بررسی اثر تسهیلات تکلیفی بر تورم در اقتصاد ایران با استفاده از مدل VAR

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 6، دوره 30، بهار و تابستان 1402 - شماره پیاپی 25، مرداد 1402، صفحه 164-200   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/mfe.2023.80093.1263

نویسندگان

سید ابوالفضل وزیری^{* 1}؛ عباس یزدانی²؛ مهدی صادقی شاهدانی³

¹کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)

²دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)

³استاد دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)

چکیده

تسهیلات تکلیفی و اثرات اقتصاد کلان آن به‌ویژه اثر آن بر تورم، همواره از موضوعات موردبحث اقتصاددانان در ایران بوده است. در پژوهش حاضر بر سنجش اثر تسهیلات تکلیفی بر تورم پرداخته شده است. جهت انجام برآورد از داده‌های 29 ساله 1369-1397 استفاده شده و با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون برداری (VAR) این داده‌ها موردسنجش قرار گرفته‌اند. طبق آزمون‌های صورت‌گرفته مشاهده شد که یک درصد افزایش در نرخ تسهیلات تکلیفی اعطایی، شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده را به میزان 0.4 درصد افزایش خواهد داد؛ افزایش یک‌درصدی نرخ بهره اسمی نیز منجر به افزایش 1.25 درصدی شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده می‌شود. همچنین اثر شوک آنی نرخ تسهیلات تکلیفی اعطایی بر شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده و نرخ بهره اسمی معنادار نیست. در ادامه در روش تجزیه واریانس، سهم تکانه‌های واردشده بر متغیرهای مدل مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت و مشخص شد در 5 دوره اول (از 10 دوره) بیشترین خطای پیش‌بینی متغیر نرخ شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده را خود متغیر LCPI توضیح می‌دهد. از دوره 6 تا دوره 8 اما سهم توضیح‌دهندگی نرخ بهره اسمی بیشتر است. در دوره‌های 9 و 10 نیز نرخ تسهیلات تکلیفی اعطایی بیشترین سهم را در توضیح خطای پیش‌بینی متغیر نرخ شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده دارد. باتوجه‌به نتایج پژوهش پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاست اعطای تسهیلات تکلیفی با سایر سیاست‌های موجود ازجمله کالابرگ و حواله خرید در حوزه حمایت از خانوار ضعیف و تأمین مالی زنجیره‌ای در افزایش تولید جایگزین شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تسهیلات تکلیفی؛ تورم؛ نرخ بهره اسمی؛ ناترازی شبکه بانکی؛ خود رگرسیون برداری

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