Identifying the Key Derivers Affecting the Unified Urban Management using Future Study and Senario-Based Planning (Case Study: Qom City, Iran)

جغرافیا و توسعه فضای شهری

Volume 11, Issue 3, December 2024, Pages 107-130   

Document Type: Scientific-Research

DOI: 10.22067/jgusd.2022.77397.1250

Authors

Sayed Ali Hosseini¹; Hossein Yaghfoori²; Zohreh Hadyani^{* 3}

¹Ph.D. Student of Geography and Urban Planning

²Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning

³Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning

Abstract

Extended Abstract
1. Introduction
“Unity of management” as a principle that is considered opposed to “functional fragmentation” necessitates that the municipalities of each city be responsible for all or most of the significant tasks of cities’ administration and development. Some studies have so far proved the fact that when cities do not follow a unified management and urban responsibilities are delivered to different agencies, the quality of offered services is not satisfying. Moreover, the municipalities would not possess distinct civil identity and would be more perceived as government agencies. Accordingly, currently the main issue for a successful urban governance is the focus on “unified urban management” that can help organizations to achieve “sustainable urban development”. The issue was the subject matter of many studies over the past decades and need to be investigated again for the new context.
For managing metropolises like Qom, a fragmented management and sectoral policy-making will not be effective. If each component of the urban management system makes decisions for the city based on its own authority and adopts a narrow, sectoral perspective, the resulting inconsistencies at the macro level will create many problems. We can say that some of the current challenges of cities are due to this fragmentation and lack of unified management. Taking account the issues, this study tried to identify the main drivers that influence the generation and development of unified urban management in the city of Qom, and to see the most effective and desirable scenarios in this regard.
2. Method
The applied study was conducted using analytical-exploratory method. Library resources and field studies were used for collecting the required data. Moreover, structural analysis methods, scenario drawing and Delphi technique were applied. The tools utilized were Scenario Wizard and MIC MAC.
 
3. Results
The results of Scenario Wizard software showed that there exists 6 scenarios of strong compatibility and 619 scenarios of weak compatibility for generating and developing a unified urban management in Qom. Considering the similarity between the scenarios, we can categorize them into three groups. Each group embraces several scenarios with similar characteristics but are different only in one or more states among the ten primary factors. These groups are as follows: A) Desirable scenarios (Scenarios 1 and 2); B) Relatively desirable scenarios (Scenarios 3, 4, and 5); C) Crisis scenarios (Scenario 6). From among the six strong and probable scenarios for generating and developing a unified urban management in Qom, two scenarios hold a desirable status and three scenarios recorded a relatively desirable status. That is, they have desirable conditions for the development of unified urban management in this city in the future. Moreover, the condition of one scenario is critical.
4. Discussion and Conclusion
Primarily this study tried to identify the main drivers that exerted an influence on generating a unified urban management in Qom, Iran. For this purpose, a future-oriented approach and scenario-based planning were applied. The results of structural analysis model showed 10 indicators were the most significant factors that may impact the development of unified urban management in Qom. Among these indicators, seven belonged to the managerial, institutional, and legal variable category, two belonged to the socio-cultural variable group, and one belonged to the environmental and physical variable group. The results revealed that the most significant and critical variable is “managerial- institutional and legal variable”. Moreover, the results showed that there exists 6 scenarios of strong and probable compatibility and 619 scenarios of weak compatibility for creating a unified urban management in Qom. Taking account the similairties between the senaraios, they were categorized into three groups and each of the groups entails some scenarios that hold nearly identical characteristics but differ only in one or more features of the 10 main factors. Group 1 entails scenarios that have desirable conditions with competitiveness and program-oriented approaches. The first and second scenarios are in this group, which have the best and most desirable conditions for generating and developing a unified urban management in Qom. There is not any crisis scenario in this group, and the differentiating factor between them lies in the varying degrees of desirable and static scenarios. This group has the highest number of desirable scenarios. The scenarios of Group 2 have the features of maintaining the existing status and trends. This group entails the third, fourth, and fifth scenarios. Just like the scenarios of Group 1, there is not any crisis scenarios in this group, as the emphasis is more on relatively desirable states. Group 3 entails critical and undesirable conditions for generating unified urban management in Qom. This group embraces Scenario 6. About 90% of the scenarios of this group present undesirable and critical conditions for generating a unified urban management in Qom.

Keywords

Keywords: Key Derivers; Unified Urban Management; Futures Studies; Future-based Planning; Qom City

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