ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر کشاورزی دشت همدان–بهار با تأکید بر بهره‌وری آب و امنیت‌ غذایی

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 5، دوره 34، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 49، مهر 1399، صفحه 305-323   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2020.17793.0

نویسندگان

فاطمه معززی^{* 1}؛ غلامرضا یاوری¹؛ سید حبیب الله موسوی²؛ مهرداد باقری¹

¹گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

²گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف مطالعه‌ی حاضر ارزیابی اقتصادی اثرات تغییرات اقلیم بر کشاورزی دشت همدان-بهار است. در این راستا ابتدا متغیرهای بارندگی و دما در افق 2070 تحت سناریوهای B1، A2، RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 پیش‌بینی شد و سپس با برآورد تابع واکنش عملکرد به روش ماکزیمم آنتروپی تعمیم­یافته (GME) و اندازه‌گیری تغییرات عملکرد ناشی از پارامترهای آب و هوایی و لحاظ آن در یک الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت منطقه، الگوی کشت محصولات غذائی اساسی، سود ناخالص کشاورزان، بهره‌وری فیزیکی و اقتصادی آب و امنیت‌ غذایی ارزیابی گردید. نتایج حاکی از افزایش دما، کاهش بارش، کاهش عرضه منابع آب و متعاقب آن کاهش عملکرد اکثر محصولات استراتژیک و افزایش عملکرد برخی محصولات سبزی و صیفی در تمامی سناریوها است. بعلاوه وقوع پیامدهای فوق دارای آثار منفی بر مقدار تولید کل محصولات، مقدار تولید محصولات استراتژیک و سود ناخالص کشاورزان منطقه است و در این راستا در بدبینانه‌ترین سناریو در افق 2070، زیانی به میزان 490 میلیاردریال به کشاورزان تحمیل خواهد کرد. افزایش بهره‌وری فیزیکی و اقتصادی آب در سناریوهای مختلف، نشان از ارزشمندشدن آب به دنبال کاهش کمیت آب در اثر تغییرات اقلیمی است. بنابراین وقوع تغییرات اقلیمی با متأثر‌کردن منابع آب، عملکرد محصولات، سطح زیرکشت، تولید مواد غذایی و در نهایت درآمد کشاورزان علاوه بر تحمیل زیان‌های اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی، ابعاد مختلف امنیت‌غذایی مانند در دسترس‌بودن موادغذایی، دسترسی، ثبات و استفاده از موادغذایی را تحت تأثیر قرار خواهد داد. بر همین اساس جهت حفظ و بهبود عملکرد و همین‌طور کاهش زیان‌های احتمالی بر درآمد و امنیت‌غذایی منطقه، اتخاذ راهبردهای مناسب و سازگار با تغییرات آب و هوایی از جمله استفاده از سامانه‌های نوین آبیاری، روش‌های کم‌آبیاری و اصلاح الگوی کشت با انتخاب محصولات با ارزش بالاتر بـرای افزایـش بهره‌وری آب، بهبـود مدیریـت منابـع آب و درآمد کشاورزان در سـطوح گیـاه، مزرعـه و منطقه ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

الگوی کشت؛ امنیت‌ غذایی؛ برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت؛ بهره‌وری آب؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ دشت همدان-بهار

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