Compilation of Sustainable Agricultural Development Scenarios in Zayandeh-Rud River Watershed- Isfahan Province of Iran

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

Article 4, Volume 38, Issue 4 - Serial Number 65, January 2025, Pages 429-413   

Document Type: Research Article-en

DOI: 10.22067/jead.2024.89627.1292

Authors

Z. Zarei Dastgerdi¹; Kh. Kalantari^{* 2}; A. Asadi²

¹Agriculture Department, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran

²Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development and rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector are of main concerns of the relevant institutional actors. In this regard, the current research was conducted with the aim of identifying scenarios of sustainable agricultural development in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province. The present research was applied, of descriptive-survey type. The statistical population was experts related to agricultural development in the province. To collect data, library sources, questionnaires and interviews were used. Delphi method and interviews with elites and executives were used to identify the primary components and drivers effective on the sustainable development of agriculture in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province. The snowball technique was used to select the experts. Finally, 8 key drivers were identified and separated in order to explain the research variables in a strategic format. Based on this, in the section related to the expression of research priorities in two direct and indirect modes, these 8 key factors have been repeated in different priorities. Questionnaires were distributed among 25 experts. In this study, five plausible scenarios were identified for forecasting the future of sustainable agricultural development by considering potential outcomes based on key factors and their similarities or differences across the categories of favorable, static, and critical scenarios. Based on their total scores, which range from 85 to 109, two scenarios were identified as the most likely: one favorable scenario and one critical scenario.

Keywords

Agricultural development; Foresight; Scenario planning; Zayandeh-Rud watershed

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