بررسی عوامل اقتصادی و رفتاری اثرگذار بر رشد شاخص قیمت سهام در بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 2، دوره 29، بهار و تابستان 1401 - شماره پیاپی 23، مهر 1401، صفحه 47-71   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/mfe.2022.75811.1179

نویسندگان

حجت ایزدخواستی^{* 1}؛ رضا محسنی¹؛ میثم سلطانی²

¹استادیار اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

²کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

چکیده
امروزه بازارهای مالی یکی از اساسی­ترین بازارهای هر کشور است و شرایط این بازارها به‌شدت بر بخش­های واقعی اقتصاد اثرگذار است. به­طورکلی عوامل مؤثر بر بازار سهام به دو دسته عوامل بیرونی (عوامل اقتصادی و عوامل سیاسی) و عوامل درونی (فعالیت­ها و تصمیمات شرکت­ها) تقسیم‌بندی می­شوند. در این پژوهش، عوامل اقتصادی و رفتاری اثرگذار بر تلاطم‌های شاخص قیمت سهام در بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در دوره زمانی بهار 1383 تا زمستان 1399 با استفاده از الگوی خود توضیح با وقفه­های گسترده بررسی شده است. نتایج برآورد بلندمدت بیانگر این است که رشد قیمت نفت اوپک، رشد نرخ ارز و رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی اثر مثبت و شاخص احساسات سرمایه­گذاران (شاخص آرمز) و رشد قیمت مسکن اثر منفی و معناداری با رشد شاخص قیمت سهام بورس اوراق بهادار تهران دارند. همچنین، حاصل‌ضرب شاخص احساسات سرمایه­گذاران و متغیر مجازی خروج آمریکا از برجام و شیوع ویروس کرونا اثر مثبت بر رشد شاخص قیمت سهام بورس اوراق بهادار تهران داشته­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عوامل اقتصادی؛ عوامل رفتاری؛ شاخص آرمز؛ شاخص قیمت سهام بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

مراجع

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