تحلیل اثر نامتقارن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 6، دوره 39، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 66، فروردین 1404، صفحه 116-97   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2025.91069.1319

نویسندگان

رضا حیدری^* ؛ ابراهیم جاودان؛ مهدی شعبان‌زاده خوشرودی

مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

قیمت مواد غذایی شاخص مهمی از رفاه جامعه است و سیاستگذران همواره در تلاش‌اند تا تورم مواد غذایی را کاهش دهند. در این راستا و با هدف کنترل قیمت مواد غذایی، سیاست‏های متفاوتی در ایران نیز به اجرا درآمده که میزان اثرگذاری این سیاست‏ها مورد بحث بوده است. هدف این مقاله، بررسی اثر نامتقارن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی (حجم پول، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، نرخ ارز و درجه باز بودن تجاری) بر تورم مواد غذایی ایران با استفاده از رویکرد غیر خطی خودتوضیح با وقفه‏های گسترده (NARDL) در دوره 2022-1991 می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل NARDL نشان داد که اثر رشد عرضه پول و تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه بر تورم مواد غذایی تنها در بلندمدت نامتقارن بوده و واکنش تورم مواد غذایی نسبت به افزایش و کاهش رشد آنها مثبت و معنادار است و اثر افزایش آنها بر تورم مواد غذایی بیشتر از اثر کاهش آنهاست. همچنین، اثر رشد نرخ ارز بر تورم مواد غذایی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت نامتقارن بوده و واکنش تورم مواد غذایی نسبت به افزایش نرخ ارز مثبت و معنادار است، در حالی‌که اثر کاهش آن اثر معناداری بر تورم مواد غذایی ندارد. اثر متغیر درجه باز بودن تجاری بر تورم مواد غذایی نیز در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت متقارن بوده و افزایش و کاهش آن به میزان یکسان سبب کاهش تورم مواد غذایی می‌شود. بنابراین، طراحی سیاست‌های مؤثر در مدیریت عرضه پول، ذخیره غلات غذایی در طول فصل برداشت، اتخاد سیاست‌های ارزی مناسب، عدم افزایش نرخ ارز برای جبران کسری بودجه و نیز کاهش تعرفه‌ها و محدودیت‌های تجاری در جهت افزایش درجه باز بودن تجاری توصیه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

اثرات نامتقارن؛ تورم مواد غذایی؛ متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی؛ مدل NARDL؛ ایران

مراجع

1. Abdlaziz,A., Khalid, A.R., & Peter, A. )2016(. Oil and food prices co-integration nexus for Indonesia: A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82-87.
2. Adams, S.O., Awujoola, A., & Alumgudu, A.I. )2014(. Modeling Nigeria’s consumer price index using ARIMA model. International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, 2(2), 37-47.
3. Akinbode, S.O., Olabisi, , Adekunle, C.P., & Jimoh, O.M. )2021(. Macroeconomic variables and food price inflation in Nigeria (1980-2018). Journal of Rural Economics and Development, 23(1), 1-11. http://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.313621
4. Alieva, M. )2019(. Do global oil prices drive domestic food prices? Evidence from the Middle East countries. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics, ISSN: 1401-4084, Online publication: http://stud.epsilon.slu.se
5. Alizadeh, M., & Golkhandan, A. )2016(. Investigating and comparing the asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on food prices in oil exporting and importing countries. Journal of Economic Research and Regional Development, 24(14), 122-147. (In Persian). http://doi.org/10.22067/erd.v24i14.60586
6. Amaglobeli, D., Gu, M., Hanedar, E., Hong, G.H., & Thevenot, C. )2023(. Policy responses to high energy and food prices. IMF Working Papers 2023/074.
7. Avalos, A. )2015(. Household consumption response to food price shocks and the vulnerability of the poor in Mexico. Journal of International Development, 28(8), 1294-1312.
8. Ayhan, F., & Kartal, M.T. )2021(. The macroeconomic drivers of non-performing loans (NPL): evidence from selected countries with heterogeneous panel analysis. MANAS Journal of Social Studies, 10(2), 986-999. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3829558
9. Azamzadeh Shooroki, , & Khalilian, S. )2010(. Study of monetary policies effect on food price in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 24(2), 177-184. (In Persian). http://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v1389i2.3933
10. Babatunde, M.A. (2017). Trade openness and inflation in Nigeria: A nonlinear ARDL analysis. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 8(24), 129-148. ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
11. Baffes, J., & Dennis, A. )2013(. Long-term drivers for food prices. The World Bank Policy Research, Work Paper 6455.
12. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Fariditavana, H. )2016(. Nonlinear ARDL approach and the J-curve phenomenon. Open Economies Review, 27(1), 51-70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9369-5
13. Balke, N.S., & Fomby, T.B. )1997(. Threshold cointegration. International Economic Review, 38(3), 627-645. https://doi.org/10.2307/2527284
14. Bawa,, Abdullahi, I.S., Tukur, D., Barda, S.I., & Adams, Y.J. )2020(. Asymmetric impact of oil price on inflation in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 11(2), 85-113. https://doi.org/10.33429/Cjas.11220.4/8
15. Bloom, N. )2009(. The impact of uncertainty shocks. Journal of Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248
16. Bogmans,, Pescatori, A., & Prifti, E. )2021(. Income versus prices: how does the business cycle affect food (in)-security? IMF Working Paper No. 2021/238. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4026440
17. Ceballos, F., Hernandez, M.A., Minot, N., & Robles, M. )2017(. Grain price and volatility transmission from international to domestic markets in developing countries. Journal of World Development, 94, 305-320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.015
18. Central Bank of Iran. )2023(. https://www.cbi.ir/page/4275.aspx
19. Chen,, Gummi, U.M., Lu, S.B., & Mu'azu, A. )2020(. Modelling the impact of oil price fluctuations on food price in high and low-income oil exporting countries. Journal of Agricultural Economics, Czech, 66, 458-468. https://doi.org/10.17221/197/2020-AGRICECON
20. Dávila, O.G. )2010(. Food security and poverty in Mexico: The impact of higher global food prices. Food Security, 2, 383-393.
21. Depren, Ö., Kartal, M.T., & Depren, S.K. )2021(. Recent innovation in benchmark rates (BMR): evidence from influential factors on Turkish Lira overnight reference interest rate with machine learning algorithms. Journal of Financial Innovation, 7(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/1186/s40854-021-00245-1
22. Eslamloueyan, K., Shafiee Sarvestani, M., & Jafari, M. )2010(. The impact of trade openness on main macroeconomic variables in Iran (1961-2007). Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 14(43), 1-21. https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3445.html
23. Ezzati Shourgholi, A., & Khodavaisi, H. )2019(. Investigating the asymmetric exchange rate pass through to domestic prices. Iranian Journal of Economic Strategy, 8(30), 161-200. (In Persian)
24. Flachsbarth, I., & Garrido, )2014(. The effects of agricultural trade openness on food price transmission in Latin American countries. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 12(4), 927-940. https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2014124-6292
25. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). )2023(. FAOSTAT. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home
26. Garcimartín, C., Astudillo, , & Martínez, A. )2021(. Inflation and income distribution in Central America, Mexico, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. Review of Development Economics, 25(1), 315-339.
27. Ghahremanzadeh,, Pishbahar, E., & Khalili-Malekshahi, S. )2017(. The effect of macroeconomic variables on food inflation in Iran: An ‎application of structural vector error correction model (SVECM)‎. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 47(4), 773-784. (In Persian).
28. Ghahremanzadeh,, Samadpour, M., & Hosseinzad, J. )2023(. The effects of agricultural trade openness on food price in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 36(4), 363-376. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2022.73620.1098
29. Haj-Seyedjavadi, M., & Heydari, R. (2023). Applying hybrid models based on deep machine learning in smart agriculture (case study: forecasting the future price of pistachios). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 37(3), 289-307. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2023.79545.1165
30. Husaini, D.H., & Lean, H.H. (2021). Asymmetric impact of oil price and exchange rate on disaggregation price inflation. Journal of Resources Policy, 73, 102175, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102175
31. Ibrahim,H. (2015). Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis. Journal of Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-014-0020-3
32. Ismaya, B.I., & Anugrah, D.F. )2018(. Determinant of food inflation: The case of Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 21(1), 81-94. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v21i1.926
33. Jafari Samimi, A., & Farajzade, Z. )2019(. Factors affecting food price index in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 11(41), 1-16. (In Persian).
34. Javdan, E., Raheli, H., & Naghdi, R. )2015(. Analysis of factors affecting food price in Iran with emphasis on oil shocks. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 7(26), 179-195. (In Persian).
35. Jiansheng, L. (2018). The effect of money supply on the prices of different agricultural products. Journal of Agriculture and Life Sciences, 5(2), 51-56.
36. Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2006). Testing for cointegration in nonlinear smooth transition error correction models. Journal of Econometric Theory, 279-303.
37. Kartal, M.T., & Depren, Ö. (2023). Asymmetric relationship between global and national factors and domestic food prices: evidence from Turkey with novel nonlinear approaches. Journal of Financial Innovation, 9, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
38. Kayamo, S.E. (2021). Asymmetric impact of real exchange rate on inflation in Ethiopia: a non-linear ARDL approach. Journal of Cogent Economics and Finance, 9:1, 1986931, http://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1986931
39. Khan,, Yousaf, H., Mohammad, N., Khan, M., & Thao, D.T. (2019). Nexus between money supply and food prices: An empirical evidence from China. Journal of Innovative Sciences, 5(1), 36-39. https://doi.org/10.17582/journal.jis/2019/5.1.36.39
40. Kohansal, M.R., & Hezareh, R. (2017). The impacts of oil price shocks, exchange rate on food prices in urban areas of Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 8(32), 171-190.
41. Köse, N., & Ünal, E. (2022). The effects of the oil price and temperature on food inflation in Latin America. Journal of Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-27. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02817-2
42. Kouton, J. (2018). An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between openness and inflation in Côte d’Ivoire. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, ISSN: 2146-4138. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.7095
43. Layani, Gh., & Mehrjou, (2023). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate and oil price changes on food and agricultural product prices in Iran: application of NARDL approach. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 37(1), 35-48. (In Persian). http://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2022.74721.1113
44. Lee, H., & Park, C. (2013). International transmission of food prices and volatilities: a panel analysis. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series363.
45. Lidiema, C. (2020). Trade openness and crude oil price effects on food inflation: examining the Romer hypothesis in Kenya. Journal of World Economic Research, 9(2), 81-90. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20200902.12
46. Long, S., Li, J., & Luo, T. (2022). The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on international grain prices. Journal of Commodity Markets, 30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2022.100273
47. Meyer, D.F, Sanusi, K.A., & Hassan, A. (2018). Analysis of the asymmetric impacts of oil prices on food prices in oil-exporting, developing countries. Journal of International Studies, 11(3), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2018/11-3/7
48. Montes-Rojas, G., & Toledo, F. (2021). External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynes-ian-structuralist empirical approach. Journal of Review of Political Economy, 34, 789-80.
49. Narayan, , & Narayan, P.K. (2007). Understanding asymmetries in macroeconomic aggregates: The case of Singapore. Journal of Applied Economics Letters, 14, 905-908. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500461563
50. Olayungbo, D., & Hassan, W. (2016). Effects of oil price on food prices in developing oil exporting countries: a panel autoregressive distributed lag analysis. Journal of OPEC Energy Review, 40(4), 397-411. https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12090
51. Olayungbo, D.O. (2021). Global oil price and food prices in food importing and oil exporting developing countries: A panel ARDL analysis. Journal of Heliyon, 7(3), e06357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06357
52. Osei, J.O. (2022). The asymmetric impact of oil price dynamics on inflation in Brazil. European Journal of Economics, 2(2), 39-50. https://doi.org/10.33422/eje.v2i2.251
53. Pal, D., & Mitra, S.M. (2019). Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: a multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach. Journal of Resource Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101508
54. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
55. Psaradakis, Z., Sola, , & Spagnolo, F. (2004). On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(1), 69-88. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.729
56. Putri,N., Fitrawaty, & Ayu, S.F. (2019). Analysis of the effect of gross domestic product and price of food commodities on inflation in Indonesia. In Proceedings of the 1st Unimed International Conference on Economics Education and Social Science (UNICEES 2018), pages 473-480. https://doi.org/10.5220/0009502404730480
57. Ramedoust Bonab, M., Alomran, R., Panahian, H., & Asgharpour, H. (2023). Investigating the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the macroeconomic variables of Iran in the short and long-term using the NARDL technique. Economic Growth and Development Research, 13(50), 28-13. https://org/10.30473/egdr.2022.57978.6179
58. Ruel, M., Garrett, J.L., Hawkes, C., & Cohen, M.J. (2010). The food, fuel, and financial crises affect the urban and rural poor disproportionately: a review of the evidence. Journal of Nutrition, 140(1), 170-176.
59. Salisu, A.A., Isah, K., Oyewole, O.J., & Akanni, L.O. (2017). Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: the role of asymmetries. Journal of Energy, 125, 97-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.128
60. Samal, A., Ummalla, M., & Goyari, Ph. (2022). The impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation: An evidence from India. Future Business Journal, 8, 15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-022-00127-7
61. Sarwar, M.N., Hussain, H., & Maqbool, M.B. (2020). Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach. Journal of Resources Policy, 69, 101876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101876
62. Sek, S.K. (2017). Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling. Journal of Energy, 130, 204-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.152
63. Shamsoddini, S., Ghobadi, S., & Daei-karimzadeh, S. (2021). Impact of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks on price of agricultural products in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 35(1), 93-104. https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2021.67922.1007
64. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In: Sickles, R.C., Horrace, W.C., ediots. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications. New York, NY: Springer. P:281-314. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1807745 or https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745
65. Sriyana, J. (2019). Price stabilization policy in an emerging economy: An asymmetric approach. Journal of International Studies, 12(2), 165-181. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-2/10
66. Tarazkar, M.H., & Sheikhzeinoddin, A. (2019). The impacts of asymmetric oil shocks on agricultural commodity price: Application of nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) approach. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 11(41), 81-100. (In Persian).
67. Tiwari, A.K., Rabeh, K., Sakiru, A.S., & Muhammad, S. (2018). Analyzing the time-frequency lead-lag relationship between oil and agricultural commodities. Journal of Energy Economics, 76, 470-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.037
68. Umar, U.A., & Umar, (2022). Effects of exchange rate on food Inflation in Nigeria: a non-linear ARDL approach. Gusau International Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 5(1), 195-209. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362219290
69. Wen, J., Khalid, S., Mahmood, H., & Zakaria, M. (2021). Symmetric and asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on food prices in China: A new evidence. Journal of Resources Policy, 74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102247
70. Wong, K.K.S., & Shamsudin, M.N. (2017). Impact of crude oil price, exchange rates and real GDP on Malaysia's food price fluctuations: symmetric or asymmetric? International Journal of Economics and Management, 11(1), 259-275. ISSN 1823-836X.
71. World Development Indicators (WDI). (2023). https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&country=ARE
72. Zmami, M., & Ben-Salha, (2019). Does oil price drive world food prices? Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling. Journal of Economies, 7(1), 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7010012