تعیین‌کننده‌های صادرات و تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 6، دوره 36، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 57، بهمن 1401، صفحه 413-429   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2023.77925.1148

نویسندگان

سپیده ذوالانواری شیرازی¹؛ زکریا فرج زاده^{* 2}

¹بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

²دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

ایران با هدف کاهش وابستگی به درآمدهای حاصل از صادرات نفت و گاز، قصد دارد صادرات غیرنفتی را گسترش دهد. در همین راستا، این پژوهش سعی دارد عوامل تعیین­کننده صادرات و تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران را بررسی کند. برای صادرات از مدل جاذبه و داده­های ترکیبی سال­های 1997تا 2017 استفاده شد. هم­چنین تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش­های آن با استفاده از داده­های دوره 1978 تا 2018 مطالعه شد. نتایج مدل جاذبه نشان داد متغیر فاصله بر میزان صادرات اثر منفی دارد. در حالی که اثر متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران و کشورهای واردکننده مطابق انتظار، مثبت به­دست آمد. یافته­ها نشان داد یک درصد افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه ایران موجب افزایش صادرات محصولات کشاورزی به میزان 42/3 درصد خواهد شد. اما ضریب به­دست آمده برای تولید ناخالص کشورهای واردکننده از اهمیت آماری پایینی برخوردار بود. هم­چنین مشخص گردید افزایش جمعیت کشورهای واردکننده موجب افزایش تقاضا برای صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران خواهد شد. درجه بازبودن اقتصاد اثر مثبت و معنی­داری بر صادرات نشان داد. ضریب متغیر نرخ ارز واقعی در حدود 9/0 به­دست آمد و مشخص گردید تغییرات صادرات با تغییرات نرخ ارز هم جهت است. تحریم­های شدید بر صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران اثر منفی نشان داد اما تحریم­های کم، فاقد اثر معنی­دار ارزیابی شد. هم­چنین نتایج نشان داد متغیر بحران جهانی اقتصاد می­تواند موجب کاهش صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران شود. در تصریح تراز تجاری مشخص گردید ارزش­افزوده بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش­های آن بر بهبود تراز تجاری اثر مثبت دارد. اما اثر نرخ ارز واقعی بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش­های زراعت و دام و طیور منفی ارزیابی شد که نشان­دهنده تأیید تئوری منحنی J است. اما برای زیربخش باغبانی مورد تأیید قرار نگرفت. نوسانات نرخ ارز با استفاده از دو متغیر تغییرات مثبت و منفی این متغیر، و هم­چنین اثر ARCH حاصل از تخمین مدل خودتوضیح میانگین متحرک در مدل لحاظ شد. اثر این دو متغیر ضمن تفاوت در اندازه ضریب، الزاماً هم­جهت نبود. اثر متغیر درجه باز­بودن اقتصاد بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش باغبانی مثبت ارزیابی شد. به این معنی که تولید آنها مبتنی بر مزیت نسبی است. در حالی­که اثر این متغیر بر تراز تجاری زیربخش­های زراعت و دام­وطیور منفی به­دست آمد. هم­چنین پیامد تحریم­ها بر تراز تجاری منفی ارزیابی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

بخش کشاورزی؛ تراز تجاری؛ صادرات؛ مدل جاذبه

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