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تحلیل زمانی- مکانی ابرناکی در ایران | ||
آب و خاک | ||
مقاله 9، دوره 37، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 90، مهر و آبان 1402، صفحه 621-641 اصل مقاله (1.11 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2023.82496.1285 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
آوا غلامی* 1؛ سید حسین میرموسوی2؛ مسعود جلالی3؛ کوهزاد رئیس پور3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکترای دانشگاه زنجان | ||
2دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه زنجان | ||
3استادیار گروه جغرافیا. دانشگاه زنجان | ||
چکیده | ||
ابرها را میتوان به عنوان یکی از پیچیدهترین و تأثیرگذارترین متغیرهای دستگاه نیوار در شکلدهی ساختار اقلیمی کرۀ زمین به شمار آورد. بنابراین، هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی و تحلیل مقدار ابرناکی به لحاظ تغییرات زمانی و مکانی در ایران است که طی یک دورۀ 31 ساله (2021-1991) برای تعداد 93 ایستگاه در پهنۀ ایران به انجام رسیده است. بدین منظور دادههای روزانۀ متغیر ابر از سازمان هواشناسی کشور دریافت گردید و پس از بررسی و پیشپردازش و تبدیل آنها به مقیاسهای سالانه، ماهانه و فصلی، سطح نرمال بودن دادهها با آزمونهای مختلف آماری از قبیل آزمونهای کولموگروف-اسمیرنوف، لیلیفورس و اندرسون-دارلینگ بررسی شد. سپس براساس توزیع نرمال و غیرنرمال سریهای زمانی ابرناکی جهت تشخیص روند دادهها از آزمون رگرسیون خطی بر اساس روش کمترین مربعات خطا و آزمون من-کندال در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد استفاده شد. نتایج سالانه نشان داد تعداد 50 ایستگاه دارای تغییرات معنادار بودهاند که جهت این تغییرات در 47 ایستگاه، کاهشی و تنها در 3 ایستگاه، افزایشی بوده است، در سایر ایستگاهها هیچ روند معناداری مشاهده نگردید. نتایج ماهانه و فصلی نیز بیانگر روند کاهشی مقدار ابرناکی در ماههای سرد سال و فصلهای زمستان و بهار و البته فصل پاییز است. همچنین ارتباط بین عوامل مکانی طول و عرض جغرافیایی با مقدار ابرناکی با استفاده از آزمون ضریب همبستگی پیرسون بررسی گردید که نتایج این آزمون بیانگر همبستگی منفی با طول جغرافیایی و همبستگی مثبت با عرض جغرافیایی است. سپس مقدار ابرناکی و توزیع آن در هر یک از مقیاسهای مورد مطالعه (سالانه، ماهانه و فصلی) در پهنۀ ایران در قالب نقشه نمایش داده شد. بالاترین مقادیر سالانۀ ابرناکی در جنوب و جنوبغربی دریای خزر در ایستگاههای رشت، رامسر، بندر انزلی، نوشهر و بابلسر و بعد از آن در مناطق شمالغرب کشور در ایستگاههای اردبیل، اهر، تبریز، سراب و ماکو و کمترین مقدار در مناطق جنوب و جنوبشرق کشور است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
ابرناکی؛ ایران؛ تحلیل زمانی-مکانی؛ روند | ||
مراجع | ||
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