The Impact of Drought and Economic Variables on Inter-Provincial Migration in Iran: A Case Study of Three Provinces with Highest Net Migration Rates

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 28 December 2024

Document Type: scientific-research article

DOI: 10.22067/jgrd.2024.90975.1497

Authors

Mahboubeh Ghodratnama¹; Ali Akbar Naji Meidani^{* 2}; Seyed Saeed Malek sadati¹

¹Department of Economics, Economics and Administrative sciences Faculty, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

²Department of Economics, Economics and Administrative science Faculty, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of economic, social, and environmental factors on internal migration in Iran during 2012-2021, focusing on the three provinces with the highest net migration rates. While migration typically occurs in response to unfavorable economic, social, or environmental conditions, it can generate significant spillover effects on both origin and destination communities. These effects encompass changes in demographic structure, labor markets, demand for public services and infrastructure, and even cultural and social patterns. Given the significance of climate change and its implications for population mobility, this study aims to identify key migration drivers in Qazvin, Ardabil, and North Khorasan provinces using microdata from the Iranian Statistical Center’s Labor Force Survey as an alternative to 5 or 10-year census data. The study’s methodology examines individual characteristics of migrants alongside the economic and climatic features that destination provinces possess and origin provinces lack, which serve as migration incentives. To achieve the research objectives, a logistic regression model was employed to analyze migration probability. In the absence of studies examining migration dynamics on an annual basis, particularly considering the rapid pace of economic and climatic changes, this research analyzes internal migration in Iran using annual Labor Force Survey data. The findings indicate that demographic variables such as age, marital status, education, and employment status, along with origin-destination differences in unemployment, Gini, drinking water accessibility, and drought indices, significantly influence migration probability. The research findings, emphasizing the role of economic and environmental factors, can assist policymakers in better understanding migration phenomena and designing effective policies to manage migration flows across different regions of the country.

Keywords

Internal Migration; Drought; Logistic Regression; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; Unemployment