تحلیل روند دمای شمال غرب ایران بر اساس مقادیر فرین و ارتباط آن با گردش کلی جو

آب و خاک

دوره 38، شماره 5 - شماره پیاپی 97، آذر و دی 1403، صفحه 647-629   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2024.86169.1366

نویسندگان

خدیجه جوان^* ؛ علیرضا موقری

گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

بررسی تغییرات وقایع حدی ناشی از گرمایش جهانی و تغییر اقلیم و ارزیابی اثرات آنها بر بخش‌های مختلف جامعه بسیار مهم است. هدف از این تحقیق بررسی تغییرات شاخص‌های حدی دما در شمال‌غرب ایران و ارتباط آنها با گردش کلی جو می­باشد. بدین منظور ابتدا با استفاده از داده­های دمای روزانه 20 ایستگاه سینوپتیک شمال غرب ایران در دوره 25 ساله (2010-1986) شاخص­های حدی دما محاسبه شد و سپس نقشه­های توزیع مکانی این شاخص­ها ترسیم گردید. برای بررسی تغییرات گردش کلی جو و تأثیر آن بر وقایع حدی نیز، داده­های گردش جو برای دوره آماری 1985-1961 به‌عنوان نماینده اقلیم پیشین و دوره آماری 2016-1986 به‌عنوان دوره تظاهر تغییر اقلیم بر اساس داده­های باز تحلیل NCEP/NCAR دریافت گردید. سپس نقشه­های تفاضل با استفاده از پارامترهای ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل و چرخندگی نسبی تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال، امگای سطح زمین، ضخامت جو و دمای هوای سطح زمین ترسیم گردید. نتایج بررسی تغییرات شاخص­های حدی نشان داد در اکثر ایستگاه­های شمال­غرب ایران شاخص‌های حدی سرد رو به کاهش است، درحالی‌که شاخص‌های حدی گرم افزایش یافته است. بررسی تأثیر گردش کلی جو بر تغییرات شاخص‌های حدی نیز نشان داد که تقویت گردش آنتی‌سیکلونی و افزایش ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل از طریق افزایش پایداری جو، تغییرات اقلیمی در شمال غرب ایران را تشدید نموده است. بررسی نقشه‌های تفاضل دمای فصلی نیز حاکی از این است که کل منطقه در فصول گرم و سرد سال با افزایش دما و تنها شمال استان آذربایجان غربی اندکی کاهش دمای دوره سرد سال را منعکس می‌سازد که معنادار نمی‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم؛ شاخص‌های حدی دما؛ شمال غرب ایران؛ گردش کلی جو

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