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Kaviani Rad, M., Golsoomiyan, H., Aftabi, Z. (2023). Scenarios for the Future Water Crisis in Taibad City using a Future Research Approach. , 21(3), 335-364. doi: 10.22067/jgrd.2023.83607.1307
Morad Kaviani Rad; Hamid Reza Golsoomiyan; Zakeyeh Aftabi. "Scenarios for the Future Water Crisis in Taibad City using a Future Research Approach". , 21, 3, 2023, 335-364. doi: 10.22067/jgrd.2023.83607.1307
Kaviani Rad, M., Golsoomiyan, H., Aftabi, Z. (2023). 'Scenarios for the Future Water Crisis in Taibad City using a Future Research Approach', , 21(3), pp. 335-364. doi: 10.22067/jgrd.2023.83607.1307
Kaviani Rad, M., Golsoomiyan, H., Aftabi, Z. Scenarios for the Future Water Crisis in Taibad City using a Future Research Approach. , 2023; 21(3): 335-364. doi: 10.22067/jgrd.2023.83607.1307

Scenarios for the Future Water Crisis in Taibad City using a Future Research Approach

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای
Article 12, Volume 21, Issue 3 - Serial Number 44, September 2023, Pages 335-364    PDF (825.45 K)
Document Type: Research-Case Study
DOI: 10.22067/jgrd.2023.83607.1307
Authors
Morad Kaviani Rad* 1; Hamid Reza Golsoomiyan2; Zakeyeh Aftabi2
1Associate Professor, Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2PhD Candidate in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The main purpose of this study was to compile scenarios for the water crisis in Taibad city. A descriptive-analytical method was used for this study. Seventy-one indicators formulated in the form of 3 main components (management, economic-technical, and geographical-natural components) using library studies and interviews with experts. MICMAC and Scenario Wizard were used for data analysis. The results showed that the key drivers that impact on the water crisis in Taibad city are excessive consumption of water resources in the agricultural sector, inefficient management of water resources, attempts at inappropriate development (measures aimed at unsustainable development), excessive withdrawal from underground aquifers, lack of attention to the water crisis in development plans, and climate change. In line with the key drivers and possible situations, the output of the scenario wizard software in the form of five strong and probable scenarios showed that out of the 18 situations governing the scenario page, the situations that describe the water crisis scenarios in Taibad city as critical are the most possible situations, taking 38.88% of the situations governing the scenario page. Using the results of the research, three groups of scenarios were formulated: The most likely scenario (critical scenario), the scenario with slow changes (continuation of the current trend), and the weakest scenario (ideal scenario). Therefore, the situation facing the water crisis in Taibad city is critical. Forecasting the future of developments related to the water crisis from the point of view of futures research requires addressing governmental management and economic policies and national-local agents in the optimal management of water resources and controlling the repercussions of the crisis.
Keywords
Water Crisis; Future Research Approach; Crisis Situation; Taibad City
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