Scenarios of the Independence of Iraqi Kurdistan and National Security of Iran

پژوهش نامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل

Article 8, Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 16, June 2020, Pages 191-214   

Document Type: Original Article

DOI: 10.22067/irlip.2021.21036.0

Authors

Abdolreza Alishahi^{* 1}; Younes Forouzan²; Hossein Masoudnia³; Ali Majidinejad⁴

¹Ph.D Student of Political Sciences, Allameh Tabataba'i University

²Ph.D of Communication Sciences, Allameh Tabataba'i University

³Associate professor of Political Science, Isfahan University

⁴M.A. of International Relations, Isfahan University

Abstract

From 1991 to today, the issue of Iraqi Kurdistan region independence is one of this region's primary goals. Massoud Barzani held the independence referendum, the head of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, to achieve this goal on 25 September 2017 and pushed Iraq to the brink of the danger of separatism and civil war. The countries of the region, such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey, and Syria, which have a minority of the Kurds, considered this a potential threat to their national security. This article seeks to answer this question: despite the holding of a referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan's independence, what scenarios can be expected for the future of this region? And what impact will it have on the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? By using the future research method and written and virtual resources, the authors devised three major scenarios on the future of the Kurdistan region. The findings suggest that the political and economic sanctions from countries of the Middle East such as Iran, Turkey, and Iraq, the death of Jalal Talabani, and the internal challenges of the Kurdish parties led to the referendum's suspension. And the future of the Kurdish region of Iraq, according to the variables of the Cantori and Spiegel model, not only does not lead to regional convergence, but a considerable divergence will take place in the Middle East and the threats posed by the level of coherence, the nature of the communications, the structure of the relationship and the level of power, and the interventionist actor to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Keywords

Kurdistan region; Referendum; Cantori and Spiegel; Iran national security

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