تاثیر انتخاب ایستگاه در بهینه‌سازی پارامترهای مدل پالس مستطیلی بارتلت-لویس اصلاح شده (BLRPM) و عملکرد مدل هیدرولوژیکی HSPF

آب و خاک

مقاله 3، دوره 31، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 53، مرداد 1396، صفحه 754-771   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v31i3.62710

نویسندگان

اسماعیل دودانگه¹؛ کاکا شاهدی^{* 1}؛ کریم سلیمانی²

¹دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

²agriculture and natural resources of sari university

چکیده

در این پژوهش جهت مطالعه فرآیند بارش-رواناب در حوضه آبخیز طالقان از برنامه شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی فرترن (HSPF) استفاده شده است. علیرغم دقت بالای مدل HSPF، مشکلات موجود در خصوص اندازه گیری بارش در مقیاس‌های زمانی کوتاه مدت (مقیاس ساعتی و کمتر از آن) در حوضه های آبخیز، استفاده از مدل مذکور مخصوصا در شبیه‌سازی های هیدرولوژیکی طولانی مدت را با مشکل مواجه ساخته است. بدین منظور از مدل پالس مستطیلی بارتلت – لویس با پارامتر تصادفی (BLRPM) جهت گسسته سازی داده های بارش و تبدیل بارش‌های روزانه به بارش‌های ساعتی مورد نیاز مدل استفاده گردید. پارامترهای مدل با استفاده از داده های بارش ساعتی، 24 و 48 ساعته ثبت شده در دوره آماری (2006-2009) در ایستگاه‌های باران‌نگار داخل (جوستان و زیدشت) و مجاور حوضه (کلک چال) برآورد گردید. سپس با استفاده از مدل واسنجی شده به گسسته سازی داده‌های بارش روزانه ثبت شده در درون حوضه، در دوره آماری 1995-2005 پرداخته شد. داده‌های بارش ساعتی حاصل از فرایند گسسته‌سازی، جهت شبیه‌سازی دبی‌های روزانه توسط مدل HSPF به کار گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد استفاده از داده‌های بارش ساعتی ثبت شده در ایستگاه کلک چال جهت برآورد پارامترهای مدل BLRPM، موجب تولید بارش‌های با شدت زیاد در فرآیند گسسته‌سازی بارش و برآورد بیشتر دبی‌های اوج توسط مدل هیدرولوژیکی می‌گردد. حذف ایستگاه مذکور از فرایند بهینه سازی مدل BLRPM باعث بهبود عملکرد مدل HSPF با ضریب ناش – ساتکلیف 76/0، ضریب تبیین 79/0 و خطا (RMSE) 11/7 گردید. نتایج این مطالعه بیانگر حساسیت مدل HSPF به انتخاب ایستگاه و پارامتر شدت بارش می-باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

بارش ساعتی؛ دبی اوج؛ گسسته سازی بارش؛ نفوذ

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