بررسی اثر سیاست های تعدیل اقتصادی بر نوسانات رشد اقتصادی ایران

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 1، دوره 28، بهار و تابستان 1400 - شماره پیاپی 21، شهریور 1400، صفحه 1-29   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/mfe.2022.74515.1155

نویسندگان

سید رضا پورنقی¹؛ احمد جعفری صمیمی²؛ فرید عسکری^{* 3}؛ فرزانه خلیلی³

¹دانشجو دکتری اقتصاد پولی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد ابهر، زنجان، ایران

²استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران

³استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد ابهر، زنجان، ایران

چکیده

چکیده
تحولات و نوسانات رشد اقتصادی سبب بروز تغییرات مهمی در اقتصاد و متغیرهای آن خواهد شد. به همین علت بررسی عامل ایجاد نوسانات و بی­ثباتی در رشد اقتصادی می­تواند به رفع یا بهبود اثرگذاری آن‌ها منجر گردد. در این مطالعه با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری به بررسی ارتباط بین سیاست­های تعدیل اقتصادی بر نوسانات و بی­ثباتی رشد اقتصادی طی دوره 1982 تا 2019 پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور نوسانات سالیانه رشد اقتصادی با استفاده از الگوی نوسانات شرطی نمایی محاسبه و اثرات سه سیاست خصوصی­سازی، آزادسازی تجاری و آزادسازی مالی بر آن سنجیده شد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد متغیرهای آزادسازی مالی دارای کمترین (6/0 درصد) و متغیر آزادسازی تجاری دارای بیشترین (21 درصد) سهم بر تغییرات بی­ثباتی رشد اقتصادی هستند. همچنین بررسی میزان واکنش بی­ثباتی رشد نسبت به سیاست­های تعدیل اقتصادی نشان می­دهد که این سیاست­ها با یکدیگر سازگار نیست؛ به‌طوری‌که سیاست­ آزادسازی تجاری موجب کاهش بی­ثباتی و سیاست خصوصی­سازی موجب افزایش بی­ثباتی رشد اقتصادی در کوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

نوسان؛ خصوصی‌سازی؛ آزادسازی مالی؛ آزادسازی تجاری؛ رشد اقتصادی

سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله

Extended abstract 21.pdf

مراجع

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