تعیین مدل پیش بینی عملکرد کلزا براساس شاخص های هواشناسی کشاورزی و پارامترهای اقلیمی در شهرستان مشهد

آب و خاک

مقاله 3، دوره 30، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 48، مهر 1395، صفحه 1322-1333   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v30i4.45336

نویسندگان

سیدجواد رسولی^* ؛ محمدتقی ناصری پور یزدی؛ رضا قربانی

دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

پیش بینی صحیح عملکرد گیاه زراعی جهت مدیریت مناسب سیستم های اقتصادی و زراعی از اهمیت ویژه ای برخوردار است. این تحقیق، به منظور مدل‌سازی آماری و پیش‌بینی عملکرد کلزا در شهرستان مشهد، بر مبنای 5 شاخص هواشناسی کشاورزی و 12 پارامتر اقلیمی در طی دوره سال زراعی 79-78 الی 93-92 انجام شد. تاریخ کاشت بر اساس دمای مطلوب زمان کاشت بر اساس احتمال وقوع 75% به کمک فرمول ویبول تعیین شد. شروع و خاتمه مراحل فنولوژی کلزا (جوانه زدن، سبز شدن، یک برگی، رزت، ساقه رفتن، گل دادن، غلاف بندی و رسیدن) با درجه روز رشد (GDD) معینی برای هر مرحله محاسبه شد. با استفاده از روش همبستگی و تحلیل مدل های آماری، مدل های چند متغیره بین عملکرد سالانه کلزا و متغیرهای مستقل (پارامترهای اقلیمی و شاخص‌های هواشناسی کشاورزی) در طی سال های زراعی 79-78 الی 89-88 برای هر مرحله فنولوژیکی (8 مرحله) و کل فصل رشد کلزا تعیین شد. مدل برتر با توجه به مقادیر ضریب تعیین R2 و جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) انتخاب شد. آزمون مدل انتخابی با تخمین عملکرد کلزا برای سال های زراعی 90-89 الی 93-92 که در تعیین مدل شرکت نداشتند انجام شد. سپس ضریب تصحیح محاسبه و در نهایت مدل پیش بینی عملکرد انتخاب شد. این مدل بر اساس میانگین دمای حداکثر روزانه (Tmax) و مجموع بارش (R) در طی کل دوره رشد، عملکرد کلزا را پیش‌بینی کرد. این متغیرها 8/86 درصد تغییرات عملکرد در فصل رشد را توصیف کرده و در سطح احتمال 05/0 معنی‌دار بودند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شاخص‌های اقلیم کشاورزی؛ عملکرد کلزا؛ مدل‌سازی؛ مدل های چند متغیره؛ مشهد

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