The spatial effect of the contribution of land use types in the occurrence of accidents based on traffic area zones (Case study: Shiraz metropolis)

مهندسی عمران فردوسی

Article 1, Volume 36, Issue 3 - Serial Number 43, September 2023, Pages 1-16   

Document Type: Original Article

DOI: 10.22067/jfcei.2023.80945.1214

Authors

mohammad sedigh bavar^{* 1}; Ali Naderan¹; Mahmoud Saffarzadeh²

¹Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

²Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The type of land use in each traffic area zone (TAZ) is the most important factor determining the number of vehicles, geometric and traffic characteristics in that zone. Any factor in the urban environment that causes congestion and attraction of vehicles at certain times increases the probability of an accident in that area.In this study, in order to investigate the effect of the share of the types of uses in each of the traffic areas of Shiraz city on the probability of an accident, a two-step method including the identification of the types of uses influencing the occurrence of accidents as well as spatial effects between independent variables and accident data in space Kernel density estimate (KDE) methods have also been used in order to find the suitable bandwidth for searching observations, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) in order to investigate the spatial effects of the contribution of land use types on the occurrence Accident is used .The results of the study have shown that among the mentioned models, the local GWPR model has a better performance than the global Poisson model and the local GWR model based on validation criteria. Also, the presence of residential, commercial, barren and abandoned uses and the mixing of residential and non-residential use have the greatest impact on They have accidents. Examining the spatial effects of land use types in each of the traffic areas in this study can be very important in order to carry out safety measures.

Keywords

Land use; Accident; shiraz metropolis; Kernel Density Estimate; Geographical Weighing Poisson Regression

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