The effect of physical development of the city on the occurrence of theft crimes in Mashhad metropolis

جغرافیا و توسعه فضای شهری

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 15 March 2024   

Document Type: Scientific-Research

DOI: 10.22067/jgusd.2024.79192.1254

Authors

mahdi bazargan^* ; Mohammad Rahim Rahnama

Ferdowsi University

Abstract

The spatial growth of each city is in the form of horizontal expansion or vertical growth, each of which has different effects on theft crimes.Urban sprawl has generally caused development in the outskirts of the city,which includes the expansion of defenseless urban spaces, social-ecological anomalies, unemployment, population density, and an increase in crime among its consequences.For this purpose, the present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of the city's spatial development on the occurrence of theft crimes in Mashhad.The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on spatio-temporal analysis models, which were used for data analysis from ArcGIS and TerrSet software and Sentinel-2 satellite images. The variables of the research include the crimes of theft in Mashhad.The results of the research showed that in the period of 2017-2021, the greatest increase in land use was related to built-up lands (4.31 percent) and the greatest decrease in land use was related to barren lands (-2.49 percent) and garden lands, respectively. - Agriculture (-1.83 percent). Also, the results of the research indicate that in the scattered areas towards informal dominant pattern of theft crimes is "new hot spots". "scattered hot spots" and "oscillating hot spots" which indicate the severity of theft crimes in recent years in these areas. However, in the scattered areas towards the areas of Bohrashahr, the dominant pattern of theft crimes is "consecutive cold spots" and "increasing cold spots", which indicates that the theft crimes in these areas are The passage of time is increasing. In total, the investigations showed that 77.27 percent of the theft crimes in Mashhad took place in the areas where the physical-spatial expansion took place, which was achieved by the physical-functional regeneration of defenseless urban spaces through the improvement and change of land use.The amount of theft crimes can be reduced.

Keywords

physical development; urban sprawl; spatio-temporal patterns; theft crimes; Mashhad metropolis

References