بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی کشورهای منتخب منا

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 6، دوره 27، شماره 20، اسفند 1399، صفحه 129-158   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.2021.67927.1003

نویسندگان

سمیه میقانی¹؛ مهدی خداپرست مشهدی^{* 2}؛ نرگس صالح نیا³

¹دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

²دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

³استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

چکیده
تغییرات آب‌وهوایی کره زمین به‌عنوان نتیجه روزافزون کشورها برای دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی بالاتر در دهه­های اخیر اثرات زیـادی را به دنبال داشـته کـه نمی­توان تأثیر آن بر بخش کشاورزی را نادیده گرفت. بخش کشاورزی به لحاظ نقشی که در تأمین مواد غذایی مردم دارد، یکی از اصلی­ترین بخش­های متأثر از تغییر اقلیم است که بـا تأثیرپـذیری از شـرایط اقلیمـی هـر منطقـه می­تواند بر اقتصاد آن منطقه تأثیر بگذارد. در این میان برخی از مناطق در معرض تغییرات آب‌وهوایی شدیدتری قرار دارند؛ ازجمله منطقه خاورمیانه و کشور ایران که از این مسئله مستثنی نیستند. در این تحقیق به بررسی تأثیر تغییرات آب‌وهوایی بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی کشورهای منطقه منا پرداخته می­شود. بدین منظور از داده‌های دما و بارش و ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی 11 کشور منطقه منا برای دوره زمانی 2001-2016 و از مدل هم­جمعی با رهیافت حداقل مربعات معمولی اصلاح شده(FMOLS) و حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا(DOLS)  استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که یک رابطه بلند­مدت هم­جمعی میان تغییر اقلیم و ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی وجود دارد. در طول دوره موردبررسی متغیر دما اثر منفی و معنادار و متغیر بارش اثر مثبت و معنادار داشته است؛ به‌نحوی‌که با هر یک درصد افزایش دما و بارش در بلندمدت ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی در مدل (FMOLS) به­ترتیب به­میزان 28/0-، 03/0 درصد و در مدل (DOLS) به­میزان 09/0-، 02/0 درصد تغییر می­یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم؛ ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی؛ پانل هم جمعی

سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله

chkide 20.pdf

مراجع

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