Modeling Customer Purchase Behavior in the Insurance Industry Using System Dynamics

Journal of Systems Thinking in Practice

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 07 آذر 1403

نوع مقاله: Research Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jstinp.2024.89580.1117

نویسندگان

Kambiz Shahroodi^{* 1}؛ Shabnam Jalalat²؛ Mehdi Fadaei³؛ Mahdi Homayounfar³

¹Associate Professor, Department of Business Administration, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

²Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Business Administration, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

³Department of Industrial Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

چکیده

The Iranian insurance industry is a system where various segments such as population, customer types, revenue management, investment methods, and advertising strategies are interconnected in a non-linear and bidirectional manner. Analyzing this industry requires a tool that can consider all significant variables and the interconnections between them in the analysis and simulation. System dynamics is a powerful approach for modeling and simulation that has proven effective in analyzing and predicting the behavior of complex systems, including economic and social systems. Therefore, in this paper, we utilize this tool to model and simulate the impact of advertising on the purchase behavior of life insurance customers and its relationship with revenue and asset management. By reviewing previous studies and conducting surveys with industry experts, we identified the variables affecting life insurance sales and their relationships. The model was drawn, formulated, and validated using Vensim software. The simulation results over a ten-year horizon were analyzed under three scenarios. The first scenario showed that if current conditions continue, life insurance costs will surpass the generated revenue over the ten-year horizon, with the gap gradually increasing. In the second scenario, we examined the impact of increasing the budget for television advertising, internet advertising, and the number of marketers and insurance agents on revenue and costs. The results indicated that a threefold increase in these costs would only prevent the widening gap between revenue and costs, but a difference would still exist. The third scenario revealed that if, in addition to the conditions in the second scenario, the parameter of word-of-mouth advertising increases by just 10%, all costs would be offset, and the company would become profitable.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Modeling؛ Customer Purchase Behavior؛ System Dynamics؛ Life Insurance