اثر ریسک اقتصادی، مالی و سیاسی بر ریسک و بازده بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 5، دوره 28، پاییز و زمستان 1400 - شماره پیاپی 22، اسفند 1400، صفحه 127-152   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/mfe.2022.74053.1144

نویسندگان

هادی کشاورز^* ؛ محمد رضایی

استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دالنشکده کسب و کار و اقتصاد، دانشگاه خلیج فارس، بوشهر، ایران.

چکیده

چکیده
مروری بر مطالعات انجام شده در زمینه تأثیر ریسک بر بازار سهام نشان می‌دهد که مطالعه جامعی برای بررسی تأثیر ریسک سیاسی، مالی و اقتصادی بر بورس اوراق بهادار تهران انجام نشده است؛ بنابراین، این پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ به این سؤال است که آیا ریسک‌های سیاسی، مالی و اقتصادی بر ریسک و بازده سهام تأثیر می‌گذارند؟ کدام ریسک بیشترین تأثیر را بر ریسک و بازده بازار سهام دارد؟ بدین منظور از شاخص بی‌ثباتی مالی، سیاسی و اقتصادی در چارچوب روش اقتصادسنجی خود رگرسیون برداری ساختاری برای دوره 1398-1387 به‌صورت ماهانه استفاده‌شده است. داده‌های مربوط به ریسک از مجموعه داده‌ ICRG که توسط شرکت PRS منتشر می‌شود، گرفته ‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از توابع واکنش آنی نشان می‌دهد با افزایش شاخص ریسک مالی (معادل کاهش ریسک مالی) بازدهی سهام افزایش یافته است. اثر شاخص ریسک اقتصادی بر بازده سهام منفی است؛ اما ریسک بازار سهام تحت تأثیر ریسک مالی؛ سیاسی و اقتصادی نیست و تنها اثر بازده بر ریسک بازار معنی‌دار است. نتایج حاصل از تجزیه واریانس نیز نشان می‌دهد به‌طورکلی از بین سه شاخص ریسک مالی، سیاسی و اقتصادی، شاخص ریسک اقتصادی بیشترین توضیح دهندگی را در بازده و ریسک بازدهی بازار سهام داشته است. می‌توان ادعا نمود که بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بیشتر تحت تأثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی است؛ بنابراین سیاست‌گذاری در حوزه­های کلان جهت کاهش ریسک اقتصادی لازم به نظر می‌رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ریسک اقتصادی؛ ریسک مالی؛ ریسک سیاسی؛ بازار سهام

سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله

Extended abstract 22.pdf

مراجع

 

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