ارزیابی شاخص اطمینان پذیری و برآورد سطوح تخصیص منابع آب در تشکل های آب بران شبکۀ البرز

آب و خاک

مقاله 8، دوره 29، شماره 5، دی 1394، صفحه 1232-1246  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v29i5.34561

نویسندگان

سیده فاطمه هاشمی؛ علی شاهنظری

دانشگاه کشارزی و منابع طبیعی، ساری

چکیده

تشکیل تشکل های آب بران در اراضی تحت پوشش برخی از شبکه های آبیاری و زهکشی پایاب سدها، یکی از الگوهای انتقال مدیریت آب از بخش دولتی به مصرف کنندگان آب است. از سویی دیگر، با توجه به مفاهیم گستردۀ مدیریت مشارکت مدار، عملکرد این تشکل ها بایستی مورد ارزیابی و تحلیل قرار گیرد. هدف از این مطالعه ارزیابی شاخص اطمینان پذیری به‌عنوان یکی از شاخص های عملکردی تشکل های آب بران در پروژه یکپارچه آب و خاک شبکه آبیاری سد البرز واقع در حوضه رودخانه بابل است. در این راستا، واحدهای عمرانی به 20 تشکل آب بران تقسیم گردید و شبیه سازی بیلان منابع و مصارف با استفاده از مدل مایک بیسین در طی 28 سال به‌صورت ماهانه انجام شد. همچنین قابلیت تأمین در سطح 20 و 80 درصد انتخاب و مورد مقایسه قرار می گیرد تا سطوح تخصیصات تأمین آب تعیین گردد. نتایج مطالعه نشان می دهد که میانگین اطمینان پذیری شبکۀ البرز حدوداً 70 درصد می باشد و حجم قابل تأمین با احتمال وقوع 20 و 80 درصد تأمین به ترتیب 347 و 198 میلیون متر مکعب است که به ترتیب سطوح تخصیص کل و سطوح تخصیص یک را شامل می شود و تفاضل این دو از هم، سطح تخصیص 2 را به دست می دهد. این مسئله می-تواند به‌عنوان مبنایی در جهت برآورد بیلان آب در طی دوره های خشکی و تری با اعمال سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی در برداشت از آب‌بندان و آبخوان شبکۀ البرز مورد توجه برنامه ریزان بخش آب قرار گیرد. همچنین نتایج حاصل از برآورد قابلیت اطمینان پذیری نشان می دهد که در تشکل-هایی که از نظر هر دو مفهوم اولویت مکانی، بالاترین اولویت را به خود اختصاص داده اند، قابلیت اطمینان پذیری حدوداً 60 درصد می باشد که نشان‌دهندۀ کمبودهای قابل ملاحظه بوده که در این موارد رفع کمبودها مستلزم بهره گیری از سایر منابع می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

بیلان آب؛ دوره های خشکی و تری؛ شاخص عملکردی؛ مدل مایک بیسین؛ مدیریت مشارکت مدار

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