تحلیل واکنش رشد اقتصادی افغانستان از رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب همسایۀ ‌آن

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 5، دوره 28، 1بهار و تابستان 21، شهریور 1400، صفحه 103-138   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.2022.18776.0

نویسندگان

نادر مهرگان¹؛ محمدیوسف خاشعی^{* 2}

¹استاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

²کارشناس ارشد، علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی اهل‌بیت (ع)

چکیده

چکیده
هدف این مطالعه، تحلیل واکنش رشد اقتصادی افغانستان از رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب همسایۀ آن (ایران، پاکستان، تاجیکستان و ترکمنستان) است. در این تحقیق از داده‌های سالانۀ تولید ناخالص داخلی (۲۰۱۷ – ۲۰۰۲) و الگوی خود رگرسیون برداری (VAR) استفاده‌شده است. نتایج این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که یک رابطۀ مثبت و بلندمدت بین رشد اقتصادی افغانستان و کشورهای ایران و پاکستان وجود دارد. نتایج در کوتاه‌مدت نیز نشان می‌دهد که یک رابطۀ علّی یک‌طرفه از سوی تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران به سمت تولید ناخالص داخلی افغانستان است؛ اما هیچ‌گونه رابطۀ علّی دوطرفه بین رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی افغانستان و ایران وجود ندارد. هم‌چنین بین تولید ناخالص داخلی افغانستان و پاکستان یک رابطۀ علّی دوطرفه وجود دارد. درحالی‌که بین تولید ناخالص داخلی افغانستان، تاجیکستان و ترکمنستان، هیچ رابطۀ علّی وجود ندارد. افزون بر آن، نتایج مذکور در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد، کشورهای ایران، پاکستان و ترکمنستان سهم عمده‌ای در توضیح نوسانات تولید ناخالص داخلی افغانستان دارد و در این میان بیشترین سهم مربوط به ایران است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

رشد منطقه‌ای؛ خود رگرسیون‌برداری (VAR)؛ سرریز اقتصادی؛ اقتصاد افغانستان

سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله

chkide 21.pdf

مراجع

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