بررسی کارایی و ظرفیت صادراتی محصولات زراعی ایران: کاربرد الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 7، دوره 37، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 59، تیر 1402، صفحه 217-230   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2023.83459.1202

نویسندگان

میلاد امینی زاده^{* 1}؛ محسن رفعتی²

¹گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

²موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

صادرات کشاورزی ایران در سال‌های اخیر رشد قابل توجهی داشته است. در این میان محصولات زراعی (کد 07) به دومین گروه مهم صادرات بخش کشاورزی ایران در سال‌های اخیر تبدیل شده است. با این وجود مطالعات اندکی به بررسی ظرفیت‌های صادراتی محصولات زراعی پرداخته‌اند. از این رو هدف این مطالعه بررسی مولفه‌های اثرگذار بر صادرات محصولات زراعی و سنجش کارایی صادرات ایران است. به منظور دستیابی به هدف، الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی براساس داده‌های تابلویی متوازن برای 21 کشور در دوره زمانی 2021-2001 برآورد شد. نتایج بیانگر این است که اندازه اقتصادی و فیزیکی بازار هدف اثری مثبت و معنی‌د‌ار بر صادرات محصولات زراعی ایران داشته‌اند. همچنین مرز مشترک میان ایران و شرکای تجاری و تحریم‌های اقتصادی دارای اثری مثبت و معنی‌دار بر صادرات محصولات زراعی بوده است، در حالی‌که فاصله جغرافیایی میان ایران و کشورهای واردکننده اثری منفی بر صادرات داشته است. نتایج کارایی نشان داد که در دوره زمانی 2015-2021 ایران در هیچ بازار هدفی دارای کارایی 100 درصدی نبوده است و در چهار کشور افغانستان، امارات متحده عربی، کانادا و عراق با کارایی بیش از 50 درصد روبرو بوده است. براساس نتایج، ایران بیشترین پتانسیل صادرات محصولات زراعی را در عراق دارد. در نتیجه، با توجه به اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار مرز مشترک و ظرفیت‌های بالای شرکای تجاری هم‌مرز با ایران، پیشنهاد می‌شود که کشورهای تجاری دارای مرز مشترک مانند عراق در اولویت صادرات محصولات زراعی قرار گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

پتانسیل تجاری؛ صادرات کشاورزی؛ کارایی تجاری

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