Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Iran's Geopolitical Power (Mediator Variable of Sustainable Development)

پژوهش ‎های جغرافیای سیاسی

Article 4, Volume 4, Issue 3 - Serial Number 15, June 2020, Pages 80-104   

Document Type: مقالات علمی -پژوهشی

DOI: 10.22067/pg.v4i3.80993

Authors

Mohammad Akhbari^{* 1}; Mohamad Basiri Sadr²

¹Associate Professor in Political Geography, Islamic Azad University of Tehran, Central branch, Tehran, Iran

²PhD Candidate in Political Geography, Islamic Azad University of Tehran, branch of Science and Research, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Currently greatest environmental threats are global warming and climate change. Climate change will lead to shortages of water and food, disease, unemployment, migration, poverty, tensions on resources and global instability. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of climate change in Iran and its impact on sustainable development and geopolitics. This research is a descriptive analytic study and used survey method. The questionnaire was designed based on the indicators of the effects of climate change, sustainable development, and geopolitics and was distributed among experts in meteorological, environmental and passive defense organizations. Sixty questionnaires were received. Measuring the reliability and validity using Software (pls) and proper patterning, the research hypothesis was proved. Findings showed taht there is a significant and reverse relation between the effects of climate change and sustainable development. Also, the reduction of sustainable development has a negative and significant effect on the geopolitical power of the Iran. Moreover, the reduction of sustainable development has a mediating role in the impact of climate change on geopolitics. In this study, Friedman's comparative test, prioritization of influential parameters of climate change in geopolitics was discussed. Amongst the factors, poverty and social anomalies, drought and immigration have the most negative impact on the country's geopolitics. The suggestions emphasized the necessity of implementing effective methods, watershed management and optimal exploitation of water resources, increasing productivity through new irrigation practices, changes in crop operations and cultivars, replacing crops that require less water and soil tillage, using clean energies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to be consistent with the effects of climate change.

Keywords

Climate Change; Global warming; Sustainable development; Geopolitics; Greenhouse Gases

References

1. Abbasi Semnani, A.R. (2013). Geopolitical Position of Iran in Regional and World Power Relationships. Sepehr Magazine, 22(1), 96-104. [In Persian].
2. Alijani, B.Q., & Rahimi, Y. (2005). Comparison of the Estimation of Tabriz Annual Temperature Changes with the Thermal Abnormality of the Earth Using Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network. Journal of Geography and Development, 3(621-38. [In Persian].
3. Amirnejad, H., & Asad Pour Kurdi, M. (2017). Effects of Climate Change on Iranian Wheat Production. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 9(3), 163-182. [In Persian].
4. Angel. J. (2008). Potential Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability. Illinois State Water Survey. Institute of Natural Resource Sustainability.
5.  Bahri, m., & Zahedi, E. (2016). Investigation of Climate Change Effects on Hydrological Regime of Surface Flow of Azkoush Watershed. Journal of Applied Geosciences Research, 16(42), 109-132. [In Persian].
6. Buzan, B., & Weaver, E., & Pop. D. (2013). A New Framework for Security Analysis, translated by Alireza Tayeb. Tehran, Publication of Strategic Studies Research Center p. 106198.
7. Ding, Y., & Hayes, M. J., & Widhalm, M. (2011). Measuring economic impacts of drought: A review and discussion. Disaster Prevention and Management, 20(4), 434–446.
8. Epstein, Paul R., & Ferber, D. (2011). Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health and what We Can Do about it. University of California Press.
9. Giddens, A. (2012). Climate Change Policies. Translation of Fred Zahra. Yahya Pour, Mohammad Sadiq Karimi, Sajjad. Tehran, Geographic Organization of the Armed Forces Publication p. 226.
10. Gleick, P.H. (2014). Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Wea. Climate Soc.331-340.
11. Hafez Nia, M.R. (2011). Principles and concepts of geopolitics. Mashhad, Papeli Publications p. 37-89. [In Persian].
12. Higgins, E. (2019). Climate Crisis Brings Historic Delay to Planting Season, Pressuring Farmers and Food Prices. Ecowatch. Retrieved, 30 May 2019.
13. Homme, D., & Murphy, A. (2013). Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change. GeoJournal, 78, 507–524.
14. http://www.otaghkhabar24.com                         .
15. https://ec.europa.e.
16. https://www.zistonline.com.                              
17. Hulme, M. (2016). Concept of Climate Change, in: The International Encyclopedia of Geography. The International Encyclopedia of Geography. Wiley-Blackwell, Association of American Geographers (AAG).
18. IDMC. (2014). (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) Norwegian Refugee Council. "Displacement due to natural hazard-induced disasters: Global estimates for 2009 and 2010". Internal-displacement.org. Archived from the original on 1 March 2014. Retrieved 23 February 2014.
19. IPCC Climate Change. (2001): The Scientific Basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.).
20. IPCC Climate Change. (2007). "Summary for Policymakers: C. Current knowledge about future impacts". Climate Change
21. IPCC, Climate Change. (2013). The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (AR5 WG1)" - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 17. Archived from the original on 22 December 2018. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century
22. Jiayi, Z., Maria Dellmuth, L., Adams, K.M., Neset, T.S. & Von Uexkull, N. (2020). The Geopolitics of Food Secutity: Barriers to the Sustainabie Development Goal of Zero Hunger. SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security. November 2020
23. Kaviani Rad, M. (2012). Environmental security from a geopolitical point of view. Journal of Applied Geosciences Research, 20(23), 85-106. [In Persian].
24. Kaviani Rad, M., & Karimipour, Y., & Fahmi, H., & Karami, S. (2017). Explaining the Consequences of Climate Change Change in the Central Iranian Watershed Area. Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 17(45), 73-92. [In Persian].
25. Khooshmanesh, B., & Pourhashemi, S.A., & Soltanieh, M., & Hermeida Bavand, D. (2015). Study of the Consequences of Climate Change from a Human Rights Perspective. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Journal, 17(4), 223-234. [In Persian].
26. Lee, J.R. (2011). Geopolitics of atmospheric change. Translation by Mohammad Hassan Nami. Tehran, Nahr-e-Sahehr Publications p. 19 and 25. [In Persian].
27. Mojtahedzadeh, P. (2002). Iranian Ideas and Geopolitical Transformations. Tehran, Neshrani Page 127. [In Persian].
28. Our Unstable Planet. (2009) A brief look at some recent climate change science, Friend of the Earth
29. Paskal Cleo, House Chatham ( June2007), How Climate Change is pushing the Bounndries of Security and Foreign Policy, Energy EEDP CC BP 07/01 Environment and Development Programme,  
30. Reiter, P. (2001). Climate Change and Mosquito-Borne Disease. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109(1), 141–161.
31. Saberi Louyeh, F., & Alijani, B., & Khaledi, S. (2019). Estimation of future climate change on the southern shore of the Caspian Sea using the regional climate model. Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards. 6 (1), 111-138. [In Persian].
32. Sarmad, Z., & et al. (2011). Research methods in behavioral sciences. Tehran, Agha Publications, p. 171.                        
33. Schneider, S.H., & et al. (2007). Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A. pp. 779–810.
34. Shaker, R.R. (2015). The spatial distribution of development in Europe and its underlying sustainability correlations. Applied Geography, 63, 35.
35. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change". (1994). "Climate change means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods - UNHCR (2008). Climate Change, Natural Disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR Perepective, Available at:www.unhcr.org/climate.
36. Tubiello, F.N., & Rosenzweig, C. (2008). Developing climate change impact metrics for agriculture. The Integrated Assessment Journal, 8(1), 165–184.
37. UN-Water (2013). UN Water Statistics" Archived 2013-05-17 at the Wayback Machine.
38. Wetzels, M., & Odekerken – Schorder, G., & Van Oppen, C. (2009). Using PLS Path Modeling for Assessing Hierarchical Constract Models: Guidelines and Empirical Illustration. MIS Quarterly, 33(1), 11.
39. Wheeler D. (2011). Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change: Implications for AdaptationAssistance. CGD Working Paper 240. Washington, D.C. Center for Global Development.
40. White, F., & Stallones, L., & Last, JM. (2013). Global Public Health: Ecological Foundations. Oxford University Press.
41. WOT (World Health Organization). (2018). "Climate change and health". World Health Organization. World Health Organization. Retrieved 27 February 2018.