تغییر اقلیم و تجارت کشاورزی در ایران: تحلیل داده-ستانده پویا

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

دوره 37، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 61، دی 1402، صفحه 451-468   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2024.85467.1227

نویسندگان

علی‌رضا کشاورز؛ زکریا فرج زاده^*

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

در دهه­های اخیر با تشدید پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم، اهمیت این موضوع فزونی یافته است. زیرا ممکن است این پدیده  در کشورهای درحال توسعه و به­ویژه در مورد فعالیت­های کشاورزی، موجب کاهش رشد اقتصادی یا توقف آن شود. می­توان تغییر اقلیم را مهم­ترین و پیچیده­ترین چالش فعلی جامعه بشری تلقی نمود. در همین راستا مطالعه حاضر کوشیده است پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم را در حوزه صادرات و واردات محصولات کشاورزی در طی یک افق 40 ساله و با استفاده از مدل داده-ستانده پویا ارزیابی کند. تغییر اقلیم به­صورت سطوح مختلفی از ناهنجاری دما منظور و پیامدهای آن در بخش­های مختلف اقتصاد ارزیابی شد. یافته­ها نشان داد تغییر اقلیم رشد صادرات و واردات بخش کشاورزی را بشدت تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد. متوسط رشد سالانه واردات کالاهای کشاورزی در شرایط بدون تغییر اقلیم 7/2 درصد است، در حالی­که در شرایط تغییر اقلیم و تحت سناریوهای مختلف افزایش دما به 8/1-1 درصد کاهش می­یابد. مقادیر متناظر برای صادرات کشاورزی به­ترتیب 75/2 و 8/1-55/0 درصد است. افزون بر این، مشخص گردید در شرایط تغییر اقلیم بخش مهمی از تجارت کشاورزی را واردات غلات تشکیل می­دهد. هم­چنین نتایج نشان داد تجارت کل اقتصاد ایران به سمت کالاهای غیرکشاورزی بیش­تر متمایل خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تجارت کشاورزی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ داده-ستانده

مراجع

1. Abbasi, F., Kohi, M., Flamarzi, Y., Javanshri, Z., Malbousi, S., & Babaeian, I. (2019). Investigation and analysis of Iran's annual temperature and precipitation trend (2017-1988). Nivar, 43(106-107), 36-49. https://doi.org/30467/NIVAR.2019.184059.1128
2. Alavi, S.E., & Mohammadi, M. (2023). Freedom and environmental performance: evidence from MENAT countries. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 37(2), 157-176. https://doi.org/10.22067/JEAD.2023.81572.1184
3. AlShehabi, O.H. (2013). Modeling energy and labor linkages: A CGE approach with an application to Iran. Economic Modeling, 35, 88-98.
4. Antonelli, M., Tamea, S., & Yang, H. (2017). Intra-EU agricultural trade, virtual water flows and policy implications. Science of the Total Environment, 587, 439-448. https://doi.org/1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.105
5. Aroche Reyes, F., & Marquez Mendoza, M.A. (2021). Demand-driven and supply-sided input–output models. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 19, 251-267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-020-00229-5
6. Baker, J.S., Havlík, P., Beach, R., Leclère, D., Schmid, E., Valin, H., & McFarland, J. (2018). Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6), 064019. https://doi.org/1088/1748-9326/aac1c2
7. Balogh, J.M., & Jámbor, A. (2020). The environmental impacts of agricultural trade: A systematic literature review. Sustainability, 12(3), 1152. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031152
8. Bourgeon, J.M., & Ollivier, H. (2012). Is bioenergy trade good for the environment?. European Economic Review, 56(3), 411-421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.11.002
9. Burke, M., Hsiang, S.M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature, 527(7577), 235-239. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725
10. Climate Knowledge Portal (CCKP). (2021). https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data
11. Dalagnol, R., Gramcianinov, C.B., Crespo, N.M., Luiz, R., Chiquetto, J.B., Marques, M.T., & Sparrow, S. (2022). Extreme rainfall and its impacts in the Brazilian Minas Gerais state in January 2020: Can we blame climate change?. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 1(1), e15. https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.15
12. Dalir, Z., Farajzadeh, Z., & Zibaei, M. (2021). Economic and environmental driving factors of fires in Iranian forests and the controlling strategies. Agricultural Economics and Development, 29(1), 25-55. https://doi.org/10.30490/aead.2021.292942.1071
13. Dang, Q., & Konar, M. (2018). Trade openness and domestic water use. Water Resources Research, 54(1), 4-18. https://doi.org/1002/2017WR021102
14. Dell, M., Jones, B.F., & Olken, B.A. (2014). What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. Journal of Economic Literature, 52(3), 740-98. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.740
15. Dietz, S., & Stern, N. (2015). Endogenous growth, convexity of damages and climate risk: How Nordhaus' framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions. Economic Journal, 125, 574–620. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12188
16. Donati, F., Aguilar-Hernandez, G.A., Sigüenza-Sánchez, C.P., de Koning, A., Rodrigues, J.F., & Tukker, A. (2020). Modeling the circular economy in environmentally extended input-output tables: Methods, software and case study. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 152, 104508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104508
17. Fankhauser, S., & Tol, R.S. (2005). On climate change and economic growth. Resource and Energy Economics, 27(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2004.03.003
18. (2023). https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/OEA
19. Farajzadeh, Z. (2018). Emissions Tax in Iran: Incorporating pollution disutility in a welfare analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 186, 618-631.
20. Farajzadeh, Z., Bakhshoodeh, M., & Zibaei, M. (2012). A general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalization impacts on agriculture and environment. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(31), 4390-4400. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR12.884
21. Farajzadeh, Z., Ghorbanian, E., & Tarazkar, M.H. (2022). The shocks of climate change on economic growth in developing economies: Evidence from Iran. Journal of Cleaner Production, 372, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133687
22. Farajzadeh, Z., Zhu, X., & Bakhshoodeh, M. (2017). Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts. Economic Modelling, 63, 75-85.
23. Galbusera, L., & Giannopoulos, G. (2018). On input-output economic models in disaster impact assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 186-198. https://org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.030
24. Ghaffari Esmaeili, S.M., Akbari, A., & Kashiri Kolaei, F. (2019). The impact of climate change on economic growth of agricultural sector in Iran (Dynamic computable general equilibrium model approach). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 32(4), 333-342.‏ https://doi.org/10.22067/JEAD2.V32I4.69897
25. Gharibnavaz, M.R., & Waschik, R. (2015). Food and energy subsidy reforms in Iran: A general equilibrium analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, 726–74.
26. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., & Bruno, J.F. (2010). The impact of climate change on the world’s marine ecosystems. Science, 328(5985), 1523-1528. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1189930
27. Hope, C. (2006). The marginal impact of CO₂ from PAGE2002: An integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern. Integrated assessment, 6(1), 19-56.
28. Jabilles, E.M.Y., Cuizon, J.M.T., Tapales, P.M.A., Urbano, R.L., Ocampo, L.A., & Kilongkilong, D.A.A. (2019). Simulating the impact of inventory on supply chain resilience with an algorithmic process based on the supply-side dynamic inoperability input–output model. International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management, 14(4), 253-263. https://doi.org/10.1080/17509653.2018.1555693
29. Jebli, M.B., & Youssef, S.B. (2017). The role of renewable energy and agriculture in reducing CO₂ emissions: Evidence for North Africa countries. Ecological Indicators, 74, 295-301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.11.032
30. Liu, L., Huang, G., Baetz, B., Cheng, G., Pittendrigh, S.M., & Pan, S. (2020). Input-output modeling analysis with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors for climate change policy-making: A case study of Saskatchewan, Canada. Renewable Energy, 151, 1307-1317. https://doi.org/1016/j.renene.2019.11.136
31. Malakootikhah, Z., & Farajzadeh, Z. (2020). Climate change impact on agriculture value-added. Agricultural Economics and Development, 28(3), 1-30. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v34i2.86135
32. Manuel, L., Chiziane, O., Mandhlate, G., Hartley, F., & Tostão, E. (2021). Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Climatic Change, 167(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03139-4
33. Miller, R.E., & Blair, P.D. (2009). Input-output analysis: foundations and extensions. Cambridge university press.
34. Mosavi, S.H., Soltani, S., & Khalilian, S. (2020). Coping with climate change in agriculture: Evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 241, 106332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106332
35. Nordhaus, W.D. (1992). Optimal greenhouse-gas reductions and tax policy in the" DICE" model. The American Economic Review, 83(2), 313-317.
36. Pakmehr, S., Yazdanpanah, M., & Baradaran, M. (2020). How collective efficacy makes a difference in responses to water shortage due to climate change in southwest Iran. Land Use Policy, 99, 104798. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104798
37. Piontek, F., Kalkuhl, M., Kriegler, E., Schultes, A., Leimbach, M., Edenhofer, O., & Bauer, N. (2019). Economic growth effects of alternative climate change impact channels in economic modeling. Environmental and Resource Economics, 73(4), 1357-1385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-00306-7
38. Swiss Re Institute. (2021). The economics of climate change: no action not an option. 13.
39. Tol, R.S. (2009). The economic effects of climate change. Journal of economic perspectives, 23(2), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.2.29
40. Tsigaris, P., & Wood, J. (2019). The potential impacts of climate change on capital in the 21st century. Ecological economics, 162, 74-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.04.009
41. (2017). https://unfccc.int/conference/glasgow-climate-change-conference-october-november-2021.
42. Vatankhah, T., Moosavi, S.N., & Tabatabaei, S.M. (2020). The economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Iran: a CGE model analysis. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 42(16), 1935-1949. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2019.1604903
43. Walters, B.B. (2017). Explaining rural land use change and reforestation: a causal-historical approach. Land Use Policy, 67, 608-624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.07.008
44. Weinzettel, J., & Wood, R. (2018). Environmental footprints of agriculture embodied in international trade: sensitivity of harvested area footprint of Chinese exports. Ecological Economics, 145, 323-330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.013
45. Weitzman, M.L. (2012). GHG targets as insurance against catastrophic climate damages. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 14, 221–244. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01539.x
46. World Bank, (2022). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=IR-1W.
47. Zolanvari Shirazy, S., & Farajzadeh, Z. (2023). Determinants of agricultural export and trade balance in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development, 36(4), 413-429. https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2023.77925.1148