Scheme of Recent Advances in the Field of Accounting and Economics: Application of Macro Accounting Theory in Economic Forecasting

Iranian Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance

دوره 4، شماره 1، بهار 2020، صفحه 79-97  

نوع مقاله: Accounting

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/ijaaf.2020.39260

نویسندگان

Vahid Bekhradi Nasab ¹؛ Ehsan Kamali ²؛ Khadije Ebrahimi Kahrizsangi³

¹Islamic Azad University, department of accounting,

²Islamic Azad University, Department of accounting

³Islamic Azad Univercity, Department of accounting

چکیده

Macro accounting introduces the cost stickiness behavior of all companies as aggregate cost stickiness. This theory states that since the periods of aggregate cost stickiness are more likely to be reserved for resources by companies facing with fall in sales (declining sales), periods of this sequence are associated with low unemployment. Every certain unemployment rate creates a certain increase in wages because wage costs represent General, administrative and sales costs. Based on this, the present study has applied macro accounting information to forecast the unemployment rate. The statistical population of this study includes all companies listed on the TSE. Macro accounting emphasizes economists' view of seasonal accounting. Therefore, data collection every quarter, and observations include 44 times (2008: Q1-2018: Q4). The method of model VAR. Also, to study the forecast's accuracy, the methods of the mean absolute value of error, mean of square error, and criterion of the average percentage of the absolute value of error have been used. Evidence suggests that aggregate cost stickiness forecast changes in the unemployment rate in the future. Reducing the cost stickiness by 1% reduces the unemployment rate by 0/34% in the next quarter. Another result of the research is the accuracy of the regression pattern's forecast in the short term

کلیدواژه‌ها

Macro Accounting؛ Cost Behavior؛ Aggregate Cost Stickiness؛ Unemployment Rate Forecast؛ Vector Auto Regression