Simulating the Impact of Blood Donation Policies on Donor Behavior in the Blood Supply Chain During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Journal of Systems Thinking in Practice

دوره 4، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 13، شهریور 2025، صفحه 78-100   

نوع مقاله: Research Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jstinp.2025.91912.1142

نویسندگان

Somayeh Fadaei¹؛ Alireza Pooya^{* 1}؛ Farzad Dehghanian²؛ leila Kasraian³

¹Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

²Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

³Blood Transfusion Research Center, High Institute for Research and Education in Transfusion Medicine, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, spread globally, disrupting various aspects of daily life and significantly affecting blood transfusion services and donation patterns. One of the primary factors contributing to the decline in donations was the fear and safety concerns of donors about contracting the virus at donation centres. This created immense pressure on blood transfusion facilities. To prevent a shortage of blood products, it became crucial to maintain donor engagement throughout the pandemic. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 on blood donor behaviour and evaluates two strategies aimed at mitigating the decrease in donations: increasing public awareness through advertising and enhancing donation accessibility via mobile units. Using system dynamics modelling, a simulation was conducted with real data from 2018 to 2022.  The results show a significant decline in first-time, sporadic, and repeat donors during the pandemic. While advertising policies initially increased donations, their effectiveness waned over time due to overcrowded donation centres and ongoing safety concerns. In contrast, the mobile unit strategy consistently increased donations, without experiencing a subsequent decrease. These findings underscore the importance of adaptive, context-sensitive policies to ensure a stable blood supply during public health crises.

کلیدواژه‌ها

COVID-19؛ Blood donation incentive policies؛ Fear and safety concerns؛ Ease of donation؛ Advertising

مراجع

Abolghasemi, H., Maghsudlu, M., Kafi-Abad, S.A. and Cheraghali, A., 2009. Introduction to Iranian blood transfusion organization and blood safety in Iran. Iranian Journal of Public Health, 38(1), pp.82-87. URL: http://journals.tums.ac.ir/upload_files/pdf/13361.pdf.

Cheraghi, S. and Hosseini-Motlagh, S.M., 2020. Responsive and reliable injured-oriented blood supply chain for disaster relief: a real case study. Annals of operations research, 291(1), pp.129-167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-3050-5.

Dehghani Saryazdi, M. and Owlia, M.S., 2014. Analysis of knowledge management effectiveness on business excellence using system dynamics. Research in Production and Operations Management, 5(1), pp.39-52. URL: https://jpom.ui.ac.ir/article_19805.html?lang=en. [ in persian].

Diabat, A., Jabbarzadeh, A. and Khosrojerdi, A., 2019. A perishable product supply chain network design problem with reliability and disruption considerations. International journal of production economics, 212, pp.125-138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2018.09.018.

Dorner, L. and Csordás, G., 2025. Psychological Determinants of Blood Donation During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hungary. Indian Journal of Hematology and Blood Transfusion, 41(2), pp.363-369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12288-024-01867-y​

Feeny, S. and Clarke, M., 2007. What determines Australia's response to emergencies and natural disasters?. Australian Economic Review, 40(1), pp.24-36. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2007.00439.x.

Haghjoo, N., Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R., Shahmoradi-Moghadam, H. and Rahimi, Y., 2020. Reliable blood supply chain network design with facility disruption: A real-world application. Engineering applications of artificial intelligence, 90, p.103493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2020.103493.

Hakami, N.Y., Al-Sulami, A.J., Alhazmi, W.A., Qadah, T.H., Bawazir, W.M., Hamadi, A.Y., Owaidah, A.Y., Alhefzi, R.A., Hamdi, F.Y., Maqnas, A. and Alghassab, G.F., 2022. Impact of COVID‐19 on Blood Donation and Supply: A Multicenter Cross‐Sectional Study from Saudi Arabia. BioMed Research International, 2022(1), p.1474426. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1474426.

Hamdan, B. and Diabat, A., 2020. Robust design of blood supply chains under risk of disruptions using Lagrangian relaxation. Transportation research part E: logistics and transportation review, 134, p.101764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2019.08.005

Hess, J.R. and Thomas, M.J.G., 2003. REVIEW Blood use in war and disaster: lessons from the past century. Transfusion, 43(11). https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1537-2995.2003.00576.x

Jahani, Y., 2020.Modeling the covid-19 epidemic in Iran. Research project of Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Health Modeling Research Center https://mhrc.kmu.ac.ir/fa/page/47888/1398.

Kazemi Babaahmadi, N. and Kheirandish, M., 2023. COVID-19 and Transfusion. Scientific Journal of Iran Blood Transfus Organ, 20(1), pp.66-80. URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-1482-fa.html [ in persian].

Kazemibabaahmadi, N. and Kheirandish, M., 2022. SARS-COV-2 Virus; immune responses and the immunopathogenesis. Scientific Journal of Iran Blood Transfus Organ, 19(1), pp.75-97. URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-1439-fa.html[ in persian].

Lazovic-Lønningen, A., 2020. How wearing a mask and practicing physical (social) distancing is changing the shape of Covid-19 pandemics spread curve in Serbia? System Dynamics analysis (Master's thesis, The University of Bergen).

Moghimisfandabadi, A., Shishebori, D., Fakhrzad, M.B. and Khademi Zare, H., 2023. Analysis of social entrepreneurship: supply of blood products in the conditions of Corona with the tool of the multi-objective model of the supply chain. Journal of Entrepreneurship Development, 15(4), pp.685-697. https://doi.org/10.22059/jed.2022.344115.653976. [ in persian].

Montazeri Takhti, L., Eslami, H. and Mazidi, A.M., 2016. Survey of the attitude of blood donors towards the publicity efforts of Iranian Blood Transfusion Organization in Bandar Abbas, Iran. Scientific Journal of Iran Blood Transfus Organ, 13(1), pp.45-53. URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-920-fa.html[ in persian].

Moslemi, M., Salavati, M., Azimi, M., Mahinolghorabai, M., Sharifi, S. and Mehran, M., 2008. Psychological effects of blood donation on repeat and first time donors in Tehran Blood Transfusion Center. Scientific Journal of Iran Blood Transfus Organ, 5(3), pp.167-172. URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-258-fa.html[ in persian].

Raghuwanshi, B., Behera, P., Singh, P., Khan, R., Munshi, R., Patil, A. and Chouhan, S., 2022. Blood supply management amid COVID 19 pandemic: Challenges and strategies. Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, 11(6), pp.2363-2368. https://doi.org/10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_701_21.

Ranjbarian, P., 2008. Comparison of positive HBsAg prevalence in first-time, repeat, and regular blood donors for the purpose of selecting donors in Hamedan Blood Transfusion Center. Scientific Journal of Iran Blood Transfus Organ, 4(5), pp.359-363. URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-206-en.html.

Raturi, M. and Kusum, A., 2020. The blood supply management amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Transfusion Clinique et Biologique, 27(3), pp.147-151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tracli.2020.04.002.

Rehman, A.U., Mian, S.H., Usmani, Y.S., Abidi, M.H. and Mohammed, M.K., 2023. Modelling and analysis of hospital inventory policies during COVID-19 pandemic. Processes, 11(4), p.1062. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr11041062.

Reich, P., Roberts, P., Laabs, N., Chinn, A., McEvoy, P., Hirschler, N. and Murphy, E.L., 2006. A randomized trial of blood donor recruitment strategies. Transfusion, 46(7), pp.1090-1096. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1537-2995.2006.00856.x.

Seyfi-Shishavan, S.A., Donyatalab, Y., Farrokhizadeh, E. and Satoglu, S.I., 2023. A fuzzy optimization model for designing an efficient blood supply chain network under uncertainty and disruption. Annals of operations research, 331(1), pp.447-501. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-021-04123-y.

Siu, J.Y.M., Chan, E.A., Li, A.S.C. and Lee, Y.M., 2025. Barriers to Engaging in Blood Donation During the COVID‐19 Pandemic Among Nondonors and Lapsed Donors in a Chinese Community: A Critical Medical Anthropology Perspective. Health Expectations, 28(2), p.e70236. https://doi.org/10.1111/hex.70236.

Spekman, M.L., Ramondt, S., Quee, F.A., Prinsze, F.J., Huis In't Veld, E.M., van den Hurk, K. and Merz, E.M., 2021. New blood donors in times of crisis: increased donation willingness, particularly among people at high risk for attracting SARS‐CoV‐2. Transfusion, 61(6), pp.1822-1829. https://doi.org/10.1111/trf.16334

Sterman, J.D., 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. MacGraw-Hill Company.

Swanson, A., 2020. Global trade sputters, leaving too much here, too little there. The New York Times. April 10 Kilubi, I. (2016). Investigating current paradigms in supply chain risk management–a bibliometric study. Business Process Management Journal, 22(4), 662-692.

Thomas, S.A., Feng, S. and Krishnan, T.V., 2015. To retain? To upgrade? The effects of direct mail on regular donation behavior. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 32(1), pp.48-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2014.09.001.

Thomas, S.A., Feng, S. and Krishnan, T.V., 2015. To retain? To upgrade? The effects of direct mail on regular donation behavior. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 32(1), pp.48-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2014.09.001

Veseli, B., Sandner, S., Studte, S. and Clement, M., 2022. The impact of COVID-19 on blood donations. PLoS One, 17(3), p.e0265171. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265171.

Weng, J., Xu, Y., Xie, C., Tian, Y., Wang, F. and Cheng, Y., 2024. Research on the effectiveness and strategies of new media in promoting voluntary blood donation from a public health perspective in the post-pandemic era. Frontiers in Public Health, 12, p.1436909. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1436909.

Zou, S., 2006. Potential impact of pandemic influenza on blood safety and availability. Transfusion Medicine Reviews, 20(3), pp.181-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmrv.2006.03.001 .