عوامل مؤثر بر شدت انتشار آلاینده‌های تولید بخش کشاورزی

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 3، دوره 35، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 54، دی 1400، صفحه 347-333   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2021.68637.1013

نویسندگان

فضل الله غفاریان¹؛ زکریا فرج زاده^{* 2}

¹گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

²گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

منشأ اصلی انتشار آلاینده­ها در ایران حامل­های انرژی است، اما در مورد اکسیددی­نیتروژن و متان فرآیند تولید کشاورزی نقش مهمی دارد. در همین راستا، مطالعه حاضر با هدف تحلیل شدت انتشار آلاینده­های منتخب در بخش کشاورزی و ارزیابی عوامل تعیین­کننده آن صورت گرفت. برای این منظور ابتدا با استفاده از روش تحلیل تجزیه، شدت انتشار در بخش کشاورزی به اجزای آن­ تجزیه گردید. سپس با استفاده از تحلیل رگرسیون نقش عوامل تعیین­کننده در شدت انتشار ارزیابی شد. آلاینده­های منتخب در بخش کشاورزی شامل متان، اکسیددی­نیتروزن و دی­اکسیدکربن منتشرشده از فرآیند تولید و دوره مطالعه شامل 95-1352 می­باشد. یافته­ها نشان داد شدت انتشار متان و اکسیددی­نیتروژن در دوره مطالعه سالانه 9/3 و 6/2 درصد در حال کاهش بوده است. سطح تولید در زیربخش­های کشاورزی عامل مهمی در شدت انتشار است. به این ترتیب که انتظار می­رود یک درصد افزایش در سطح تولید زیربخش دام شدت انتشار متان را 9/0 درصد افزایش و شدت انتشار ­اکسیددی­نیتروژن را بیش از 3/3 درصد کاهش دهد. از سوی دیگر همین میزان افزایش در سطح تولید زیربخش زراعت و باغبانی شدت انتشار متان را 9/0 درصد کاهش و شدت انتشار ­اکسیددی­نیتروژن را بیش از 3/3 درصد افزایش خواهد داد. اثر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد ایران شامل نرخ شهرنشینی و درجه بازبودن اقتصاد بر شدت انتشار در بخش کشاورزی چندان حایز اهمیت ارزیابی نشد. به این ترتیب سیاست­های اتخاذشده برای کاهش شدت انتشار باید متمرکز بر متغیرهای بخش کشاورزی و بصورت مجزا در هر زیربخش دنبال شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

اکسیددی‌نیتروژن؛ بخش‌‌کشاورزی؛ شدت انتشار؛ متان

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