تحلیل روند تغییرات زمانی و مکانی دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی شمال غرب کشور بر اساس دو شاخص خشکسالی SPI و RAI

آب و خاک

مقاله 1، دوره 30، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 46، خرداد 1395، صفحه 655-671   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v30i2.39679

نویسندگان

مجید منتصری؛ بابک امیرعطایی^* ؛ کیوان خلیلی

دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

روند تغییرات بارندگی در یک منطقه می تواند نقش بسزایی در تحلیل تغییرات زمانی و مکانی خشکسالی داشته باشد. در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده های بارندگی 39 ایستگاه سینوپتیک واقع در شمال غرب کشور (2010-1986)، ابتدا سری های زمانی دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی بر اساس دو شاخص خشکسالی بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) و ناهنجاری بارندگی (RAI) تعیین گردیده، سپس به بررسی روند تغییرات دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی بر اساس سری مقادیر SPI و RAI با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتریک من- کندال با حذف اثر معنی داری تمامی ضرایب خود همبستگی با تأخیرهای مختلف پرداخته شده است. نتایج علاوه بر تأکید حساسیت روش من- کندال به ضرایب خود همبستگی معنی دار با تأخیرهای مختلف در تعیین روند دوره‏های خشکسالی و ترسالی، بیانگر وجود روند منفی (نزولی) در اکثر ایستگاه ها و وجود روند منفی معنی دار (در سطح اطمینان 95%) در ایستگاه های غرب منطقه مطالعاتی می باشد. همچنین شیب خط روند در اکثر ایستگاه های مطالعاتی منفی بوده و بیشترین شیب منفی بر اساس شاخص های مذکور در ایستگاه مراغه مشاهده گردید. در نهایت، نتایج نشان داد که می توان از هر دو شاخص خشکسالی SPI و RAI صرفاً برای تعیین روند تغییرات دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی به دلیل همبستگی بالای دو شاخص خشکسالی فوق در ارزیابی و تعیین روند تغییرات خشکسالی و ترسالی، استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

روند؛ شیب سِن؛ ضرایب خودهمبستگی داخلی؛ من- کندال

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