پایش عملکرد گندم و چغندرقند در استان خراسان: 2- برآورد خلاء عملکرد

پژوهشهای زراعی ایران

مقاله 2، دوره 17، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 53، فروردین 1398، صفحه 15-38   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/gsc.v17i1.62557

نویسندگان

علیرضا کوچکی^* ؛ مهدی نصیری محلاتی

دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

در این تحقیق عملکرد پتانسیل و خلاء عملکرد گندم آبی و چغندرقند در استان خراسان رضوی طی دوره‌ای 10 ساله (1393-1384) مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. به این منظور بر اساس داده‌های درازمدت هواشناسی 17 شهرستان و با استفاده از آنالیز خوشه‌ای سه ناحیه اقلیمی کشاورزی در استان خراسان رضوی از یکدیگر تفکیک شدند. پیش‌بینی عملکرد پتانسیل با استفاده از مدل شبیه‌سازی LINTUL1 انجام شد و پیش از استفاده از آن بر مبنای داده‌های عملکرد در معرض تعیین اعتبار متقابل قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج شبیه‌سازی، عملکرد پتانسیل (YP) گندم آبی در نواحی اقلیمی کشاورزی 1 (نیمه‌خشک و معتدل)، 2 (خشک و گرم) و 3 (نیمه‌خشک و گرم) به‌ترتیب 7248، 6478 و 7852 و درکل استان 6936 کیلوگرم در هکتار برآورد شد. در حدود 74 درصد از تغییرات سالانه YP گندم آبی ناشی از تغییر در طول دوره پر شدن دانه به دلیل افزایش درجه حرارت می‌باشد. خلاء عملکرد گندم آبی در هر سه ناحیه در طی 5 سال ابتدای دوره به‌طور نسبی افزایش یافته و به حدود 4 تن در هکتار رسید ولی از سال 1390 خلاء عملکرد در حال کاهش بوده به‌طوری‌که میزان خلاء قابل مهار آن در سال 93 بین 50/0-48/0 عملکرد پتانسیل بوده است. میانگین عملکرد پتانسیل گندم دیم در نواحی اقلیمی بین 2800-2000 کیلوگرم در هکتار برآورد شد و بر این اساس میانگین خلاء نسبی استان در محدوده 8/0-75/0 به‌دست آمد. میانگین 10 ساله عملکرد پتانسیل چغندرقند در نواحی اقلیمی استان خراسان رضوی بین t ha-1 88-78 پیش‌بینی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

اطلس جهانی خلاء عملکرد؛ عملکرد پتانسیل؛ خلاء قابل مهار؛ تعیین اعتبار مثقابل

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