تحلیل روند تغییرات زمانی و مکانی دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی شمال غرب کشور بر اساس دو شاخص خشکسالی SPI و RAI

آب و خاک

مقاله 1، دوره 30، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 46، تیر 1395، صفحه 655-671   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v30i2.39679

نویسندگان

مجید منتصری؛ بابک امیرعطایی^* ؛ کیوان خلیلی

دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

روند تغییرات بارندگی در یک منطقه می تواند نقش بسزایی در تحلیل تغییرات زمانی و مکانی خشکسالی داشته باشد. در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده های بارندگی 39 ایستگاه سینوپتیک واقع در شمال غرب کشور (2010-1986)، ابتدا سری های زمانی دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی بر اساس دو شاخص خشکسالی بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) و ناهنجاری بارندگی (RAI) تعیین گردیده، سپس به بررسی روند تغییرات دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی بر اساس سری مقادیر SPI و RAI با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتریک من- کندال با حذف اثر معنی داری تمامی ضرایب خود همبستگی با تأخیرهای مختلف پرداخته شده است. نتایج علاوه بر تأکید حساسیت روش من- کندال به ضرایب خود همبستگی معنی دار با تأخیرهای مختلف در تعیین روند دوره‏های خشکسالی و ترسالی، بیانگر وجود روند منفی (نزولی) در اکثر ایستگاه ها و وجود روند منفی معنی دار (در سطح اطمینان 95%) در ایستگاه های غرب منطقه مطالعاتی می باشد. همچنین شیب خط روند در اکثر ایستگاه های مطالعاتی منفی بوده و بیشترین شیب منفی بر اساس شاخص های مذکور در ایستگاه مراغه مشاهده گردید. در نهایت، نتایج نشان داد که می توان از هر دو شاخص خشکسالی SPI و RAI صرفاً برای تعیین روند تغییرات دوره های خشکسالی و ترسالی به دلیل همبستگی بالای دو شاخص خشکسالی فوق در ارزیابی و تعیین روند تغییرات خشکسالی و ترسالی، استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

روند؛ شیب سِن؛ ضرایب خودهمبستگی داخلی؛ من- کندال

مراجع

1- Adeloye A.J., and Montaseri M. 2002. Preliminary streamflow data analyses prior to water resources planning study. Hydrological Science, 47(5): 679-692.

2- Ahani H., Kherad M., Kousari M.R., Roosmalen L.V., Aryanfar R., and Hosseini S.M. 2012. Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112(3-4): 553-564.

3- Amirataee B., Montaseri M., and Yasi M. 2013. Comparison of inherent performance of seven drought indices in drought mitigation using a monte carlo simulation approach. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 43(1): 25-39. (in Persian)

4- AMS (American Meteorological Society). 2004. Statement on meteorological drought, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 85: 771-773.

5- Bars R.L. 1990. Hydrology: An Introduction to Hydrologic Science, Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., New York, USA.

6- Bhalme H.N., and Mooley D.A. 1980. Large-scale drought/floods and monsoon circulation, Monthly Weather Review, 108:1197–1211.

7- Bonaccorso B., Bordi I., Cancelliere A., Rossi G., and Sutera A. 2003. Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily, Water Resources Management, 17:273–296.

8- Bordi I., Fraedrich K., Gerstengarbe F.W., Werner P.C., and Sutera A. 2004. Potential predictability of dry and wet periods: Sicily and Elbe-Basin (Germany). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 77:125–138.

9- Bradley R.S., Dı´az H.F., Eischeid J.K., Jones P.D., Kelly P.M., and Goodess C.M. 1987. Precipitation fluctuations over northern hemisphere land areas since the mid-19th century, Science, 237:171–175.

10- Brunetti M., Brunetti M., Maugeri M., Nanni T., Navarra A., Maugeri M., Nanni T., and Navarra A. 2002. Droughts and extreme events in regional daily Italian precipitation series, International Journal of Climatology, 22: 509–621.

11- Daneshvar Vousoughi F., Dinpashoh Y., Aalami M.T., and Jhajharia D. 2013. Trend analysis of groundwater using non-parametric methods (case study: Ardabil plain), Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 27: 547–559.

12- Edwards D.C., and Mckee T.B. 1997. Characteristics of 20th Century Drought in the United State at Multiple Time Scales. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 634:1–30.

13- Gibbs W.J., and Maher J.V. 1967. Rainfall deciles as drought indicators, Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin No. 48, Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne.

14- Hamed K.H., and Rao A.R. 1998. A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, Journal of Hydrology, 204: 182–196.

15- Hayes M.J., Svoboda M.D., Wilhite D.A., and Vanyarkho O.V. 1999. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 80(3): 429-438.

16- Herschy W.R. 2002. The world’s maximum observed floods. Flow Measurement and Instrumentation, 13:231–235.

17- Hulme M. 1996. Recent climatic change in the world’s drylands, Geophysical Research Letters, 23:61–64.

18- Kampata J.M., Parida B.P., and Moalafhi D.B. 2008. Trend analysis of rainfall in the headstreams of the Zambezi River Basin in Zambia, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 33.

19- Kendall M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation Measures, Charles Griffin Inc, London.

20- Keyantash J., and Dracup J.A. 2004. An aggregate drought index: assessing drought severity based on fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and surface water storage. Water Resources Research, 40(9):W09304.

21- Keyantash, J., and Dracup, J.A. 2002. The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83: 1167– 1180.

22- Khaliq M.N., Ouarda T.B.M.J., and Gachon P. 2009. Identification of temporal trends in annual and seasonal low flows occurring in Canadian rivers: The effect of short- and long-term persistence, Journal of Hydrology, 369: 183–197.

23- Loucks D.P., Stedinger, J.R. and Haith, D.A. 1981. Water Resource systems planning and analysis. Prentice-Hall, Englewood cliffs, N.J.

24- Mann H.B. 1945. Non-parametric test against trend, Econometrica, 13: 245-259.

25- Marofi S., Soleymani S., Salarijazi M., and Marofi H. 2012. Watershed-wide trend analysis of temperature characteristics, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110:311–320.

26- McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., and Kleist J. 1993. The relation of drought frequency and duration to time scales, p. 179–184. In Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Boston.

27- McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., and Kleist J. 1995. Drought monitoring with multiple time scales, p. 233–236. Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Boston.

28- Mirza M.M.Q. 2002. Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications, Global Environmental Change, 12: 127–138.

29- Mishra A.K., Singh V.P., and Desai V.R. 2009. Drought characterization: a probabilistic approach, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(1): 41–55.

30- Moreira E.E., Paulo A.A., Pereira L.S., and Mexia J.T. 2006. Analysis of SPI drought class transitions using loglinear models, Journal of Hydrology, 331: 349–359.

31- New M., Todd M., Hulme M., and Jones P. 2001. Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century, International Journal of Climatology, 21: 1899–1922.

32- Nikbakht J., Tabari H. and Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. 2013. Streamflow drought severity analysis by percent of normal index (PNI) in northwest Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112(3-4): 565-573.

33- Nitzche M.H., Silva B.B., and Martinez A.S. 1985. Indicativo de ano Seco e Chuvoso. Sociedade Brasileira de Agrometeorologia, Londrina-PR, Brazil, 307-314.

34- Oladipo E.O. 1985. A comparative performance analysis of three meteorological drought indices. Journal of Climatology, 5: 655 – 664.

35- Palmer W.C. 1965. Meteorological drought, Research Paper No. 45, U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, DC.

36- Piccarreta M., Capolongo D., and Boenzi F. 2004. Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in Basilicata from 1923 to 2000 within a Southern Italy context, International Journal of Climatology, 24:907–922.

37- Piri H., Rahdari V., Maleki S. 2013. Study and compare performance of four meteorological drought index in the risk management droughts in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Irrigation & Water Engineering, 11:96-114. (in Persian)

38- Rebetez M. 1999. Twentieth century trends in droughts in southern Switzerland, Geophysical Research Letters, 26(6): 755–758.

39- Sen P.K. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63: 1379–1389.

40- Shafer B.A., and Dezman L.E. 1982. Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas, p. 164–175. In Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, Fort Collins, CO.

41- Silva Y., Takahashi K., and Chavez R. 2007. Dry and wet rainy seasons in the Mantaro River basin (central Peruvian Andes), Advances in Geosciences, 14: 1–4.

42- Smith J.B., Huq S., Lenhart S., Mata L.J., Nemesova I., and Toure S. 1996. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, p. 161-181. Interim results from the U. S. country studies program, U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC, USA.

43- Tabari H., Abghari H., and Hosseinzadeh Talaee P. 2012a. Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran, Hydrological Processes, 26:3351–3361.

44- Tabari H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee P., Ezani A., and Shifteh Some’e B. 2012b. Shift changes and monotonic trends in autocorrelated temperature series over Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109:95–108.

45- Theil H. 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Part 3. Proceedings of Koninalijke Nederlandse Akademie van Weinenschatpen A53:1397–1412.

46- Tsakiris G., and Vangelis H. 2005. Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration, European Water, 9(10):3–11.

47- Vicente-Serrano S.M., and Cuadrat-Prats J.M. 2007. Trends in drought intensity and variability in the middle Ebro valley (NE of the Iberian peninsula) during the second half of the twentieth century, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 88:247–258.

48- Vicente-Serrano S.M., Gonzalez-Hidalgo J.C., de Luis M., and Raventos J. 2004. Drought patterns in the Mediterranean area: the Valencia region (eastern Spain), Climate Research, 26: 5–15.

49- Von Storch H. 1995. Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques, Berlin, Springer, 11–26.

50- Watson R.T., Zinyowera M.C., and Moss R.H. 1997. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 517.

51- Wilhite D.A. 2000. Drought: A Global Assessment, Rutledge Press, London and New York, Volume I.

52- Wilhite D.A., and Glantz M.H. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions, Water International, 10: 111-120.

53- World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2003. Statement on the Status of Global Climate in 2003, WMO Publ. no. 966, WMO, Geneva.

54- Worrall F., Burt T.P., and Adamson J.K. 2006. Trends in drought frequency– the fate of doc export from British peatlands, Climatic Change, 76: 339–359.

55- Xu C.Y., and Singh V.P. 2004. Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate, Water Resource Management 18: 591–612.

56- Xu Z.X., Takeuchi K., and Ishidaira H. 2003. Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation, Journal of Hydrology, 279:144–150.

57- Yue S., and Hashino M. 2003. Temperature trends in Japan: 1900–1996, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 75: 15–27.

58- Yue S., and Wang C.Y. 2002. The influence of serial correlation on the Mann– Whitney test for detecting a shift in median, Advances in Water Resources, 25: 325–333.

59- Yue S., Pilon P., and Phinney B. 2003. Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Hydrological Science Journal 48(1):51–63.

60- Zhang Q., Singh V.P., Li J., and Chen X. 2011. Analysis of the periods of maximum consecutive wet days in China, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116 (D23106).

61- Zhang Q., Xu C.Y., and Zhang Z. 2009. Observed changes of drought/wetness episodes in the Pearl River basin, China, using the standardized precipitation index and aridity index, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 98: 89–99.

62- Zhang Q., Xu C.Y., Gemmer M., Chen Y.D., and Liu C.L. 2008. Changing properties of precipitation concentration in the Pearl River basin, China, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(3): 377-385.