تغییرات برخی شاخص های کم آبی تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم در حوضه آبریز تنگ پنج سزار

آب و خاک

مقاله 13، دوره 30، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 45، اردیبهشت 1395، صفحه 275-289   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v30i1.38383

نویسندگان

ملیحه مزین^{* 1}؛ علی محمد آخوندعلی²؛ علیرضا مساح بوانی³؛ فریدون رادمنش⁴

¹دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء بهبهان

²چمران اهواز

³پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران

⁴دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

چکیده

با توجه به اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب و هیدرولوژی، تغییرات جریان کم آبی به عنوان بخش مهمی از چرخه آب، مورد توجه محققین، مدیران و استفاده کنندگاه از آب در زمینه‌های مختلف می باشد. رشد جمعیت و کاهش سرانه آب، محدودیت منابع آبی تجدیدپذیر، همچنین وقوع خشکسالی‌های پر تکرار در دهه های اخیر در نقاط مختلف جهان، اهمیت پیش بینی وضعیت جریان رودخانه را خصوصاً در فصول خشک سال به منظور مدیریت منابع آبی منطقه ضروری می سازد. شاخص‌های مختلفی به منظور سنجش جریان کم آبی یک منطقه وجود دارند. در این تحقیق اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر سه شاخص Q70، Q90 و Q95 مستخرج از منحنی تداوم جریان در حوزه آبریز رودخانه سزار در دوره آتی 2040-2011 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به منظور لحاظ کردن عدم قطعیت مدل‌های AOGCM در تولید سناریوهای اقلیمی از 10 مدل گردش عمومی جو استفاده و تاثیر سناریوهای مذکور در وضعیت جریان رودخانه، پس از ریزمقیاس نمایی توسط مدل LARS-WG، با استفاده از مدل مفهومی بارش-رواناب IHACRES مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. با توجه به نتایج، تغییرات Q70 از 26- درصد تا 190 درصد، Q90 از 54- درصد تا 221 درصد و Q95 از 64- درصد تا 332 درصد در زیرحوضه‌های مختلف میباشد. نتایج نشان از افزایش نسبی مقادیر شاخص‌های کم آبی در زیرحوضه‌های مورد مطالعه در دوره آتی مورد مطالعه دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تحلیل فراوانی؛ مدل گردش عمومی جو؛ مدل LARS-WG؛ منحنی تداوم جریان؛ ویژگی های کمبود

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