برآورد نیاز آبی و عملکرد گندم (Triticum aestivum L.) تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم (مطالعه موردی: دشت قزوین)

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 9، دوره 14، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 54، دی 1401، صفحه 751-768   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/agry.2021.68517.1015

نویسندگان

مژگان احمدی؛ هادی رمضانی اعتدالی^*

گروه علوم ومهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران.

چکیده

در عصر حاضر، تغییر اقلیم به‌عنوان یکی از عوامل مهم و تأثیرگذار در توسعه پایدار، کشاورزی و امنیت غذایی مطرح می‌باشد. گندم (Triticum aestivum L.) یکی از محصولات مهم و استراتژیک در جهان و ایران محسوب می‌شود. به همین منظور، در این پژوهش به تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد و نیاز آبی گندم آبی در دشت قزوین در دوره‌های آتی پرداخته شده است. برای ارزیابی، از مدل‌های گردش عمومی موجود در مدل LARS-WG (EC-Earth،GFDL-CM3 ،HadGEM2-ES ، MIROC5، MPI-ESM-MR) و سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در دوره پایه 2015- 1986و در دوره‌های آتی2040- 2021، 2060-2041، 2080- 2061 و 2100- 2081 استفاده شد. نیاز آبی و عملکرد گندم در دوره پایه و دوره‌های آتی با نرم‌افزار Aqua Crop محاسبه شد. در این پژوهش، نتایج حاصل از سناریوها با داده ایستگاه قزوین برای محصول گندم، توسط معیارهای آماری خطا شامل آماره­های ضریب تبیین (R²)، خطای جذر میانگین مربعات (RMSE)، حداکثر خطا (ME)، مقایسه شدند. نتایج شبیه‌سازی مدل LARS-WG در دوره پایه نشان داد که مدل در شبیه‌سازی دمای حداقل و حداکثر دقت بیشتری نسبت به بارش دارد. میانگین عملکرد گندم برای دوره پایه 67/7 (تن بر هکتار بر فصل) به‌دست آمد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان داد که میانگین عملکرد گندم در دوره‌های آتی افزایش می‌یابد که این میزان در دوره 2100-2081 و مدل HadGEM2-ES با سناریوی RCP8.5 بیشترین مقدار را دارد. میانگین نیاز آبی در دوره پایه 14/127 (میلی‌متر بر فصل) به‌دست آمد که این میزان در دوره‌های آتی کاهش می‌یابد. بنابراین، پیش‌بینی افزایش عملکرد در دشت قزوین بیانگر آن است که این منطقه از پتانسیل مطلوبی در کشت و توسعه این محصول برخوردار خواهد بود که علاوه‌بر مساعد بودن شرایط اقلیمی، بهبود مدیریت و نهاده‌های کشاورزی نیز می‌تواند باعث افزایش عملکرد این محصول در طی سال‌های آتی گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سناریوهای RCP؛ مدل‌های گردش عمومی اتمسفر؛ مدل LARS-WG؛ Aqua Crop

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