ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر کشاورزی دشت همدان–بهار با تأکید بر بهره‌وری آب و امنیت‌ غذایی

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 5، دوره 34، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 49، پاییز 1399، صفحه 305-323  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2020.17793.0

نویسندگان

فاطمه معززی ¹؛ غلامرضا یاوری¹؛ سیدحبیب الله موسوی²؛ مهرداد باقری¹

¹، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

²دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران

چکیده

هدف مطالعه‌ی حاضر ارزیابی اقتصادی اثرات تغییرات اقلیم بر کشاورزی دشت همدان-بهار است. در این راستا ابتدا متغیرهای بارندگی و دما در افق 2070 تحت سناریوهای B1، A2، RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 پیش‌بینی شد و سپس با برآورد تابع واکنش عملکرد به روش ماکزیمم آنتروپی تعمیم­یافته (GME) و اندازه‌گیری تغییرات عملکرد ناشی از پارامترهای آب و هوایی و لحاظ آن در یک الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت منطقه، الگوی کشت محصولات غذائی اساسی، سود ناخالص کشاورزان، بهره‌وری فیزیکی و اقتصادی آب و امنیت‌ غذایی ارزیابی گردید. نتایج حاکی از افزایش دما، کاهش بارش، کاهش عرضه منابع آب و متعاقب آن کاهش عملکرد اکثر محصولات استراتژیک و افزایش عملکرد برخی محصولات سبزی و صیفی در تمامی سناریوها است. بعلاوه وقوع پیامدهای فوق دارای آثار منفی بر مقدار تولید کل محصولات، مقدار تولید محصولات استراتژیک و سود ناخالص کشاورزان منطقه است و در این راستا در بدبینانه‌ترین سناریو در افق 2070، زیانی به میزان 490 میلیاردریال به کشاورزان تحمیل خواهد کرد. افزایش بهره‌وری فیزیکی و اقتصادی آب در سناریوهای مختلف، نشان از ارزشمندشدن آب به دنبال کاهش کمیت آب در اثر تغییرات اقلیمی است. بنابراین وقوع تغییرات اقلیمی با متأثر‌کردن منابع آب، عملکرد محصولات، سطح زیرکشت، تولید مواد غذایی و در نهایت درآمد کشاورزان علاوه بر تحمیل زیان‌های اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی، ابعاد مختلف امنیت‌غذایی مانند در دسترس‌بودن موادغذایی، دسترسی، ثبات و استفاده از موادغذایی را تحت تأثیر قرار خواهد داد. بر همین اساس جهت حفظ و بهبود عملکرد و همین‌طور کاهش زیان‌های احتمالی بر درآمد و امنیت‌غذایی منطقه، اتخاذ راهبردهای مناسب و سازگار با تغییرات آب و هوایی از جمله استفاده از سامانه‌های نوین آبیاری، روش‌های کم‌آبیاری و اصلاح الگوی کشت با انتخاب محصولات با ارزش بالاتر بـرای افزایـش بهره‌وری آب، بهبـود مدیریـت منابـع آب و درآمد کشاورزان در سـطوح گیـاه، مزرعـه و منطقه ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

الگوی کشت؛ امنیت‌ غذایی؛ برنامهریزی ریاضی مثبت؛ بهره‌وری آب؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ دشت همدان-بهار

مراجع

1-       Abbasi F., Naseri A., Sohrab F., Baghani J., Abbasi N. And Akbari M. 2015. Improving water productivity. Agricultural Technical and Engineering Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Training and Extension Organization, Journal of 34/94. (In Persian with English abstract)

2-       Alcamo J., Dronin N., Endejan M., and Kirilenko A.P. 2007. A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Global Environmental Change 17(3-4): 429–444.

3-       Alibakhshi H., Dourandish A., and Sabuhi Sabuni M. 2020. Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Agricultural Market. Agricultural Economics 13(4): 55-86. (In Persian with English abstract) doi:10.22034/iaes.2020.113413.1719

4-       Amiri M. J., Karbasi Ab., Zoghi M., and Sadat M. 2015. Detection of climate changes by mann-kendall analysis and drought indexes (Case study: Agh Gol wetland). Journal of Environmental Studies 41(3): 545-561. (In Persian with English abstract)

5-       Anonymous. 2009. Annual report of groundwater resources of hamadan-bahar plain, studies company water resources hamdan. Shares Company Regional Water Hamadan province.

6-       Attavanich W., and McCarl A.B. 2011. The effect of climate change, co2 fertilization, and crop production technology on crop yields and its economic implications on market outcomes and welfare distribution. The Agricultural and Applied Economics Association’s 2011 AAEA & NAREA Joint Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, July 24-26.

7-       Balali H., Khalilian S., Viaggi D., Bartolini F., and Ahmadian M. 2011. Groundwater balance and conservation under different water pricing and agricultural policy scenarios: A case study of the Hamedan-Bahar plain. Ecological Economics 70: 863-872. (In Persian with English abstract)

8-       Barani N. and Karami A. 2019. The Impacts of Climate Change on Total Agronomical Production in Tenfold Agro-ecological Zones of Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 33(1): 95-107. (In Persian with English abstract)

9-       Batisani N., 2012. Climate variability, yield instability and global recession: the multistressor to food security in Botswana. Climate Development 4: 129–140.

10-   Cairns J.E., Crossa J., Zaidi P.H., Grudloyma P., Sanchez C., Araus J.L., Thaitad S., Makumbi D., Magorokosho C., Bänziger M., Menkir A., Hearne S., and Atlin G.N. 2013. Identification of drought, heat, and combined drought and heat tolerant donors in maize. Crop Science 53: 1335–1346.  http://dx.doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2012.09.0545.

11-   Cashman A. 2014. Water security and services in the Caribbean. Water 6:1187–1203.

12-   Chang C.C., Chen C.C., and McCarl B. 2012. Evaluating the economic impacts of crop yield change and sea level rise induced by climate change on Taiwan’s agricultural sector. Agricultural economics 43:206–214.

13-   Cohen I.S., Arriaga G.E., Valle M.A.V., Ibarra M.A.I., Villalobos A.M., and Hurtado P.B. 2014. Climate based risk assessment for maize producing areas in rainfed agriculture in Mexico. Journal Water Resource Protection 6:1228. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2014. 613112.

14-   Cortignani R., and Severini S. 2009. Modeling farm-level adoption of deficit irrigation using positive mathematical programming. Agricultural Water Management 96: 1785–91.

15-   Gohar A.A., Ward F.A. and Amer S.A. 2013. Economic performance of water storage capacity expansion for food security. Journal Hydrology 484: 16–25.

16-   Gohar A.A., Amer S.A., and Ward F.A. 2015. Irrigation infrastructure and water appropriation rules for food security. Journal Hydrology 520: 85–100.

17-   Gohar A.A., and Cashman A. 2016. A methodology to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, food security and economic welfare. Agricultural Systems 147: 51-64.

18-   Golan A., Judge G., and Miller D. 1996. Maximum entropy econometrics: Robust estimation with limited data. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

19-   Hammer G.L., Hansen J.W., Phillips J.G., Mjelde J.W., Hill H., Love A., and Potgieter A. 2001. Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture. Agricultural System 70: 515–553.

20-   He L., Tyner W.E., Doukkali R., and Siam G. 2006. Policy options to improve water allocation efficiency: analysis on Egypt Morocco. Water International 31(3): 320-337.

21-   Hosseini S.S., Nazari M. and Araghinejad S. 2013. Investigating the impacts of climate on agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 44(1): 1-16. (In Persian with English abstract)

22-   Howitt R.E. 1995. Positive mathematical-programming. American Journal Agricultural Economics 77: 329–342.

23-   Howitt R.E., Medellín-Azuara J., MacEwan D., and Lund J.R. 2012. Calibrating disaggregate economic models of agricultural production and water management. Environmental Modeling and Software 38: 244-258.

24-   Innes P.J., Tan D.K.Y., Van Ogtrop F., and Amthor J.S. 2015. Effects of high-temperature episodes on wheat yields in New South Wales, Australia. Agricultural Forest Meteorology 208: 95–107, doi: 10.1016/J. AGRFORMET.2015.03.018.

25-   IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp.

26-   IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and NY, USA, 1132 pp.

27-   Junk W. 2013. Current state of knowledge regarding South America wetlands and their future under global climate change. Aquatic Science 75(1): 113–131.

28-   Knox J., Hess T., Daccache A., and Wheeler T. 2012. Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environmental Research Letters 7: 034032.

29-   Lehmann N., Finger R., Klein T., Calanca P., and Walter A. 2013. Adapting crop management practices to climate change: modeling optimal solutions at the field scale. Agricultural System 117: 55-65.

30-   Lobell D.B., Banziger M., Magorokosho C. and Vivek B. 2011. Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nature Climate Change 1: 42–45.

31-   Lu Y., Hao Z., Xie C., Crossa J., Araus J. L., Gao S., Vivek B.S., Magorokosho C., Mugo S., Makumbi D., Taba S., Pan G., Li X., Rong T., Zhang S., and Xu Y. 2011. Large-scale screening for maize drought resistance using multiple selection criteria evaluated under water-stressed and well-watered environments. Field Crops Resource 124: 37–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2011.06.003.

32-   Madani K. 2014. Water management Iran: what is causing the looming crisis? Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 4(4): 315-328.

33-   Mainuddin M., Kirby M., and Qureshi E. 2007. Integrated hydrologic–economic modelling for analyzing water acquisition strategies in the Murray River Basin. Agricultural Water Management 93(3): 123-135.

34-   Makuvaro V., Walker S., Masere T. P. and Dimes J. 2018. Smallholder farmer perceived effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and adaptation strategies. Journal of Arid Environmental 152: 75–82.

35-   Massah Bavani A. R. and Morid S. 2006. Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of Zayandeh Rood River. Journal of Water and Soil Science 9(4): 17-28. (In Persian with English abstract)

36-   Mavromatis T. 2015. Crop–climate relationships of cereals in Greece and the impacts of recent climate trends. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 120: 417–432.

37-   Medellin-Azuara J., Howitt R.E., and Harou J.J. 2012. Predicting farmer responses to water pricing, rationing and subsidies assuming profit maximizing investment in irrigation technology. Agricultural Water Management 108:73–82.

38-   Mitchell T. D., Carter T. R., Jones P., Hulme M., and News M. 2004. A comprehensive set of climate scenarios for Europe and the globe. Working Paper 55. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

39-   Moridi A. 2017. State of Water Resources in Iran. International Journal of Hydrology 1(4):1- 5.

40-   Mosaedi A. and Kahe M. 2009. Investigating the effect of rainfall on wheat and barley crop yields in Golestan province. Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources 12(4):206-218. (In Persian with English abstract)

41-   Mosavi S. H., Soltani S. and Khalilian S. 2020. Coping with climate change in agriculture: Evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. Agricultural Water Management 241:106332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106332

42-   Movahedi S., Asakereh H., Sabziparvar Masoodian S.A., and Maryanji Z. 2013. Investigating the Changes of Seasonal rainfall pattern in Hamedan province. Geographical Research 28(2): 33-48. (In Persian with English abstract)

43-   Mushtaq S., Marasenia T.N., and Reardon-Smith K. 2013. Climate change and water security: estimating the greenhouse gas costs of achieving water security through investments in modern irrigation technology. Agricultural System 117: 78–89.

44-   Myers S., Zanobetti A., Kloog I., Huybers P., Leakey A., Bloom A., Carlisle E., Dietterich L., Fitzgerald G., Hasegawa T., Holbrook N., Nelson R., Ottman M., Raboy V., Sakai H., Sartor K., Schwartz J., Seneweera S., Tausz M. and Usui Y. 2014. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature 510:139–142. doi:10.1038/nature13179.

45-   Nakashima T. 2011. Positive mathematical programming for farm planning: review. Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly 45:251–258.

46-   Nikouei A. 2012. Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Modeling of Water Allocation and Use in Zayandeh-Rud River Basin with Emphasis on Evaluation of Environmental and Drought Policies. Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran, 271pp. (In Persian with English abstract)

47-   Palazzoli I., Maskey S., Uhlenbrook S., Nana E., and Bocchiola D. 2015. Impact of prospective climate change on water resources and crop yields in the Indrawati, Nepal. Agricultural System 133: 143–157.

48-   Paris Q., and Howitt R.E. 1998. An analysis of ill-posed production problems using maximum entropy. American journal of agricultural economics 80(1): 124-138.

49-   Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., and Fischer G. 2004. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14:53-67. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008.

50-   Paterson R.R.M., and Lima N. 2010. How will climate change affect mycotoxins in food?. Food Research International 43(7): 1902-1914.

51-   Potopová V., Zahradníček P., Štěpánek P., Türkott L., Farda A., and Soukup J. 2017. The impacts of key adverse weather events on the field-grown vegetable yield variability in the Czech Republic from 1961 to 2014. International Journal Climatology 37: 1648–1664.

52-   Preckel P.V., Harrington D., and Dubman R. 2002. Primal/dual positive math programming: illustrated through an evaluation of the impacts of market resistance to genetically modified grains. American Journal Agricultural Economics 84: 679–690.

53-   Ramirez-Villegas J., and Challinor A. 2012. Assessing relevant climate data for agricultural applications. Agricultural and Forest meteorology 161: 26–45.

54-   Sabouhi M., and Ahmadpour M. 2012. Estimation of Iran agricultural products demand functions using mathematical programming (Application of maximum entropy method). Journal of agricultural Economics 6(1): 71-91. (In Persian with English abstract)

55-   Sarker M.A.R., Khorshed A., and Gow J. 2012. Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: an analysis of time series data. Agricultural System 112: 11–16.

56-   Shahid S. 2011. Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in Northwest Bangladesh. Climate Change 105: 433–453.

57-   Soltani S., and Mosavi S.H. 2015. Evaluating the potential effects of climate changes on yield and value-added in the agricultural sector in Hamedan-Bahar plain. Journal of Agricultural Economics 9(1): 95-115. (In Persian with English abstract)

58-   Soltani S., and Mosavi S.H. 2016. Evaluating the potential effects of climate change on groundwater resources of Hamadan-Bahar plain. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 8(2): 95-112. (In Persian with English abstract)

59-   Sultana H., Ali N., Iqbal M.M., and Khan A. 2009. Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change. Journal of Climatic Change 94: 123–142.

60-   Thorlakson T., and Neufeldt H. 2012. Reducing subsistence farmers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evaluating the potential contributions of agroforestry in western Kenya. Agriculture and Food Security 1(1): 1-13.

61-   Varela-Ortega C., Blanco-Gutiérrez I., Swartz C.H., and Downing T.E. 2011. Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework. Global Environmental Change 21(2): 604–619

62-   Wang X. 2014. Advances in separating effects of climate variability and human activity on stream discharge: an overview. Advances in Water Resources 71: 209–218.

63-   Wangchuk S., and Siebert S.F. 2013. Agricultural change in Bumthang, Bhutan: market opportunities, government policies, and climate change. Society & Natural Resources 26(12): 1375–1389.

64-   Wheeler T. and von Braun J. 2013. Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341: 508–513.

65-   World Bank 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. World Bank, Washington, DC.

66-   Yadav S.S., Hunter D., Redden B., Nang M., Yadav D.K., and Habibi A.B. 2015. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Production, Food, and Nutritional Security. Crop Wild Relatives and Climate Change, Eds R. Redden, S.S. Yadav, N. Maxted et al. (2015) John Wiley & Sons, Inc. pp. 1–23.

67-   Zareabyaneh H., Bayatvarkeshi M., and Yazdani V. 2011. Trend analysis of annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation and drought in Hamedan province. Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering 1(3): 47-58. (In Persian with English abstract)