مدل‌سازی حساسیت خطر وقوع سیل در حوضه آبریز الندچای بر پایه یک رویکرد طبقه‌بندی ترکیبی نوین (FURIA-GA-LogitBoost)

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 1، دوره 12، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 45، اردیبهشت 1402، صفحه 1-24   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2022.74170.1141

نویسندگان

توحید رحیم پور^{* 1}؛ محمدحسین رضائی مقدم²؛ سید اسدالله حجازی³؛ خلیل ولیزاده کامران⁴

¹– دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

²استاد گروه ژئوموفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

³دانشیار گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

⁴استاد گروه سنجش‌ازدور و GIS، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

با شروع فصل بهار سیلاب‌ها به عنوان مهم‌ترین مخاطره ژئومورفیک در سطح کشور مطرح می‌شوند که خسارت‌های جانی و مالی فراوانی را به بار می‌آورند. حوضه آبریز الندچای واقع در شهرستان خوی و شمال غرب کشور نیز به دلیل موقعیت خاص جغرافیایی جزو حوضه‌های با پتانسیل بالای خطر وقوع سیل شناخته می‌شود. هدف از پژوهش حاضر مدل‌سازی تغییرات فضایی حساسیت خطر وقوع سیل در این حوضه با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی نوین FURIA-GA-LogitBoost می‌باشد. به همین منظور از 13 پارامتر مؤثر در وقوع سیل شامل لیتولوژی، گروه‌های هیدرولوژیکی خاک، شاخص پوشش گیاهی، کاربری اراضی، ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، فاصله از آبراهه، تراکم آبراهه، بارش، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافیک، شاخص قدرت آبراهه و شاخص حمل رسوب استفاده شده است. جهت اجرای مدل تحقیق از نرم‌افزار WEKA استفاده شده و نقشه نهایی حساسیت خطر وقوع سیل تهیه گردید. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد مناطق پایین‌دست حوضه حساسیت بالایی را از نظر خطر وقوع سیل دارند. این مناطق محل تمرکز مهم‌ترین اجتماعات انسانی حوضه آبریز (شهر خوی) و زمین‌های کشاورزی و باغات است که سیلاب به‌عنوان یک مخاطره ژئومورفیک، تهدید جدی برای این مناطق محسوب می‌شود. بررسی میزان دقت نقشه‌ نهایی با استفاده از منحنی ROC و سطح زیر منحنی (AUC) نشان داد که مدل به کار رفته در تحقیق به ترتیب با ضرایب 861/0 و 895/0 از نظر داده‌های آموزشی و اعتبارسنجی از عملکرد خوبی در تهیه نقشه حساسیت خطر وقوع سیل برخوردار بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سیلاب؛ FURIA؛ الگوریتم ژنتیک؛ مدل LogitBoost؛ حوضه آبریز الندچای

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