ارزیابی کارایی انواع تبدیل موجک در مدلسازی ترکیبی موجک- شبکه عصبی مصنوعی برای پیش‌بینی جریان ماهانه رودخانه (مطالعه موردی: رودخانه کارده)

آب و خاک

مقاله 2، دوره 38، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 94، خرداد و تیر 1403، صفحه 191-206   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2024.86414.1371

نویسندگان

عاطفه کاظمی چولانک؛ فرشته مدرسی^* ؛ ابوالفضل مساعدی

گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

رواناب پدیده‎ای مهم در چرخه هیدرولوژیکی است، از این رو پیش‌بینی میزان رواناب رودخانه برای اهدافی نظیر برنامه‌ریزی فعالیت‌های کشاورزی، پیش‌بینی سیلاب و تأمین آب مصرفی حائز اهمیت است. پیچیده بودن مدل‏های فیزیکی یکی از دلایلی است که باعث شده پژوهشگران به مدل‏های داده‌مبناء و مبتنی بر هوش مصنوعی روی آورند. وجود تغییرات آماری در داده‌ها سبب می‌شود که مدل‌سازی جریان رودخانه با مدل‌های داده‌مبناء با مشکلاتی در فرآیند یادگیری مدل همراه باشد. لذا لازم است با مدل‌سازی تلفیقی، دقت پیش‌بینی جریان ارتقاء یابد. هدف تحقیق حاضر، ارزیابی کارایی انواع موجک‌های گسسته و پیوسته در مدل ترکیبی موجک-شبکه عصبی (WANN) برای پیش‌بینی جریان ماهانه رودخانه کارده در ایستگاه ورودی به سد کارده است. بدین منظور، دو موجک گسسته Haar و Fejer-Korovkin2 و دو موجک پیوسته Symlet3 و Daubechies2 در ترکیب با مدل ANN مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. بررسی داده‌های هواشناسی و هیدرومتری در یک دوره 30 ساله (1370-1399) نشان داد که جریان ماهانه در دو گام زمانی T-1 و T-2 بهترین متغیرهای پیش‌بینی‌کننده (در سطح اطمینان 95%) بودند. آنالیزهای ترکیبی در سه سطح تجزیه انجام و کارایی مدل‌ها با روش صحت‌سنجی متقاطع در4 سطح مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که مدل‌های ترکیبی دارای دقت بالاتری نسبت به مدل ANN بودند و مدل ترکیبی پیشنهادی Symlet3-ANN در سطح 3، نتایج بهتری نسبت به سایر مدل‎ها ارائه داد، بطوری‌که شاخص‌های R، RMSE و NSE در بخش واسنجی به‌ترتیب 90/0، 25/0 و 81/0 و در بخش صحت‌سنجی به‌ترتیب 85/0، 30/0 و 62/0 بود. همچنین ملاحظه شد دقت نتایج در سطح دو و سه تفاوت معناداری ندارند و بهتر است جهت کاهش مؤلفه‏های ورودی به مدل ANN و کاهش زمان اجرای مدل، تجزیه در سطح دو انجام شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تبدیل موجک؛ صحت سنجی متقاطع؛ مدل هیبریدی؛ موجک پیوسته؛ موجک گسسته

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