بررسی فصلی تبخیر تعرق مرجع و تحلیل حساسیت آن به عناصر هواشناسی در ایران

آب و خاک

مقاله 10، دوره 37، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 90، مهر و آبان 1402، صفحه 643-657   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2023.83328.1307

نویسندگان

آمنه یحیوی دیزج¹؛ طیبه اکبری ازیرانی^{* 2}؛ شهریار خالدی³؛ خدیجه جوان⁴

¹گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

²دانشگاه شهید بهشتی دانشکده علوم زمین گروه جغرافیای طبیعی

³گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

⁴دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

تبخیر تعرق ترکیب دو فرایند مجزّا، تبخیر از سطح خاک و تعرّق از گیاه است که میزان آن بستگی به عناصر مختلف هواشناسی دارد. از این­رو شناخت عوامل مؤثر و میزان تأثیر هر عنصر بر تبخیر تعرق مرجع (ET₀) حائز اهمیت فراوان است. در پژوهش حاضر، برآورد ET₀ فصلی بر اساس آمار 45 ساله 2020-1976 سازمان هواشناسی 40 ایستگاه همدید به روش فائوپنمن مانتیث 56 محاسبه و بصورت نقشه­های پهنه­بندی ارائه شد. روند تغییرات ET₀ با آزمون­های مَن-کندال و روند نوآورانه (ITA) بررسی شد. به­منظور بررسی میزان تأثیر هر عنصر بر ET₀، ضریب حساسیت فصلی با استفاده از روش Sobol محاسبه شد. بدین­صورت که توزیع آماری عناصر هواشناسی شامل رطوبت نسبی، ساعت آفتابی، متوسط، بیشینه و کمینۀ دما و سرعت باد؛ با محاسبۀ میانگین و واریانس هر پارامتر در دامنه 40%± برآورد شد و سپس با ثابت نگه داشتن هر متغییر، تغییر تمامی متغییرها ضریب حساسیت در مقیاس فصلی ارائه شد. براساس نتایج؛ میزان تأثیرگذاری عناصر هواشناسی در ET₀ در فصول مختلف سال متفاوت است. ضریب حساسیت برای میزان تأثیرگذاری هر عنصر شامل کمینۀ دما با 1/18%، سرعت باد 5/22%، سرعت باد 9/31% و بیشینۀ دما 4/20% به‌ترتیب در فصول بهار، تابستان، پاییز و زمستان رتبۀ نخست را در میزان تأثیرگذاری به خود اختصاص دادند. براساس یافته­های پژوهش حاضر میزان تأثیرگذاری عناصر مختلف هواشناسی بر ET₀ در فصول مختلف تفاوت داشت که این مهم باید در برنامه­ریزی و مدیریت بهینۀ منابع آب کشور مورد توجّه قرار بگیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تبخیر تعرق مرجع؛ روند نوآورانه؛ تحلیل حساسیت سُبُل؛ فائو پنمن مانتیث 56

مراجع

1. Ahmad, M.U.D., Kirby, J.M., & Cheema, M.J.M. (2019). Impact of agricultural development on evapotranspiration trends in the irrigated districts of Pakistan: evidence from 1981 to 2012. Water International, 44(1), 51-73. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2019.1575110
2. Ahmad, N.F.A., Askari, M., Harun, S., Fadhil, A.B., & Demun, A. S. (2017). Sensitivity analysis of a FAO Penman Monteith for potential evapotranspiration to climate change. Jurnal Teknologi, 79(7), 21-30. http://dx.doi.org/10.11113/jt.v79.8377
3. Ahmadi, M., Mirzaei, Z.S., & Dadashiroudbari, A. (2021). Investigation of seasonal distribution and abnormal trend of day and night surface temperature in Iran using MODIS sensor data. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 53(3), 351-364. (In Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22059/jphgr.2021.323144.1007615.
4. Ahmadyan, M., Sobhani., B., & Jahanbakhsh Asl, S. (2023). Evapotranspiration changes of reference Crop during the growth stages of apple tree in Urmia and Semirom cities.. Journal of Applied Researches in Geographical Sciences, 23(70), 21-36. (In Persian with English abstract). http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22287736.1300.0.0.24.7
5. Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Rome: Fao.
6. Amiri, M., & Pourghasemi, H.R. (2019). Comparing different methods of potential evapotranspiration and studying temporal and spatial changes in the Mahalou Watershed using GIS. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 10(19), 22-35. http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22516174.1398.10.19.12.5
7. Babaei, M. (2021). Temporal and Spatial Assessment of Actual Evapotranspiration by Semi- Distributed Model and a Remote Sensing Method. Ph.D. Dissertation in Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran. (In Persian with English abstract)
8. Blyth, E.M., Martinez-de la Torre, A., & Robinson, E.L. (2019). Trends in evapotranspiration and its drivers in Great Britain: 1961 to 2015. Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, 43(5), 666-693. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133319841891
9. Cabral Junior, J.B., de Almeida, H.A., Bezerra, B.G., & Spyrides, M.H.C. (2019). Detecting linear trend of reference evapotranspiration in irrigated farming areas in Brazil’s semiarid region. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138(1), 215-225. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-019-02816-w
10. D’Andrea, M.F., Rousseau, A.N., Bigah, Y., Gattinoni, N.N., & Brodeur, J.C. (2019). Trends in reference evapotranspiration and associated climate variables over the last 30 years (1984–2014) in the Pampa region of Argentina. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(3), 1371-1386. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.316
11. Dinpashoh, Y., & Foroghi, M. (2020). Application of Path Analysis in identification of dominant effective meteorological parameters on ET0 in West Azarbaijan. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20(58), 163-180. (In Persian with English abstract). http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22287736.1399.20.58.10.5
12. Ebrahimi Haftcheshmeh, M. (2019). Zoning of potential reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) in Kermanshah province. Master Thesis in Faculty of Science and Agricultural Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah. (In Persian with English abstract)
13. Fang, M. (2021). Variations and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration During 2010-2019 in the Zhangye Farmland Oasis, Northwest China. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-831426/v1
14. Foroghi, M., Dinpashoh, Y., & Jahanbakhsh Asl, S. (2020). Impact of Climate Change on Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Trends in the west rejoin of Iran. Journal of Climate Research, 1398(37), 21-37. (In Persian with English abstract)
15. Gao, Z., He, J., Dong, K., & Li, X. (2017). Trends in reference evapotranspiration and their causative factors in the West Liao River basin, China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 232, 106-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.08.006
16. Ghafouri-Azar, M., Bae, D.H., & Kang, S.U. (2018). Trend analysis of long-term reference evapotranspiration and its components over the Korean Peninsula. Water, 10(10), 1373. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101373
17. Gong, L., Xu, C.Y., Chen, D., Halldin, S., Chen, Y.D. (2006). Sensitivity of the Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin. Journal of hydrology, 329(3-4), 620-629. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.027
18. Hu, S., Gao, R., Zhang, T., Bai, P., & Zhang, R. (2021). Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration and its climatic drivers over the Tibetan Plateau during 1970–2018. Applied Sciences, 11(17), 8013. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11178013
19. Hwang, J.H., Azam, M., Jin, M.S., Kang, Y.H., Lee, J.E., Latif, M., & Hashmi, M.Z. (2020). Spatiotemporal trends in reference evapotranspiration over South Korea. Paddy and Water Environment, 18(1), 235-259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-019-00777-4
20. Iran Meteorological Organization (2022). Product & Services Database.
21. Javan, K. (2021). Identification of hydrological drought trends in the Lake Urmia Basin. Hydrogeomorphology, 7(25), 138-119. (In Persian with English abstract). https://dx.doi.org/10.22034/hyd.2021.43326.1562.
22. Kang, T., Li, Z., & Gao, Y. (2021). Spatiotemporal variations of reference evapotranspiration and its determining climatic factors in the Taihang mountains, China. Water, 13(21), 3145. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213145
23. Kazemi, M.H. (2020). Evaluation of different data driven methods in estimating reference evapotranspiration. Master Thesis in Faculty of Agriculture, Tabriz University, Tabriz. (In Persian with English abstract)
24. Kendall, M.G. (1948). Rank Correlation Methods. New York:
25. Li, Y., Qin, Y., & Rong, P. (2022). Evolution of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to climate change based on the Thornthwaite, Hargreaves, and Penman–Monteith equation in environmental sensitive areas of China. Atmospheric Research, 273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106178
26. Lin, P., He, Z., Du, J., Chen, L., Zhu, X., & Li, J. (2018). Impacts of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the Qilian Mountains of China: Historical trends and projected changes. International Journal of Climatology, 38(7), 2980-2993. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5477
27. Lorestani, M. (2016). Evaluation and comparison of different (temperature based methods) for estimating reference evapotranspiration in different climates and that's Iran zoning with GIS. Master Thesis in Faculty of Agricultural sciences and engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah. (In Persian with English abstract)
28. Mann, H.B .(1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
29. Mubialiwo, A., Onyutha, C., & Abebe, A. (2020). Historical rainfall and evapotranspiration changes over Mpologoma catchment in Uganda. Advances in Meteorology, 2020, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8870935
30. Niazi, Z. (2016). Evaluation and generalization of Mass transfer-besed methods for calculating Reference Evapotranspiration across of Iran by GIS. Master Thesis in Faculty of Agricultural sciences and engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah. (In Persian with English abstract)
31. Nouri, M., & Bannayan, M. (2019). Spatiotemporal changes in aridity index and reference evapotranspiration over semi-arid and humid regions of Iran: trend, cause, and sensitivity analyses. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(3), 1073-1084. https:// doi.org /10.1007/s00704-018-2543-0
32. Piri, H., & Poozan, M. (2019). Evaluation of 24 models of reference evapotranspiration in different climates of Iran. Iranian journal of Ecohedrilogy, 6(3), 611-622. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22059/ije.2019.277302.1065.
33. Pour, S.H., Abd Wahab, A.K., Shahid, S., & Ismail, Z.B. (2020). Changes in reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in peninsular Malaysia. Atmospheric Research, 246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105096
34. Pravalie, R., Piticar, A., Roșca, B., Sfîca, L., Bandoc, G., Tiscovschi, A., & Patriche, C. (2019). Spatio-temporal changes of the climatic water balance in Romania as a response to precipitation and reference evapotranspiration trends during 1961–2013. Catena, 172, 295-312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.08.028
35. Rahman, M. A., Yunsheng, L., Sultana, N., & Ongoma, V. (2019). Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 131(3), 639-655. https:// doi.org /10.1007/s00703-018-0596-3
36. Sadeghi, A., & Ahmadi, H. (2021). Evaluation of monthly reference evapotranspiration in Iran based on the output of CORDEX-MNA project downscaled dynamic models. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 54(2), 185-202. (In Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22059/jphgr.2022.332856.1007652
37. Sobol, I.M. (2001). Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 55 (1-3), 271-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4754(00)00270-6
38. Sobol, I.M. (1993) Sensitivity Estimates for Nonlinear Mathematical Models. Mathematical Modelling and Computational Experiments, 4, 407-414.
39. Tavoosi, T., Mansouri Daneshvar, M., & Movaqqari, A. (2012). The zonation of aridity intensity in Iran using Hargreaves- Samani evapotranspiration model based on digital elevation model (DEM). Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 2(3), 95-110. (In Persian with English abstract). https://sid.ir/paper/221119/en
40. Wang, Q., Xu, Y., Wang, Y., Zhang, Y., Xiang, J., Xu, Y., & Wang, J. (2020). Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China. Atmospheric Research, 236, 104805. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104805
41. Yahyavi Dizaj, A., Javan, K., Khaledi, S., & Akbari Azirani, T. (2023). Evaluation of changes in reference evapotranspiration in Iran over the last decades. Desert Management, 11(1), 39-58. (In Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22034/jdmal.2023.2000984.1413.
42. Yamamoto, M. (2020). Ensemble simulations of the influence of regionally warm sea surface on moisture and rainfall in Tsushima Strait during August 2013. Atmospheric Research, 238, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104876
43. Yang, L., Feng, Q., Adamowski, J. F., Yin, Z., Wen, X., Wu, M., & Hao, Q. (2020). Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in northwest China based on CORDEX-EA. Atmospheric Research, 238, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104868
44. Yang, Y., Chen, R., Song, Y., Han, C., Liu, J., & Liu, Z. (2019). Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological factors and their elevational gradients in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China. Journal of Hydrology, 568, 147-159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.069
45. Zeraati Neyshabouri, S., Pourreza Bilondi, M., Khashei-Siuki, A., & Shahidi, A. (2022). Efficiency comparison of fuzzy regression models with the penman-monteith method in estimating of monthly reference evapotranspiration of Neyshabour plain. Environment and Water Engineering, 8(1), 205-217. (In Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22034/jewe.2021.283243.1555.
46. Zhang, X., Wang, L., & Chen, D. (2019). How does temporal trend of reference evapotranspiration over the Tibetan Plateau change with elevation?. International Journal of Climatology, 39(4), 2295-2305. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5951
47. Zhou, P., Liu, Z., & Cheng, L. (2020). An alternative approach for quantitatively estimating climate variability over China under the effects of ENSO events. Atmospheric Research, 238, 104897. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104897