Investigating the Impact of Economic and Social Factors on Urban Water Demand in Yazd Province with Emphasis on Immigration Process

فصلنامه آب و توسعه پایدار

Article 5, Volume 7, Issue 3 - Serial Number 17, December 2020, Pages 37-46   

Document Type: Case Study

DOI: 10.22067/jwsd.v7i3.86531

Authors

mehran fatemi^{* 1}; mehdi akaberi²; saeed dehghan khavari²

¹Department of Geography, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran

²Department of Economics, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran

Abstract

During the last two decades, there have been numerous challenges in the field of urban water supply in Yazd province, such as lack of supply resources on the one hand and increased per capita consumption, as well as high migration rates on the other hand, which analyze the current and future status of supply and demand. Therefore, in this study, we first use linear expenditure models to account for factors such as household income, weather conditions, population and non-price controls such as building materials type and seasonal variation using generalized least squares method and integrated data. 3081 urban households in Yazd province were estimated per capita water consumption. Then, in three ideal scenarios, desirable and available, in both migration and non-migration, the urban water demand of Yazd province for the 25-year horizon (1400-1425) was predicted and the supply shortage was calculated compared to the current situation. The results showed that water supply in the five demand scenarios will face a deficit, which is the case in four critical and severe scenarios. According to the three patterns, this deficit will reach between 3 to 72 million cubic meters in the 25-year horizon in no migration mode and between 14 and 112 million cubic meters in migration mode. According to the results obtained, in order to overcome the main challenge of supply deficit, demand-side policies such as migration control, consumption pattern and quota reform, and supply-side policies such as water transfer should be adopted.

Keywords

Economic Development; Water Demand; Migration; Yazd Province; Integrated Data

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