مدل سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز آبیاری و کارایی مصرف آب در گندم‌زارهای استان خوزستان

آب و خاک

مقاله 9، دوره 31، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 54، مهر 1396، صفحه 1015-1030   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v31i4.58046

نویسندگان

رضا دیهیم فرد^{* 1}؛ حامد عینی نرگسه²؛ شبنم فرشادی¹

¹گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

²گروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم آینده، تأثیر آن بر مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی است که می‌تواند مدیریت منابع آب را با چالش‌های جدی روبرو سازد. در این مطالعه به‎منظور پیش‎بینی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رشد و نمو گندم در شش شهرستان استان خوزستان شامل اهواز، بهبهان، دزفول، ایذه، رامهرمز و امیدیه از مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3تحت سه سناریوی B1،A1Bو A2در دوره 65-2046 استفاده شد. برای ریزمقیاس کردن پارامترهای اقلیمی مولد آب و هوایی LARS-WG مورداستفاده قرار گرفت. پس از شبیه‎سازی اقلیم آینده و تولید پارامترهای موردنیاز، شبیه‎سازی رشد و نمو گندم با استفاده از مدل APSIM-Wheat انجام شد. نتایج ارزیابی مدل LARS-WG با استفاده از شاخص NRMSEحاکی از دقت بالای مدل در شبیه‎سازی تابش (از 63/0درصد تا 67/1 درصد)، دمای کمینه (از 63/0 درصد تا 98/1درصد) و بیشینه (از 63/0 درصد تا 05/1 درصد) بود درحالی‌که مقدار این شاخص برای بارندگی (از 42/11درصد تا 47/25 درصد) در مقایسه با دیگر متغیرها بالاتر بود. نتایج شبیه‎سازی نشان داد که در استان خوزستان عملکرد دانه گندم در شرایط تغییر اقلیم نسبت به دوره پایه به‎طور میانگین 16 درصد افزایش می‎یابد. با افزایش عملکرد دانه و همچنین کاهش تبخیر-تعرق (کاهش 5 درصدی در مقایسه با دوره پایه) در شرایط تغییر اقلیم، کارایی مصرف آب 23 درصد افزایش می‎یابد. به طور کلی نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که با توجه به افزایش دما (7 درصد)، افزایش غلظتCO2(از 334 پی‎پی‎ام به 526 پی‎پی‎ام در سال 2050)، کاهش طول فصل رشد (74/7 روز) و کاهش تبخیر-تعرق نیاز آبیاری گندم در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده 9 درصد کاهش می‎یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سناریوی اقلیمی؛ شبیه سازی؛ APSIM؛ مدل گردش عمومی

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