بررسی آثار سیاست‌های پولی مقابله با تورم بر امنیت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 5، دوره 30، بهار و تابستان25، شهریور 1402، صفحه 140-179   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.2023.79685.1150

نویسندگان

حمید خاوری¹؛ تقی ابراهیمی سالاری^{* 2}

¹دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد پولی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران.

²دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران.

چکیده

 ناامنی اقتصادی به مفهوم وجود ریسک­های محدودکننده رشد اقتصادی است که تا حد زیادی متأثر از سیاست­های اقتصادی کشور است. از طرفی برنامه‎های مقابله با تورم، یکی از مهم‌ترین موضوعات در ادبیات اقتصاد پولی است. این پژوهش به بررسی تغییرات رشد اقتصادی و همچنین شاخص امنیت اقتصادی در ایران می­پردازد. از طریق مدل­سازی اعمال یک سیاست انقباضی پولی برای دوره 1400-1367 با استفاده از الگوی خود بازگشت برداری ساختاری (SVAR)، نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان می‌دهد که تکانه انقباضی وارده بر رشد حجم نقدینگی کشور، واکنش منفی رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه را در کوتاه­مدت به دنبال دارد؛ اما در بلندمدت و به‌تدریج با کاهش تورم، آثار اولیۀ آن تعدیل شده و رشد اقتصادی کشور بهبود می­یابد. بر این اساس نسبت فداکاری تولید (مقدار تولید از دست رفته به ازای 1 درصد کاهش در تورم) محاسبه شده برابر 52/3- به دست می­آید. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، منفی بودن نسبت محاسبه شده، به این معنی است که در اقتصاد ایران، اعمال سیاست پولی جهت دستیابی به یک روند تورمی پایین­تر، دارای وقفۀ اثرگذاری طولانی (حدود پنج سال) است و طی این سال­ها نه ­تنها تولید، کاهش اولیه خود را در طول زمان جبران می­کند، بلکه به میزان 52/3 درصد افزایش نیز می­یابد. همچنین در بررسی رابطۀ شاخص امنیت اقتصادی با تکانۀ منفی سیاست پولی، مشاهده می‌شود واکنشی منفی در کوتاه­مدت دارد که بیشتر به خاطر آثار مستقیم کاهش رشد تولید و همچنین آثار معکوس رشد سطح عمومی قیمت­ها بر شاخص امنیت اقتصادی است. در بلندمدت کاهش تدریجی تورم منجر به ارتقای شاخص امنیت اقتصادی می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ایران؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ امنیت اقتصادی؛ تورم؛ حجم نقدینگی(M2)

مراجع

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