ارزیابی پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم و راهبردهای سازگاری با آن در دشت بوشکان استان بوشهر

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 5، دوره 35، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 51، بهار 1400، صفحه 63-78  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2021.17812.0

نویسندگان

حمیده دانشگر¹؛ مهرداد باقری ¹؛ مصطفی مردانی نجف آبادی²

¹گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

²گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران

چکیده

دشت بوشکان به عنوان یکی از قطب‌های کشاورزی استان بوشهر به شمار می‌رود. هدف مطالعه حاضر ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت محصولات کشاورزی دشت بوشکان می‌باشد. در این راستا مدل­های اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی بکار گرفته شد. متغیرهای بارندگی و دما در افق 2050 با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG تحت سناریو‌های انتشار گزارش چهارم هیات بین‌الدول تغییر اقلیم (A2 و A1B) شبیه‌سازی شد. برای بخش هیدرولوژیکی، مدلWEAP و ماژول اقتصادی-زراعی MABIA، بکار گرفته شد. در بخش اقتصادی با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت محصولات در مناطق مختلف دشت بوشکان مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که با تغییر اقلیم میزان آب در دسترس در سناریوهای A2 و A1B به میزان 56/18 و 44/14 کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین نتایج مدل MABIA حاکی از کاهش شدیدتر عملکرد محصولات گندم و هندوانه نسبت به سایر محصولات است. با اعمال این نتایج در مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت مشخص شد که سطح زیر کشت و سود کشاورزان در سناریو خوشبینانه به‌ترتیب به میزان 5/25 و 45/42 و در سناریو بدبینانه 6/38 و 26/55 درصد نسبت به مرجع کاهش خواهد یافت. اما نتایج ارزیابی راهبردهای بهبود راندمان آبیاری و روش کم‌آبیاری حکایت از اثرگذاری این راهبردها در کاهش اثرات منفی تغییر اقلیم دارد. راهبرد کم‌آبیاری نسبت به افزایش راندمان آبیاری به دلیل نداشتن هزینه‌های مرتبط با تغییر شیوه آبیاری سود بیشتری عاید کشاورزان می‌نماید. این راهبرد می‌تواند سود کشاورزان را تا 11 درصد در حالت خوشبینانه افزایش دهد. لذا استفاده از این دو راهبرد توسط کشاورزان توصیه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ دشت بوشکان؛ مدل ویپ

مراجع

1. Abbasnia M., Tavousi T., Khosravi M., and Taurus h. 2016. Uncertainty analysis of the future changes in maximum daily temperatures over Iran using GIS. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR) 25(97): 29-43. (In Persian with English abstract)
2. Abbasi F., Babaian A., Malbousi Sh., Asmari M., and Mokhtari L. 2012. Climate change assessment over Iran during future decades, using statistical downscaling of ECHO-G model. Geographical Research Quarterly 27(1): 205-230. (In Persian with English abstract)
3. Aldy J. E., and Pizer W.A. 2015. The competitiveness impacts of climate change mitigation policies. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 2(4): 565-595.
4. Arfini F., Donati M., and Paris Q. 2003. A national PMP model for policy evaluation in agriculture using micro data and administrative information. Contributed Paper Presented at the International Conference Agricultural Policy Reform and the WTO: Where Are We Heading. Capri, June.
5. Allen R.G., Pereira L.S., Raes D., and Smith M.1998. Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Fao, Rome, 300(9), D05109.
6. Bagheri Harouni M., and Marid S. 2013. Comparison of WEAP and MIKE BASIN models in water resources allocation (Case study: Talvar River). Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research 1: 151-168. (In Persian with English abstract)
7. Cortignani R., and Severini S. 2009. Modeling farm-level adoption of deficit irrigation using Positive Mathematical Programming. Agricultural Water Management 96(12): 1785-1791.
8. Cetinkaya C.P., and Gunacti M.C. 2018. Multi-criteria analysis of water allocation scenarios in a water scarce basin. Journal of Water resources management 32(8): 2867-2884.
9. Challinor A.J., Watson J., Lobell D.B., Howden S.M., Smith D.R., and Chhetri N. 2014. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nature Climate Change 4(4): 287-291.
10. Deylami A., Joolaei R., Rezaei A. and Keramatzadeh A. 2019. Investigating the effects of climate change on yield, gross profit and cropping pattern of Gorgan city. Journal of Agricultural Economics 13(2): 137-160.
11. Di Falco S., and Veronesi M. 2013. How can African agriculture adapt to climate change? A counterfactual analysis from Ethiopia. Land Economics 89(4): 743-766.
12. De Bruin K., Dellink R. B., Ruijs A., Bolwidt L., van Buuren A., Graveland J., and Tassone V.C. 2009. Adapting to climate change in the Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives. Climatic change 95(1-2): 23-45.
13. Esteve P., Varela-Ortega C., Blanco-Gutiérrez I., and Downing T.E. 2015. A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture. Journal of Ecological Economics 120: 49-58.
14. Forni L.G., Medellín-Azuara J., Tansey M., Young C., Purkey D., and Howitt R. 2016. Integrating complex economic and hydrologic planning models: An application for drought under climate change analysis. Water Resources and Economics 16: 15-27.
15. Ghandehari Gh,, Soltani J., and Hamidianpour M. 2015. Evaluation of optimal water allocation scenarios for Bar river of Neishabour using WEAP model under A2 climatic changes scenario. Journal of Water and Soil 29(5): 1158-1172. (In Persian with English abstract)
16. Haghighi P., Khalili K., and Behmanesh J. 2015. Comprehensive management of water resources with the approach of modifying the consumption pattern in Mashhad plain (with the help of WEAP software). Second National Conference on Conservation of Natural Resources and Environment. Urmia University, Iran. (In Persian with English abstract)
17. Hosseini S.S., Nazari M., and Araghinejad S. 2013. Investigating the impacts of climate on agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 44(1): 1-16. (In Persian with English abstract)
18. Hosseini S.A., and Bagheri A. 2013. System dynamic modeling of the water resources system in Mashhad plain to analysis strategies for sustainable development. Journal of Water and Wastewater 24(4): 39-28. (In Persian with English abstract)
19. Howitt R.E. 1995. Positive mathematical-programming. American Journal Agricultural Economics 77:329–342.
20. IPCC. 2014. Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
21. Jabloun M., and Sahli A. 2012. WEAP-MABIA tutorial: a collection of stand-alone chapters to aid in learning the WEAP-MABIA module. Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hannover, Germany.
22. Jalili KH., Moradi RM., and Bozorg Haddad O. 2016. Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Islamabad aquifer and land allocation optimization. Desert Ecosystem Engineering Journal 5(11): 119-133. (In Persian with English abstract)
23. Kalbali E., Ziaee S., Mardani Najafabadi M., and Zakerinia M. 2019. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Optimum Cropping Pattern: A Case Study of Gharehso Basin in Golestan Province. Iran-Water Resources Research 15(3): 258-271. (In Persian with English abstract)
24. Kiani Ghaleh Sard S., Shahraki J., Akbari A., and Sardar Shahraki A. 2019. Planning and studying the effects of climate change on agricultural development in Iran; Application of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) technique. Regional Planning Quarterly 9(34): 26-15. (In Persian with English abstract)
25. Khosravi M., Ismail Nejad M. and Nazaripour H. 2010. Climate change and its impact on water resources in the Middle East. Fourth International Congress of Geographers of the Islamic World. Zahedan.
26. Keramatzadeh A., Chizari A., and Sharzehei Gh. 2011. The role of water market in determining the economic value of agricultural water with a positive mathematical planning (PMP) approach (Case study: lands downstream of Shirin Darreh Bojnourd Dam). Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 2(42): 44-29. (In Persian with English abstract)
27. Kouzehgran S., and Mousavi Baigi M. 2015. Investigation of the trend of extreme climatic events in northeastern Iran. Journal of Water and Soil 29(3): 750-764. (In Persian with English abstract)
28. Mansouri A., Aminnejad B., and Ahamdi H. 2018. Investigation the effect of climate change on Inflow runoff into the Karun 4 dam based on IPCC's fourth and fifth report. Journal of Soil and Water Sciences 22(2): 345-359. (In Persian with English abstract)
29. Mahmoudi A., and Parhizkari A. 2016. Economic Analysis of the Climate Change Impacts on Products Yield, Cropping Pattern and Farmer's Gross Margin (Case Study: Qazvin Plain). Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research 1(2): 25-40. (in Persian with English abstract)
30. Mozafari M., Parhizkari A., Hosseini Khodadadi M., and Parhizkari R. 2015. Economic Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change Due to Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Agricultural Production and Available Water Resources (Case Study: Downstream Lands of Taleghan Dam). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 29(1): 68-85. (In Persian with English abstract)
31. Maraseni T.N., Mushtaq S., and Reardon-Smith K. 2012. Climate change, water security and the need for integrated policy development: the case of on-farm infrastructure investment in the Australian irrigation sector. Environmental Research Letters 7(3).
32. Medellín-Azuara J., Howitt R.E., MacEwan D.J., and Lund J.R. 2011. Economic impacts of climate-related changes to California agriculture. Climatic Change 109(1): 387-405.
33. Mohseni A., and Zibaei M. 2009. Analysing Consequences of Increasing Acreage of Colza in Namdan Plain of Fars Province: An Application of Positive Mathematical Programming.  Journal of Water and Soil Science 13(47): 773-784. (In Persian with English abstract)
34. Nazem Sadat M., Samani N., Bari A., and Molaei Nikoo M. 2006. The effective force of El nino-southern fluctuations phenomenon on climate change in Iran, using analysis of precipitation data. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology 4: 565-555.
35. Nikbakht Shahbazi A. 2018. Investigation of changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration of agricultural products in Khuzestan province under the influence of climate change. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research 25(6): 139-123. (In Persian with English abstract)
36. Nikmehr S., and Zibaei M. 2020. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrological and Economic Conditions of South Karkheh Sub-basin. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 34(1): 63-79. (In Persian with English abstract)
37. Osman Y., Al-Ansari N., Adbellatif M., Al-Jawad S., and Knutsson S. 2014. Expected future precipitation in central Iraq using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. Engineering 6(13): 948-959.
38. Paris Q., and Howitt R.E. 1998. An analysis of ill-posed production problems using Maximum Entropy. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80(1): 124-138
39. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., and Fischer G. 2004. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global environmental change 14(1): 53-67.
40. Pouran R., Raghfar H., Ghasemi A., and Bazazan F. 2017. Calculating the economic value of virtual water with the approach of maximizing irrigation water efficiency. Applied Economic Studies of Iran 21:189-212. (In Persian with English abstract)
41. Qureshi M.E., Whitten S.M., and Franklin B. 2013. Impacts of climate variability on the irrigation sector in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Water Resources and Economics 4: 52-68.
42. Qurghani F., Bustani F., and Soltani Gh. 2009. Investigating the effect of decreasing irrigation water and increasing water price on cultivation pattern using positive mathematical planning method: A case study of Eghlid city in Fars province. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 1(1): 74-57.
43. Röhm O., and Dabbert S. 2003. Integrating agri-environmental programs into regional production models: an extension of positive mathematical programming. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(1): 254-265.
44. Shahraki J., Sardar Shahraki A., and Hashemi Monfared A. 2019. Economic impact assessment of water resources management scenarios in Pishin catchment. Agricultural Economics Research 10(4): 59- 84. (In Persian with English abstract)
45. Sarzaeim P., Bozorg-Haddad O., Fallah-Mehdipour E., and Loáiciga H.A. 2017. Climate change outlook for water resources management in a semiarid river basin: the effect of the environmental water demand. Journal of Environmental Earth Sciences 76(14): 498.
46. Shokohi Z., and Forgiveness M. 2010. Investigating the effect of accepting laser leveling on water demand management in Marvdasht city. Journal of Agricultural Economics 5(2): 92-73. (In Persian with English abstract)
47. Saboohi M., Soltani Gh., and Zibaei M. 2007. Investigating the effect of changing the price of irrigation water on private and social benefits using a positive mathematical planning model. Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Industries (Special Economics and Agricultural Development) 21(1): 71-53. (In Persian with English abstract)
48. Sieber J., Swartzand C., and Huber-Lee A. 2005. User guide for WEAP21, Stockholm Environment Institute.
49. Semenov M.A., and Barrow E.M. 2002. LARS-WG A Stochastic Weather Generator for Use in Climate Impact Studies, User Manual, Version 3.0:28.
50. Semenov M.A., Brooks R.J., Barrow E.M., and Richardson C.W. 1998. “Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators in divers climates”, Climate Research.
51. Wheeler T., and Von Braun J. 2013. Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341(6145): 508-513.
52. Bushehr Regional Water Company of Bushehr. 2016. Report on the extension of the ban on the Bushkan study area. (In Persian with English abstract)