ارزیابی اثر فضایی سهم انواع کاربری های زمین در وقوع تصادفات (مطالعه موردی: شهر شیراز)

مهندسی عمران فردوسی

مقاله 1، دوره 36، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 43، مهر 1402، صفحه 1-16   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jfcei.2023.80945.1214

نویسندگان

محمد صدیق باور^{* 1}؛ علی نادران²؛ محمود صفارزاده³

¹باشگاه پژوهشگران جوان و نخبگان، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز.

²برنامه ریزی و مهندسی حمل و نقل، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران.

³برنامه ریزی و مهندسی حمل و نقل، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

چکیده

نوع کاربری زمین در هر ناحیه نرافیکی مهمترین عامل تعیین کننده تعداد وسایل نقلیه، ویژگی‌های هندسی و ترافیکی در آن ناحیه می‌باشد. کاهش تراکم و اختلاط انواع وسایل نقلیه و در محیط‌های شهری به منظور کاهش تصادفات یکی از مهمترین دغدغه‌های مهندسین حمل و نقل می‌باشد. در این مطالعه به منظور بررسی تاثیر سهم انواع کاربری ها در هریک از نواحی ترافیکی شهر شیراز بر احتمال وقوع تصادف، از روش دو مرحله‌ای شامل شناسایی انواع کاربری‌های تاثیرگذار در بروز تصادف و همچنین اثرات فضایی بین متغیرهای مستقل و داده‌های تصادف در فضا استفاده گردیده است همچنین از روش‌های هسته چگالی کرنل به منظور یافتن پهنای باند مناسب جستجوی مشاهدات، رگرسیون وزن دار جغرافیایی و رگرسیون پواسن وزن دار جغرافیایی به منظور بررسی اثرات فضایی تاثیر سهم انواع کاربری‌ها بر وقوع تصادف استفاده شده است. ننایج مطالعه نشان داده‌ است که از بین مدل‌های مذکور مدل محلی GWPR براساس معیارهای صحت سنجی عملکرد بهتری نسبت به مدل جهانی پواسن و مدل محلی GWR دارد همچنین وجود کاربری مسکونی، تجاری، بایر و متروکه و اختلاط مسکونی و غیر مسکونی بیشترین تاثیر را در بروز تصادف دارند. بررسی اثرات فضایی انواع کاربری اراضی در هریک از نواحی ترافیکی در این مطالعه می‌تواند به منظور انجام اقدامات ایمنی بسیار حائز اهمیت باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

کاربری اراضی؛ رگرسیون پواسن وزن دار جغرافیایی؛ رگرسیون وزن دار جغرافیایی؛ تصادف؛ هسته چگالی کرنل

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