی

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