برآورد پتانسیل تجارت محصولات سرامیکی و مصنوعات شیشه‌ای در گروه کشورهای CIS (براساس مدل جاذبه)

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 2، دوره 27، شماره 20، اسفند 1399، صفحه 29-49   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.2021.18837.0

نویسندگان

امیر رضا سوری^{* 1}؛ مهدی محرمی²

¹دکتری اقتصاد و استادیار موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی

²دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد و پژوهشگر موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی

چکیده

چکیده
با توجه به روند رو به رشد تجارت ایران با کشورهای CIS در کالاهای محصولات سرامیکی و مصنوعات شیشه­ای و به‌منظور آگاهی سیاست‌گذار از مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر تجارت ایران با کشورهای موردبررسی، در این مقاله سعی شده است با استفاده از داده­های تلفیقی سال­های 2019-2009 و بر اساس مدل جاذبه، پتانسیل تجارت ایران با کشورهای گروه CIS به تفکیک گروه­های HS68 (محصولات سرامیک، شیشه و مصنوعات از شیشه)، HS69 (محصولات سرامیکی) و HS70 (شیشه و مصنوعات شیشه­ای) بررسی شود. تجزیه‌وتحلیل اطلاعات مرتبط با کشورهای طرف تجاری نشان داد که بزرگ‌ترین شریک تجاری ایران در گروه کالایی HS68 کشورهای قزاقستان، آذربایجان و روسیه و در گروه کالایی HS69 و HS70 کشورهای آذربایجان، ارمنستان، قزاقستان و روسیه می­باشند. نتایج برآورد نشان داد که قدرت توضیح­دهندگی مدل برای هر سه گروه کالایی با استفاده از روش­های حداقل مربعات معمولی، اثرات ثابت و اثرات تصادفی بالا بوده و متغیرهای اندازه و ابعاد اقتصادی تأثیر مثبت و معنی­دار و عدم توازن تجاری و مسافت تأثیر منفی و معنی­داری بر جریان تجاری کشورهای گروه CIS داشته­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مدل جاذبه؛ محصولات سرامیکی و مصنوعات شیشه‌ای؛ CIS؛ پتانسیل تجاری؛ تجارت بین‌الملل

سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله

chkide 20.pdf

مراجع

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