ارزیابی تأثیر ارزش‌افزوده آموزش بر رشد اقتصادی در استان‌های ایران

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 8، دوره 30، پاییز و زمستان 26، اسفند 1402، صفحه 233-267   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.2024.80427.1162

نویسندگان

مبینا زارعی^{* 1}؛ ُسید پرویز جلیلی کامجو²؛ مهتاب طهماسبی³؛ رامین خوچیانی²

¹دانش آموخته دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

²استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آیت ا... بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران

³دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آیت ا... بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران

چکیده

آموزش‌وپرورش یکی از مهم‌ترین نهادهای اجتماعی است. رابطه بین کیفیت آموزش و عملکرد اقتصادی همیشه از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. این اعتقاد که آموزش‌وپرورش تأثیر مهمی بر رشد اقتصادی و توسعه پایدار دارد، عموماً در بین جوامع مختلف مشترک است. هدف این پژوهش ارزیابی تأثیر متغیرهای ارزش‌افزوده آموزش، مخارج آموزشی سطح عالی و کیفیت آموزشی، نیروی کارآموزش دیده و موجودی سرمایه بر رشد اقتصادی در میان خانوارهای شهری در استان‌های ایران و در بازه زمانی 1398-1385 است. این پژوهش از پانل پویای تصادفی با کاربرد مدل گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته خود رگرسیونی فضایی SAR و با کاربرد ضرایب دومرحله‌ای آرلانو- باور/ بوندل– باند به‌منظور برآورد مدل اقتصادسنجی استفاده خواهد کرد. برای تعیین ماتریس مجاورت از روش مجاورت و همبستگی در قالب یک ماتریس مربعی 28 در 28 استفاده شد. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد وقفه اول متغیر وابسته GMM مثبت و معنادار است یعنی رشد اقتصادی این دوره به رشد اقتصادی سال گذشته بستگی دارد، وقفه اول فضایی SAR نیز مثبت و معنادار بوده و نشان می‌دهد چنانچه رشد اقتصادی در استان موردنظر افزایش یابد، بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌های مجاور نیز اثر مثبت دارد و باعث می‌شود که رشد اقتصادی به مناطق هم‌جوار سرریز شود. ارزش‌افزوده معنادار بوده و با ضریب 12/0 اثر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی دارد، بیشترین اثر مثبت و معنادار را هزینه آموزش با ضریب 53/0 و کمترین اثر مثبت و معنادار را نیز موجودی سرمایه با میزان 0001/0 بر رشد اقتصادی در استان‌های ایران دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

رشد اقتصادی؛ آموزش؛ آرلانو- باور/ بوندل – باند دومرحله‌ای؛ مدل گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته خود رگرسیونی فضایی SAR

مراجع

Agasisti, T., & Bertoletti, A. (2020). Higher education and economic growth: A longitudinal study of European regions 2000–2017. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 100940.‌

Agasisti, T.; Barra, C., & Zotti, R. (2019). Research, knowledge transfer, and innovation: The effect of Italian universities’ efficiency on local economic development 2006− 2012. Journal of Regional Science, 59(5), 819-849.

Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1998). Endogenous growth theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Akinwale, Y., & Grobler, W. (2019). Education, openness and economic growth in South Africa: Empirical evidence from VECM analysis. Journal of Developing Areas, 53(1), 51-64.

Al-Tabbaa, O., & Ankrah, S. (2016). Social capital to facilitate ‘engineered’university–industry collaboration for technology transfer: A dynamic perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 104, 1-15.‌

Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, (Dord drecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers).‌

Arellano, M., & O. Bover. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics 68: 29–51.

Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment. Rev. Econ. Stud. 58, 277–297.

Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data.

Barro, R. J. (2001). Human capital and growth. The American Economic Review, 91(2), 12e17.

Barro, R.J. (2002). Education as a Determinant of Economic Growth, in E.P. Laztored, Education in the Twenty First Century, Hoover Institution Press.

Batabyal, A., & Nijkamp, P. (2013). Human capital use, innovation, patent protection, and economic growth in multiple regions. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 22(2), 113-126.‌

Blundell, R., & S. Bond. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87: 115–143.

Bramwell, A., & Wolfe, D. A. (2008). Universities and regional economic development: The entrepreneurial University of Waterloo. Research policy, 37(8), 1175-1187.

Calcagnini, G.; Favaretto, I.; Giombini, G.; Perugini, F., & Rombaldoni, R. (2016). The role of universities in the location of innovative start-ups. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 41(4), 670-693.‌

Capello, R., & Nijkamp, P. (Eds). (2019). Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories: Revised and Extended Second Edition. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Castelló-Climent, A., & Hidalgo-Cabrillana, A. (2012). The role of educational quality and quantity in the process of economic development. Economics of Education Review, 31(4), 391-40.

Claude, D., & Ralph, H. (2019). The long-run impact of human capital on innovation and economic development in the regions of Europe. Applied Economics. 51(5), 542-563. Available at: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1495820.

Collin, M., & Weil, D. N. (2020). The effect of increasing human capital investment on economic growth and poverty: A simulation exercise. Journal of Human Capital, 14(1), 43-83.

Coulombe, S., & Tremblay, J.F. (2006). Literacy and growth. Topics in Macroeconomics, 6(2). Article 4.

Denti, D. (2009). 12 R&D spillovers and regional growth. Handbook of regional growth and development theories, 211.36.

Derbyshire, J.; Gardiner, B., & Waights, S. (2013). Estimating the capital stock for the NUTS2 regions of the EU27. Applied economics, 45(9), 1133-1149.

Di Liberto A. (2008). Education and Italian regional development. Econ Educ Rev; 27(1):94–107.

Diamond, P. A. (1965). National debt in a neoclassical growth model. The American Economic Review, 55(5), 1126-50.

Diebolt, C., & Hippe, R. (2019). The long-run impact of human capital on innovation and economic development in the regions of Europe. Applied Economics, 51(5), 542-563.

Faggian, A.; Modrego, F., & McCann, P. (2019). Human capital and regional development. In Handbook of regional growth and development theories. Edward Elgar Publishing.‌

Gary, B.; Kevin, M., & Robert, T. (1990). Human capital, fertility, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S1237.

Gheraia, Z.; Benmeriem, M.; Abdelli, H. A., & Saadaoui, S. (2021). The Effect of Education Expenditure on Economic Growth: The Case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Humanities and Social Sciences Letters, 9(1), 14-23.‌

Ghorbani, F.; Sarlak, A., & Haji, Gholam. A. (2019). The effect of human capital and business environment on economic growth. Economic Modeling Scientific Quarterly,14(50). 153-176. (in Persian)

Goczek, Ł.; Witkowska, E., & Witkowski, B. (2021). How Does Education Quality Affect Economic Growth? Sustainability, 13(11), 6437.‌

Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Wilson, M. (2004). Health human capital and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 44(2), 296-320.‌

Habibi, F., & Zabardast, M. A. (2020). Digitalization, education and economic growth: A comparative analysis of Middle East and OECD countries. Technology in Society, 63, 101370.‌

Hajpour Sohrig, S.; Hajpour Sohrig, Z., & Hajpour Sohrig, H. (2021), The role of education in scientific & Economic Progress and Development, https://civilica.com/doc/1626292. (in Persian)             

Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2008). The role of cognitive skills in economic development. Journal of economic literature, 46(3), 607-68.‌

Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2020). Education, knowledge capital, and economic growth. The Economics of Education, 171-182.‌

Hartwig, J. (2010). Is health capital formation good for long-term economic growth? –Panel Granger-causality evidence for OECD countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(1), 314-325.‌

Hegde, D. (2005). Public and private universities: unequal sources of regional innovation? Economic Development Quarterly, 19(4), 373-386.

Hemmati, R.; Ghasemi, V., & Mansourinejad, I. (2019). Higher education and economic development: a comparative study of selected countries of the world. Applied Sociology, 31(3), 75-96. (in Persian)

Hota, S. P. (2023). Education infrastructure, expenditure, enrollment & economic development in Odisha, India. International Journal of Educational Development, 103, 102903.‏

Houshmand, M.; Hassannejad, H., & Ghazelbash, A. (2012). Investment in education and its impact on the economic growth of selected developing countries, Iranian Higher Education Association Quarterly, Year 6, Number 1, pp. 88-106. (in Persian).

Jafari, S.; Esfandiari, M., & Pahlavani, M. (2019). The role of human capital in economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution in the direction of sustainable development in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Applied Economic Studies of Iran. 9(34), 107-77. (in Persian)

Kamali, Dehkordi. P.; Nazari Zaniani, A.; Makian, S. N., & Dehghani Shahzad Begami, F. (2018). The effect of types of capital on the economic growth of selected provinces of Iran. Strategic and Macro Policies. (in Persian)

Kobzev, K. S.; Procházka, P. Smutka, L.; Maitah, M. Kuzmenko, E.; Kopecká, M., & Hönig, V. (2018). The impact of education on economic growth: the case of India. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 66(1), 0253 – 0262.

Laskowska, I., & Dańska-Borsiak, B. (2016). The importance of human capital for the economic development of EU regions. Comparative Economic Research, 19(5), 63-79.

Lesage, J. (1999). Spatial Econometrics. Department of Economics University of Toledo.

Liao, L.; Du, M.; Wang, B., & Yu, Y. (2019). The impact of educational investment on sustainable economic growth in guangdong, China: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis. Sustainability, 11(3), 1-16.

Lilian, N.; Ebrahimi, M.; Zare, H., & Haqit, A. (2022). The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on the economic growth of the agricultural sector in selected Asian countries. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Agricultural Economy Research, 13(2), 109-126. (in Persian)

Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.

Malva, A. D., & Carree, M. (2013). The spatial distribution of innovation: evidence on the role of academic quality for seven European countries. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 22(6), 601-618

Mankiw, N. G.; Romer, D., & Weil, D. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407e437.‌

Mankiw, N. G.; Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1990). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-37. [DOI:10.3386/w3541]

Manzeev. Mohammad, Reza., & Nosrati Reza (2017), the book of advanced econometric models with Eviuz and Esteta, Mehraban Kitab Institute. (in Persian)

Martín, M. A. G., & Herranz, A. Á. (2004). Human capital and economic growth in Spanish regions. International Advances in Economic Research, 10(4), 257-264.

McGrath, S. (2023). Education and development. In Elgar Encyclopedia of Development. Edward Elgar Publishing.‏ (pp. 214-218).

McMahon, W. W. (1998). Conceptual framework for the analysis of the social benefits of lifelong learnings. Education economics, 6(3), 309-346.

Mehrara, Nader. M., & Rezaei, S (2016). Investigating factors affecting Iran's economic growth based on the Bayesian averaging and weighted least squares approach, Scientific Research Quarterly, Economic Growth and Development Research, Year 6, Number 23, pp. 114 -89. (in Persian)

Mercan, M., & Sezer, S. (2014). The effect of education expenditure on economic growth: The case of Turkey. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 109, 925-930.

Mueller, P. (2006). Exploring the knowledge filter: How entrepreneurship and university–industry relationships drive economic growth. Research policy, 35(10), 1499-1508.

Nadiri, Mohammad., & Mohammadi, Timur (2018), Investigating the effect of institutional structures on economic growth with the GMM method, Economic Modeling Quarterly, Year 5, Number 3, pp. 1-24. (in Persian)

Negin Taji, Z., & Zamanzadeh, A. (2021). The effect of education on economic growth in Iran using Bayesian quartile method. Econometric Modeling, 6(2), 65-93. (in Persian)

Nelson, R. R., & Phelps, E. (1966). Investment in humans, technology diffusion and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 56(2), 69e75.

Pegkas, P., & Tsamadias, C. (2014). Does higher education affect economic growth? The case of Greece. International Economic Journal, 28(3), 425-444.‌ ‌

Plabita, B. (2019). Public expenditure on education and economic growth: A state-level analysis in India. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 7(06), 533-539. Available at: https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.7683.

Qi, H. Z.; Fan, S.; Yan, L., & Zheng, L. (2023). The Collaborative Development of Graduate Education and High Economic Quality and its Dynamic Evolution Forecast. Available at SSRN 4535317.

Ramsey, F. P. (1927). A contribution to the theory of taxation. The Economic Journal, 37(145), 47-61.

Romer, D. (2012). Advanced macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

Romer, P. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 99(5), S71eS102. pt. II.

Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.‌

Rozbehan, M. (2008) The book Basics of Economic Development, Taban Publications. (in Persian)

Shakri Abbas. (2009). Macroeconomics Book, Pars Navisa Publications. (in Persian)

Sianesi, B., & Reenen, J. V. (2003). The returns to education: Macroeconomics. Journal of economic surveys, 17(2), 157-200.

Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.

Sylwester. K. (2002). Can education expenditures reduce income inequality? Economics of Education Review, 21(1), 43-52.

Valero, A., & Van Reenen, J. (2019). The economic impact of universities: Evidence from across the globe. Economics of Education Review, 68, 53-67.

Zarei, M.; Jalili Kamjo, S. P.; Jalili, M., & Nadami, Y. (2022). Evaluation of the quality, equality and inclusiveness of education on sustainable development in the provinces of Iran. Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development) 22(3): 217-243. (in Persian)