Modeling the Impacts and Consequences of Climate Change on Sustainable Livelihood of Rural Communities (Case study: Rural Households in Mashhad County)

Journal of Research and Rural Planning

دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 44، تیر 2024، صفحه 1-23

نوع مقاله: Original Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jrrp.v13i1.2307-1084

نویسندگان

Mehri Jahansoozi^* ؛ Hossein Farahani؛ Behrooz Mohammadi Yeganeh؛ Jamshid Einali

University of Zanjan, Iran.

چکیده

Purpose- Climate change has negative effects on the economic, social, and environmental aspects of rural households. Given the importance of the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of rural people, this study was conducted with the aim of reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience and adaptation to these conditions in Mashhad Township.
Design/methodology/approach- The statistical population of the study is 11,706 rural households in Mashhad Township, out of which 372 households were selected proportionally by multistage stratified random sampling based on Cochran’s formula. The main tool of the research was a questionnaire whose validity was examined through content validity, structural validity, and reliability by composite reliability and Cronbach’s alpha (a= 0.9). The data were analyzed using SPSS and LISREL software. To examine the fit of the measurement model of the effects of climate change on sustainable livelihoods, the collected data were analyzed using second-order confirmatory factor analysis with LISREL software.
Findings- The results of the study showed that the greatest impact of climate change was on financial capital, including income reduction, increased costs and increased product prices, reduced productivity and employment. In addition, the greatest effects of climate change on social capital include were on reduced sense of belonging and increased dependence on government support; on human capital include a were on reduced health levels and quality of life; and on natural capital include a were on reduced land resources and pressure and occurrence of hazards; and on physical capital were on reduced services and facilities for people. The research findings also showed that the goodness-of-fit indices (AGFI=0.91, GFI=0.91), (NNFI=0.91, CFI= 0.92), and (RMSEA= 0.073, X2/df= 2.97) confirmed an excellent fit of the measurement model of the effects of climate change on sustainable livelihoods with observed data. In addition, the results of structural equation modeling showed that the greatest impacts of climate change among livelihood capitals were respectively related to physical, financial, natural, social and human capitals.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Vulnerability؛ Sustainable Livelihood؛ Sustainable Development؛ Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)؛ Mashhad Township