Europe's behavioral pattern towards the Ukraine war (from strategic convergence to passive divergence)

پژوهش ‎های جغرافیای سیاسی

Article 1, Volume 9, Issue 3 - Serial Number 35, October 2024, Pages 1-24   

Document Type: مقالات علمی -پژوهشی

DOI: 10.22067/pg.2024.87165.1276

Authors

Hossein Fattahi Ardakani^{* 1}; Mahmoud Hosseini²

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran

²PhD in Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has caused different behavior from Europe. This war shows us new approaches of solidarity, difference, flexibility and participation in the European Union. The present research, which is organized by descriptive-analytical method, seeks to answer the question, what was the behavior model of Europe towards the war in Ukraine? The findings of the research show that the reaction of the European Union in facing this war was passive and defensive rather than active and fluctuated from strategic convergence to passive divergence. This issue is caused by the widening of the divisions within this union and the different positions of the members following the outbreak of this war. As a result, the vacuum of powerful leadership and the creation of a political divide in the face of Russia (political), the failure to create a realistic vision of the future of energy supply and the chain of food sources (economic), the emergence of social divide in the face of the flood of Ukrainian refugees and in At the same time, emphasizing the need for the unity of both sides of the Atlantic (social) and trying to provide the goals of the European Union's defense-security strategic compass (security) is one of the most important patterns of behavior of the European Union regarding the war in Ukraine.

Keywords

Russia; Ukraine; European Union; security; war

References

1. "1980–1989 The changing face of Europe – the fall of the Berlin Wall". Available at: https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/history-eu/1980-89_en Europa web portal. Retrieved 2023/02/06.
2. "Acquisition of citizenship statistics". Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Acquisition_of_citizenship_statistics. 2023/02/06.
3. "Treaty of Maastricht on European Union". Activities of the European Union. Europa web portal. Retrieved 2023/02/06.
4. Ahmed, S., Hasan, M. M., & Kamal, M. R. (2022). Russia–Ukraine crisis: The effects on the European stock market. European Financial Management, 1–41. https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.12386
5. Anghel, V., & Jones, E. (2022). Is Europe really forged through crisis? Pandemic EU and the Russia–Ukraine war. Journal of European Public Policy, 1-21.‏
6. Ash, T. G., Krastev, I., & Leonard, M. (2023). United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine.‏ Available at: https://ecfr- u.translate.goog/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine/
7. Biscop, S. (2023). From Buffer to Frontier: Ukraine and the EU.‏ Available at: https://www.egmontinstitute.be/app/uploads/2023/02/Sven-Biscop_Policy_Brief_298.pdf.

8. Borrell, Josep. (2022).  The war in Ukraine and its implications for the EU. Available at: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/war-ukraine-and-its-implications-eu_en

9. Bramastya, R., & Puspitarini, R. C. (2022). Geopolitik Ukraina terhadap Rusia dan Uni Eropa . Jurnal Sosial Politik Integratif, 2(2), 94–102. Diambil dari.‏ Available at: http://jisip.org/index.php/jsp/article/view/63
10. CAPRILE, ANNA. (2022). Russia's war on Ukraine: Impact on food security and EU response.‏ Available at: https://policycommons.net/artifacts/2325136/russias-war-on-ukraine/3085667/
11. Della Sala, V. (2023). Ontological security, crisis and political myth: the Ukraine war and the European Union. Journal of European Integration, 1-15.‏
12. Deng, Z., Ciais, P., Tzompa-Sosa, Z. A., Saunois, M., Qiu, C., Tan, C., ... & Chevallier, F. (2022). Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions. Earth System Science Data, 14(4), 1639-1675.‏

13. Dijkstra, H. (2022). The War in Ukraine and Studying the EU as a Security Actor (Vol. 22). Instituto Affari Internazionali.

14. D'Odorico, P., Davis, K. F., Rosa, L., Carr, J. A., Chiarelli, D., Dell'Angelo, J., ... & Rulli, M. C. (2018). The global food‐energy‐water nexus. Reviews of geophysics, 56(3), 456-531.‏
15. Ejdus, Filip, Tijana, Rečević. (2021). “Ontological Insecurity as an Emergent Phenomenon.” European Psychologist 26 (1): 29–44. doi:10.1027/1016-9040/a000419
16. Gaupp, F., & Sillmann, J. (2020). Systemic risks emerging from global climate hotspots and their impacts on Europe (No. EGU2020-4630). Copernicus Meetings.‏
17. Emamian, Seyyed Mohammad Sadegh (2013), stability, political unity and the window of opportunity to realize a multi-level governance system, Sharif governance think tank, available at: spri.sharif.ir. [in Persian].
18. Gehring, K. (2022). Can external threats foster a European Union identity? Evidence from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Economic Journal, 132(644), 1489-1516.‏
19. Guenette, J. D., Kenworthy, P. G., & Wheeler, C. M. (2022). Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy.‏
20. Hafeznia, M. R. (2022). World future scenarios in the light of Ukraine crisis. Geopolitics Quarterly, 18(65), -. [in Persian]
21. Herszenhorn, D. M., Barigazzi, J., & Moens, B. (2022). After Orbán pipes up, Hungary skips Russian oil ban. Politico. available in: https://www.politico.eu/article/orban-hungary-eu-oil-ban-exem
22. Hooghe, L., & Marks, G. (2021). Multilevel Governance and the Coordination Dilemma. A Research Agenda for Multilevel Governance, 19.‏‏
23. Hungary calls for 'European NATO'. (2023). Available at: https://www.rt.com/news/572360-europe-nato-without-us-orban/
24. Impact of war in Ukraine: 2022 annual report. (2022).‏ Available at: https://www.cer.eu/about/annual-report/2022
25. Kuchler, T. (2006). Almunia says' undesirable'to act on Sweden's euro refusal. EUobserver. com. Retrieved, 26.
26. Masters, Jonathan (2022). Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-crossroads-europe-and-russia
27. Mbah, R. E., & Wasum, D. F. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A review of the economic impact of Russian-Ukraine crisis on the USA, UK, Canada, and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3), 144-153.
28. NATO Member Countries". Retrieved 2023/02/06. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm
29. Petrović, M. (2022). european union and ukraine: the strategic partnership leading to (some) where?. Medjunarodni problemi, 74(1), 75-101.‏
30. Pifer, Steven (2022). The Russia-Ukraine war and its ramifications for Russia. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russia-ukraine-war-and-its-ramifications-for-russia/
31. Plume, Karl . (2022). Wheat pulls back from 13-1/2 year peak as Ukraine conflict assessed. (February 26, 2022). available in: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/wheat-pulls-back-13-12-year-peak-ukraine-conflict-assessed-2022-02-25/
32. Reeskens, T. (2022). Are Ukrainian values closer to Russia or to Europe?. LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) blog.‏ Available at: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/04/are-ukrainian-values-closer-to-russia-or-to-europe/
33. RostamAghaei, A., Ghavam, A., & Barzegar, K. (2021). Struggle for Security: A Study on Russia’s Foreign Policy (2014 – 2020). ‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal, 26(112), 34-61. [in Persian]
34. Ruhl, J. B., Posner, S. M., & Ricketts, T. H. (2019). Engaging policy in science writing: Patterns and strategies. Plos one, 14(8), e0220497.
35. Sabbaghian, A., & Sarvestani, A. (2021). The European Union, the Corona Crisis and policies in the purgatory of national governments and transnational institutions. Contemporary Political Studies, 11(4), 293-309. doi: 10.30465/cps.2021.35268.2728. [in Persian].
36. Sakwe Masumbe, P. (2022). Foreign Policy-making, Immorality, Public Opinion, Russia-Ukraine War and a Looming 3rd World War: Challenges, Prospects and Stakes for International Relations and Human Security. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(10). 292-332.
37. Shahzad, U., Mohammed, K. S., Tiwari, S., Nakonieczny, J., & Nesterowicz, R. (2023). Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective. Resources Policy, 80, 103190.‏
38. Soleimani, Yasser. (2022). Analysis of Russia's attack on Ukraine from the perspective of Iran's energy security. Scientific Monthly "Economic Security", 10(5), 69-78. [in Persian]
39. Vidnyanskyj, S. (2022). Україна—Європейський Союз: новий етап взаємовідносин в умовах російсько-української війни 2014–2022 рр. The International Relations of Ukraine: Scientific Searches and Findings, (31), 10-37.‏
40. Wintour, Patrick. (2023). Macron stands by divisive remark about US allies ‘not being vassals, guardian. available in: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/12/macron-stands-by-remark-us-allies-not-vassals-china
41. Zhou, X. Y., Lu, G., Xu, Z., Yan, X., Khu, S. T., Yang, J., & Zhao, J. (2023). Influence of Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Energy and Food Security. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 188, 106657.‏