واکنش رشد و عملکرد رقم گندمِ میهن به اثرات تغییر اقلیم در دو منطقه کرمان و اردبیل

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 15، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 55، فروردین 1402، صفحه 1-16   

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/agry.2021.70099.1043

نویسندگان

روح اله مرادی^* ؛ مهدی نقی زاده

گروه تولیدات گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی بردسیر، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

چکیده

این مطالعه با هدف شبیه‏سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر دوره رشد، شاخص سطح برگ، عملکرد زیست‌توده و دانه گندم رقم میهن در دو استان کرمان و اردبیل اجرا شد. برای این منظور، مدل گردش عمومی HadGEM2-ES تحت دو سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در دو دوره زمانی 2055-2021 و 2090-2056 به‌کار برده شد. برای شبیه‏سازی پارامترهای اقلیمی و ایجاد فصل رشد احتمالی برای هر دوره از نرم‌افزار MarkSIMGCM و برای شبیه‏سازی رشد گندم از مدل CERES- Wheat در نرم‌افزار DSSAT استفاده گردید. نتایج ارزیابی مدل نشان داد که MarkSIMGCM دقت قابل قبولی برای پیش‌بینی پارامترهای اقلیمی و شبیه‏سازی فصل رشد احتمالی در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده داشت. طول دوره رشد گندم تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم در هر دو سناریو برای دوره‏های مورد سنجش و در هر دو منطقه مورد بررسی بین 51/0 تا 59/4 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. نتایج شبیه‏سازی نشان داد که تا سال 2055 عملکرد بر اساس سناریوی RCP4.5 در منطقه کرمان نسبت به شرایط کنونی 87/3 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. امّا، طبق سناریوی RCP8.5 در کرمان و هر دو سناریوی یاد شده در اردبیل، عملکرد گندم در آینده بین 99/0 تا 15/15 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. در دوره بلندمدت (2090) عملکرد گندم برای منطقه کرمان طبق هر دو سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 نسبت به زمان کنونی کاهشی ( به‌ترتیب 39/7- و 36- درصد) بوده و در اردبیل بر اساس سناریوی RCP4.5 افزایشی (36/20 درصد) و طبق سناریوی RCP8.5 کاهشی (89/2- درصد) خواهد بود. این نشان می‏دهد، نقش منفیِ افزایش  دما با گذشت زمان بیشتر از اثر مثبت افزایش 2CO خواهد بود. به‌طور کلی، نتایج تأیید نمود که رقم میهن در شرایط آینده اقلیمی اردبیل عملکرد قابل قبولی تولید خواهد نمود، ولی در کرمان باید راهکارهایی جهت سازگاری به این شرایط سنجیده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

دی اکسید کربن؛ ریزمقیاس نمایی؛ سناریو؛ گرمایش جهانی

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