تحلیل زمانی- مکانی ابرناکی در ایران

آب و خاک

مقاله 9، دوره 37، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 90، مهر و آبان 1402، صفحه 621-641   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2023.82496.1285

نویسندگان

آوا غلامی^{* 1}؛ سید حسین میرموسوی²؛ مسعود جلالی³؛ کوهزاد رئیس پور³

¹دانشجوی دکترای دانشگاه زنجان

²دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه زنجان

³استادیار گروه جغرافیا. دانشگاه زنجان

چکیده

ابرها را می­توان به عنوان یکی از پیچیده­ترین و تأثیرگذارترین متغیرهای دستگاه نیوار در شکل­دهی ساختار اقلیمی کرۀ زمین به شمار آورد. بنابراین، هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی و تحلیل مقدار ابرناکی به لحاظ تغییرات زمانی و مکانی در ایران است که طی یک دورۀ 31 ساله (2021-1991) برای تعداد 93 ایستگاه در پهنۀ ایران به انجام رسیده است. بدین منظور داده­های روزانۀ متغیر ابر از سازمان هواشناسی کشور دریافت گردید و پس از بررسی و پیش­پردازش و تبدیل آنها به مقیاس­های­ سالانه، ماهانه و فصلی، سطح نرمال بودن داده­ها با آزمون­های مختلف آماری از قبیل آزمون­های کولموگروف-اسمیرنوف، لیلیفورس و اندرسون-دارلینگ بررسی شد. سپس براساس توزیع نرمال و غیرنرمال سری­های زمانی ابرناکی جهت تشخیص روند داده­ها از آزمون رگرسیون خطی بر اساس روش کمترین مربعات خطا و آزمون من-کندال در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد استفاده شد. نتایج سالانه نشان داد تعداد 50 ایستگاه دارای تغییرات معنادار بوده­اند که جهت این تغییرات در 47 ایستگاه، کاهشی و تنها در 3 ایستگاه، افزایشی بوده است، در سایر ایستگاه­ها هیچ روند معناداری مشاهده نگردید. نتایج ماهانه و فصلی نیز بیانگر روند کاهشی مقدار ابرناکی در ماه­های سرد سال و فصل­های زمستان و بهار و البته فصل پاییز است. همچنین ارتباط بین عوامل مکانی طول و عرض جغرافیایی با مقدار ابرناکی با استفاده از آزمون ضریب همبستگی پیرسون بررسی گردید که نتایج این آزمون بیانگر همبستگی منفی با طول جغرافیایی و همبستگی مثبت با عرض جغرافیایی است. سپس مقدار ابرناکی و توزیع آن در هر یک از مقیاس­های مورد مطالعه (سالانه، ماهانه و فصلی) در پهنۀ ایران در قالب نقشه نمایش داده شد. بالاترین مقادیر سالانۀ ابرناکی در جنوب و جنوب­غربی دریای خزر در ایستگاه­های رشت، رامسر، بندر انزلی، نوشهر و بابلسر و بعد از آن در مناطق شمال­غرب کشور در ایستگاه­های اردبیل، اهر، تبریز، سراب و ماکو و کمترین مقدار در مناطق جنوب و جنوب­شرق کشور است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ابرناکی؛ ایران؛ تحلیل زمانی-مکانی؛ روند

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