شبیه‌سازی مراحل رشد گیاه سیب‌زمینی در ایران تحت سناریوهای RCP با استفاده از مدل WOFOST

آب و خاک

مقاله 6، دوره 39، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 100، خرداد و تیر 1404، صفحه 218-193   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2025.92402.1471

نویسندگان

فاطمه بیاتانی¹؛ غلامعباس فلاح قالهری^{* 2}

¹گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه جیرفت، جیرفت، ایران

²گروه جغرافیا و گردشگری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران

چکیده

در این تحقیق به ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر مراحل رشد گیاه سیب­زمینی در سطح کشور پرداخته شد. به این منظور ابتدا میانگین تولید و سطح زیر کشت هر استان طی سال­های 1395-1361 محاسبه و سپس از میان استان­هایی که بیشترین سطح زیر کشت و تولید را داشتند، 10 ایستگاه به‌عنوان مراکز اصلی تولید سیب­زمینی کشور انتخاب شدند. در ادامه جهت شبیه­سازی اقلیم آینده از آمار دما، بارش، میانگین رطوبت­نسبی، سرعت متوسط باد و ساعات آفتابی استفاده شد. برای شبیه­سازی پارامترهای اقلیمی در آینده از داده­های مدل گردش کلی CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP، برای دوره 2100-2011 استفاده شد. برای ریزگردانی خروجی مدل CanESM2 از نرم‌افزار آماری SDSM و برای شبیه­سازی مراحل رشد سیب­زمینی از مدل WOFOST استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد طول مراحل فنولوژیکی گیاه سیب­زمینی در دوره آینده تحت سناریوهای RCP کاهش می­یابد. به‌طور متوسط در مناطق مورد مطالعه حداکثر کاهش طول مرحله سبز شدن ۳/۲ روز، مرحله گلدهی ۴/۲ روز و مرحله سبز شدن تا رسیدگی 7/6 روز می­باشد. بیشترین کاهش در طول مراحل فنولوژیکی سیب­زمینی در سناریوی RCP8.5 در دوره سوم (2100-2071) ثبت شده است. از نظر ایستگاهی بیشترین کاهش طول مراحل فنولوژیکی مربوط به ایستگاه همدان و اردبیل و کمترین کاهش در ایستگاه­های جنوبی رخ داد. بنابراین با توجه به نتایج حاصله می­توان نتیجه گرفت که مناطق سردسیر کشور بیشتر از مناطق گرمسیر کشور تحت تأثیر اثرات تغییر اقلیم در رابطه با دوره رشد این محصول خواهند بود، همچنان که متغیرهای اقلیمی این مناطق تحت تأثیر شرایط گرمایش جهانی بیشترین افزایش دما (حداقل و حداکثر) و بیشترین کاهش بارش را داشتند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییراقلیم؛ سیب‌زمینی؛ مدل SDSM؛ مراحل فیزیولوژیکی

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