بررسی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم در آینده نزدیک بر تولید گندم آبی منطقه تربت جام: مطالعه موردی

پژوهشهای زراعی ایران

مقاله 12، دوره 17، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 53، فروردین 1398، صفحه 169-186   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/gsc.v17i1.74284

نویسندگان

سید فرهاد صابرعلی^{* 1}؛ حسین نستری نصرآبادی²؛ محمد دوستخواه احمدی³

¹مجتمع آموزش عالی تربت جام

²مجتمع آموزش عالی کشاورزی و دامپروری تربت جام

³اداره جهاد کشاورزی تربت جام، خراسان رضوی

چکیده

کشاورزی، که عامل تأمین نیاز غذایی و ثبات اقتصادی و امنیتی هر جامعه‌ای است، می‌تواند تحت تاثیر نوسانات اقلیمی هر منطقه قرار گیرد. بررسی تاثیر اقلیم بر تولید محصولات زراعی همچون گندم که یک محصول راهبردی در تأمین امنیت غذایی جامعه ایرانی است از اهمیت دوچندانی برخوردار است. هدف از این مطالعه پیش‌بینی اثرات تغیر اقلیم در آینده نزدیک بر عملکرد گندم آبی در منطقه تربت‌جام با بیشترین سطح زیر کشت در استان خراسان رضوی بود. در این تحقیق از برنامه MarkSim تحت چهار سناریوی انتشار RCP2.6، RCP4.5، RCP6 و RCP8.5 برای تولید داده‌های اقلیمی در دوره آینده نزدیک (2047-2018) استفاده شد. در نهایت داده‌های اقلیمی خروجی از برنامه MarkSim به‌عنوان داده‌های آب و هوایی ورودی برای اجرای مدل شبیه‌سازی رشد گیاهان زراعی DSSAT مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج شبیه‌سازی رشد گندم آبی در دوره پایه نشان داد که این گیاه کاهش دوره رشد و افزایش تولید ماده خشک و عملکرد را در دوره 20 ساله اخیر تجربه کرده است. افزایش بارش‌های بهاری و همچنین افزایش دما در طول فصول سرد سال ازجمله دلایل این افزایش بوده است. همچنین افزایش دما در طول فصل سرد سال و افزایش غلظت دی‌اکسید کربن در آینده نزدیک تحت سناریوهای مختلف تغییر اقلیم افزایش حدود 20 تا 25 درصدی تولید دانه گندم را باعث خواهند شد. اگرچه میزان این افزایش تولید در خاک‌های سبک‌تر کمتر از خاک‌های سنگین‌تر منطقه بود. همچنین مشخص گردید، با وجود احتمال کاهش حداقل 300 متر مکعب آب آبیاری در هر هکتار در طول دوره رشد گندم در 30 سال آینده، در نهایت با به‌کار‌گیری سیستم‌های آبیاری با راندمان بالاتر احتمالاً افزایش تولید با تغییرات چندانی روبه‌رو نخواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

افزایش دما؛ سناریوی‎ ‎انتشار؛ شبیه سازی؛ ‏DSSAT؛ MarkSim

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